| | Francois,
I really wish I had the time and was going to be around to comment further on your article, as these kinds of speculations interest me (to a certain extent) and because I see flaws in the professor's position that are new to the "brain in a vat" argument.
For example:
Given that the number of future simulated beings far surpasses the number of living beings, the argument goes, we must conclude that it is probable we are simulated beings as well. That is, it is probable that we are part of the simulations of the human species from the future; we are nothing but a reproduction of the state of Earth as programmed by the real, technologically-advanced humans.
This contains a self-refuting premise. He is assuming that eventually technology will exist to create such a simulation. Well, by assumption then, at one point in time such technology did not exist. Therefore, there is nothing to refute the notion that we are living in such a time (before simulations), since someone must have done so.
Later:
Actually, there is something else I must tell you. The argument I have refuted is not quite the one Bostrom made. Rather, he proposes three possibilities: "(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a 'posthuman' stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation (see www.simulation-argument.com)."
Is this meant to be collectively exhaustive? Because, if so, it is certainly false. There is, at least, option (4): we are living in a society that simply pre-dates such computer simulations.
Like the "brain in the vat" scenario, these proposals have to assume the very things they deny: brains, vats, etc., etc.
And one quibble:
I can think of two more objections to the "simulated reality" hypothesis, on theoretical grounds. One fact that seems problematic to me is that we are able to discuss this hypothesis. If this reality is controlled by people running a simulation, then why haven't they hard-coded obstacles to discussion of the simulation, or at least have seen that it was under discussion and stopped Dr. Bostrom's research?
Well, since we don't know how to do AI, it may very well be the case that the kinds of constraints you're suggesting are incompatible with AI. That is, hard-coding such constraints might be inconsistent with a functioning AI, i.e., it could represent a form of severe computer "brain" damage.
Regards, Kernon
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