| | Mindy:
By worst case scenario, you mean the restoration of the Caliphate? Probably. I mean, we're talking about folks who at the pointy end of their stick, can't light a fuse in their own damn sneakers. OTOH, they are incredibly persistent, have long memories, and are low maintenance. Their fringe warriors are leading a billion or so people with very little to lose in this world, except hope. (The Muslim world is way more complex than that. I've done business in places from Qatar and Bahrain to Bangladesh over the years, and unfortunately for the balance of the Muslim world and maybe world, period, it is too little U.A.E. and too much Bangladesh, but that is moot.) And, as we speak, the dark ages is procreating its way to taking over Europe.
At our present level of national economic stress, it wouldn't take much to knock us to our knees. Hell, we're doing it to ourselves, without their help, by willy nilly self poisoning the rules of commerce. Their best bet at this point could be to just wait and watch us self destruct.
Nobody reads the future quite so clearly, especially me, so caveat emptor. But people are something else, they are easy to read. So, I've been wondering for decades, 'How is this going to actually work?' As a young man, just out of grad school, I listened to my management order me to fake customer test data, for no reason, decided I couldn't do that, and quit on the spot. I left without a plan, without a clue, without a client list. But, I knew I couldn't work for them. It was my first and last job as an employee, 26 years ago. I asked myself then, "How does a mob of fools like this stay in business?" And of course, they didn't. Not because I left, but because they were idiots. But, they were idiots that had gotten away with it for years, and who had wrestled a ton of money away from the unsuspecting, foisting crap for value. And what I've observed since, as an outside consultant, is that this isn't all that rare; the bigger the mob, the higher the incidence of incompetents hanging on by their fingernails, cutting corners, and committing outright crime and corruption. An odd corollary to Gresham's Law is at work in our nation, and probably elsewhere as well. Gresham's Law, after all, is really about value.
Modernity, to me, seems like we have been enjoying a few generations of totally unpowered flight, riding an arc from great heights. Flying, we freshly believe, is more or less effortless. Well, gliding might be, but how did we get up here?
If only it were just gliding. That was the 50's, we've evolved...
Carcass carving is also effortless. Parasitism is. Sprinting from the Ivy Leagues to Wall Street to stare at the scoreboard and bet on the game using OPM is. And, when all of that is rewarded thousands of times what beast building is, who in their right mind for long is going to want to continue to build beasts in America especially when there is so much carcass to carve? You can hear it in FedEx CEO 'FredEx's voice, when he ponders his own 'reasonable' 15% asset value leverage rules, compared with Wall Streets self imposed 3000%+ leverage rules. It has clearly written itself quite some set of rules; wake up and smell the mob.
Actually being in the game, and beast building is something else altogether. Not all, but way too many of our self acclaimed 'best and brightest' decided long ago that beast building was what suckers did.
Until now. Because the bones are beginning to show after decades of all that imbalanced carcass carving. Now, the nervous pols are making speeches about what 'America must do' to compete, and so on. Education, science, technology, working hard, but yet, as a last resort, as we cling to the irrationality of wishing for our Nerf World, provided by others... not taking 'risk.' And by 'risk' we have totally conflated the 'risk' that someone takes in Vegas when they bet on the scoreboard with borrowed money, and the 'risk' that a beast builder takes when he risks his own skin to build beast in an insane tribe intent on rigging the rules in favor of the carcass carvers, by creating some kind of perverted upside down 'free-for-some', where success is punished to reward and subsidize failure. What was once tolerated at the fringes by the millions has rapidly become billions and is on its way to trillions as we speak. It is undeniably spiraling out of control, reaching its inevitable conclusion. Well, some are saying, screw that. So indeed...how is this model going to work?
All of the graceless lifeboat war rat-fighting we are witnessing is, I think, not the cause of our global economic stress, it is a result of an impersonal boundary condition, the relatively sudden loss of dirt simple geopolitical 2D surface gradient. What we are seeing is exactly what we should expect to see, in an end-game.
It's not like one day 2D surface gradient is suddenly all consumed, and yet, at the rate it was consumed in the end, it might as well have been. In the end, our technological range (the ability to exert command, control, communication and conduct commerce at a distance) has overwhelmed the surface of the planet, significantly obliterating the concept of frontier. (I don't mean 'overwhelmed' as in 'dominated', I mean 'overwhelmed' as in 'far exceeded'.) Not totally, and not completely, but at a rate and extent that significantly changed the nature of what drives economies that has exceeded our collective tribal systemic ability to rationally adapt.
It's not that this change hasn't also created great opportunities -- it clearly has. But, it was the rapid shift of domain of those opportunities to increasingly intellectual frontiers which has caused the broad stress. The rate at which we are adapting to increasingly intellectual frontiers is causing a shift, a displacement, that our nation -- and a world pushing ten billion -- is not keeping up with. IMO, that displacement is the stress we are witnessing, and the sideshow-- the stress on governments and people and economies, the rat cake end game lifeboat wars we are witnessing, and even, the broad global cultural conflict between the remnants of the dark ages and modernity as modernity struggles to transition to a new modernity, are all effects of not adapting to this displacement.
It's not that the 'old' dirt simple 2D surface growth paradigm did not have intellectual frontiers; it clearly did. But it had more than that, it was broader than that. Said simply, there were opportunities for both steel plant builders and steel plant workers. The nature of frontier as gradient maker is, there are broad opportunities all along the gradient, all the way from 'new world' to 'old world', and not just at the frontier. The required displacement from that boundary condition to the present(where 2D surface growth paradigm concept of 'frontier' is all but consumed by our technological range)is not happened as quickly and as smoothly as it would need to without appearing to be a painful end game of some kind.
It is an end game of sorts, it is the end game of the 2D surface growth paradigm here on the surface of the earth, a boundary condition that -nascent modernity- has only ever experienced before briefly, at the beginning of the last dark ages, and one that now mature modernity is freshly experiencing anew.
And, our pols are focused on propping up a 17.5 million unit/yr auto industry in the face of a 12 million unit/yr demand.
Because this paradigm shift does not occur plainly and cleanly, it occurs in sometimes brutal fits and starts. It seems sometimes, literally, as I read somewhere once long ago, that we are "paradigm shifting without the clutch."
As in, the world during this and last century.
regards, Fred
(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 3/17, 9:22am)
|
|