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Post 0

Monday, October 2, 2006 - 7:19amSanction this postReply
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Recently, several frequently articulated objections to tax cuts for upper-income individuals have been brought to my attention.
I would rather see tax cuts for everybody.
Objection 1: What if the wealthy invest the money gained from their tax cuts in foreign nations? Especially if faith in the U.S. economy is weak, they will tend to invest elsewhere. Thus, the government will lose out on that money. The wealthy will essentially take U.S. dollars and give them to China, thus not helping our economy.
In a way, it does "help." It exports America's inflation. China has been happy to absorb it. I am reading articles indicating that there is now about one trillion dollars in China. Doug Casey believes that China's boom is artificial and has resulted from their willingness to import American inflation. He thinks gold is going to "go to the moon."




Post 1

Tuesday, October 3, 2006 - 9:21amSanction this postReply
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Mr. Baker,

Thank you for your comments.

You wrote: "I would rather see tax cuts for everybody."

I agree. A tax cut which reduced every taxpayer's burden would be the most desirable. However, I would argue that any degree of tax cuts-- for any group of individuals-- would ultimately be beneficial to everyone, since the individuals receiving the cuts would have more of an incentive to be productive and innovative. I take the worst-case scenario proposed by opponents of tax cuts-- i.e., the notion that the cuts will only benefit "upper-income individuals," by whatever definition-- and show that even that outcome would be superior to the absence of tax cuts.

Thank you also for the interesting point regarding the exportation of American inflation to China. On the other hand, I have read that one of the reasons why the United States government has not yet imploded from its gargantuan debt burden is that Chinese investors-- with extremely high savings rates of about 40% of their incomes-- are ever willing to purchase U. S. Treasury bonds, thereby delaying the day when the U. S. government would have to default on repaying its loans. If both of these occurrences are indeed real, this means that American investors are propping up the Chinese economy, while Chinese investors are preventing the American government from what would be a collapse of massive proportions. How long will this last? Only time will tell.

I am
G. Stolyarov II




Post 2

Tuesday, October 3, 2006 - 11:47amSanction this postReply
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GS,
I agree. A tax cut which reduced every taxpayer's burden would be the most desirable. However, I would argue that any degree of tax cuts-- for any group of individuals-- would ultimately be beneficial to everyone, since the individuals receiving the cuts would have more of an incentive to be productive and innovative.
Some would be more beneficial than others.
Thank you also for the interesting point regarding the exportation of American inflation to China. On the other hand, I have read that one of the reasons why the United States government has not yet imploded from its gargantuan debt burden is that Chinese investors-- with extremely high savings rates of about 40% of their incomes-- are ever willing to purchase U. S. Treasury bonds, thereby delaying the day when the U. S. government would have to default on repaying its loans.
I don't think anyone around the world wants to see the American dollar collapse. My guess is that it will be a slow exit from the dollar--one country at a time, a million here, a million there. Only the early birds benefit from a run on the bank. Most of the people are left with paper, and the bank is closed.

Doug Casey is generally pessimistic, but he always has good reason. He also points out that bull markets in gold have lasted at least ten years. The current bull market is only five years old. Doug actually thinks gold should be about $21,000 per ounce!

The Chinese won't finance American debt forever. But he knows the corrupt leadership there wants to keep them boom going. If they have a recession, they may be toppled. Doug believed that Japan's long recession was caused by their re-evaluation of the Yen.

I was not aware of China's high savings rate. The US currently has essentially no savings rate. People spend money as fast they get it.

In this sense, a tax cut for the lower classes could be more beneficial. But any tax cut is better than none.
Chinese investors are preventing the American government from what would be a collapse of massive proportions. How long will this last? Only time will tell.
Casey thinks the US is a lot like Germany right now before its hyperinflation. The problem is that any recession or depression here would spread around the world.

Another interesting point Doug made in his latest newsletter is that car sales are reaching a very low point. Low car sales are also indicative of a bad economy.




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Post 3

Wednesday, October 4, 2006 - 6:46amSanction this postReply
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Economics really does seem like "the dismal science." I just assume everything an "economist" says is mumbo-jumbo and tricky, ultra-boring nonsense. It's also usually statist rubbish, not libertarian. Still, I assume everything economic-expert Gennady Stolyarov says is right, so there's a bit of a conflict here.

In general, I assume everything socio-economic freedom produces and decides is right (minus the ineluctable, individual human errors). So it makes no difference to me, and is none of my business, whether some free agent "saves" his money or "spends" it. Both even seem like "investment" to me, altho' maybe someone can correct me. All that seems to matter in the save/spend choice is whether the actor does this freely (and hopefully rationally and insightfully). Such liberal economic behavior quickly raises his wealth, and ultimately raises the wealth of all.

But I do wonder one thing which perhaps Mr. Stolyarov or others can enlighten me on: What is the pro-freedom, pro-wealth value of the government paying its bills and reducing the deficit and even (mirabile dictu) building up a surplus (investment ) vs. the ubiquitous and loathsome advocacy of mindless tax cuts which nitwit conservatives and libertarians always seem to champion? I certainly think paying down government debt is more sound economically and more pro-freedom than tax cuts, and yet I've NEVER heard an Objectivist, libertarian, or Austrian/Chicagoan argue this. I hope I'm wrong, but there might be a terrible lacuna in liberal politico-economic theory here. 

Maybe Rand, Rothbard, and even von Mises let us all down here by unthinkingly, sloppily advocating tax cuts, and not clearly articulating the superior libertarian value of a balanced budget. Sorry to make everyone think here, but I really want to understand this.     




Post 4

Wednesday, October 4, 2006 - 7:29amSanction this postReply
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I agree with Andre. What is the world coming to?

I agree that a government or any institution should be committed first to paying its debts. Tax cuts may seem nice, but spending cuts are desperately needed. We can start with the military.

A tax cut can yield more revenue, however. Here's an example. You have 10-cent tax on a pack of cigarettes and a person buys ten packs a week. That yields $1 in revenue. Let's say you raise it to 11 cents, and then the person buys nine packs a week. That yields only 99 cents. The lower tax in this case brought in a little more revenue.

Cutting back many regulations would also be a boon to economic growth. That would bring in more revenue.




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Post 5

Wednesday, October 4, 2006 - 4:26pmSanction this postReply
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Andre observed:

So it makes no difference to me, and is none of my business, whether some free agent "saves" his money or "spends" it. Both even seem like "investment" to me, altho' maybe someone can correct me.

I support this broad definition of investment more readily than I support the narrow version commonly used in strict economic parlance.  Since all the wealth one earns and accumulates must ultimately go somewhere, i.e. "you can't take it with you," one can only spend it on his values economically over his expected lifetime.  In other words, he must invest it in those values that serve his life in some way if he wants to live rationally.  It makes perfect sense to spend part of it on purchasing assets that will grow and generate income, i.e. the traditional definition of "investment," that he can then use to purchase even more of his other values.  It makes no sense whatsoever to accumulate a pile of gold for its own sake while one lives like a pauper and dies in obscurity with not even a will to bequeath the gold to someone or some cause one values.




Post 6

Thursday, October 5, 2006 - 9:16amSanction this postReply
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That's a good argument, Luke.




Post 7

Monday, November 27, 2006 - 8:33pmSanction this postReply
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Greetings, all.

My apologies for not responding for a long time. I have been extremely busy in the past months and have been able to attend to my online correspondences only sporadically. I will try to answer some comments here:

Mr. Zantonavitch: In general, I assume everything socio-economic freedom produces and decides is right (minus the ineluctable, individual human errors). So it makes no difference to me, and is none of my business, whether some free agent "saves" his money or "spends" it. Both even seem like "investment" to me, altho' maybe someone can correct me. All that seems to matter in the save/spend choice is whether the actor does this freely (and hopefully rationally and insightfully). Such liberal economic behavior quickly raises his wealth, and ultimately raises the wealth of all.

Mr. Stolyarov: I agree that there is nothing wrong, in principle, with consumption per se-- if freely chosen by autonomous agents for the purpose of increasing their actual quality of life and happiness. Indeed, the purpose of every economic good-- even a capital good far removed from the actual consumer-- is to eventually bring about consumption of some kind. The purpose of so-called investment goods is to bring about increased consumption at a later time at the cost of less consumption sooner. Some kinds of investment also need to occur at a regular basis simply to replace capital goods that have deteriorated (such as worn-out machinery or depleted inventories). If one's old capital stock is not replaced, then future productive capacity (be it for an individual or an entire economy) will decline.

It is possible, however, to distinguish between wise and unwise consumption and investment given the assumption that every rational individual wishes to maintain at least his present standard of living:

1) It is unwise to consume so much and invest so little that one cannot maintain one's standard of living into the future.
2) It is unwise to invest so much and consume so little that one's present standard of living seriously suffers as a result. (I.e., becoming malnourished as a result of a desire to save the vast majority of one's earnings is general not a good idea).

This is not to say that anyone should be compelled to abstain from unwise consumption or investment; left to their own devices, individuals learn to make the above distinctions by themselves at an amazing pace. They will suffer, deservedly, if they do not-- not by the agency of other men, but by the nature of reality itself.

That said, people getting tax rebates and either saving or spending the money engage in neither unwise consumption nor unwise investment. My purpose in writing this article was to defend investment of tax rebates against the accusation that it is inherently bad-- something you and I will certainly agree that it is not. If the taxpayers decide instead to use their money to consume more-- it is unlikely that this will harmfully affect them, unless particular ones are in massive debt or the equivalent. I do not criticize such decisions to consume; I merely point out that they will not lead to the same growth of consumption capacity in the future than investing the money would. Whether specific individuals wish to increase their future capacity to consume is their decision entirely; I can imagine instances where certain people would be perfectly content with their present living standards, and justifiably so.

Mr. Zantonavitch: What is the pro-freedom, pro-wealth value of the government paying its bills and reducing the deficit and even (mirabile dictu) building up a surplus (investment ) vs. the ubiquitous and loathsome advocacy of mindless tax cuts which nitwit conservatives and libertarians always seem to champion? I certainly think paying down government debt is more sound economically and more pro-freedom than tax cuts, and yet I've NEVER heard an Objectivist, libertarian, or Austrian/Chicagoan argue this. I hope I'm wrong, but there might be a terrible lacuna in liberal politico-economic theory here. 

Mr. Stolyarov: I, too, would support a balanced budget in an ideal world, but one thing that I categorically refuse to sanction in bringing it about is any increase in taxes of whatever form or degree. Tax increases tend not to work to balance budgets, because government spending tends to increase to fill the amount of money which short-sighted politicians can access in any time period. If taxes are raised in an attempt to reduce the deficit, spending will rise in proportion to the tax increase, while the deficit will either increase or remain the same. Tax cuts-- or so it is thought in some circles-- are intended to "starve the beast" by denying politicians the very ability to expand spending beyond a certain scope. Sure, the government can borrow some money to spend beyond its means, but it cannot borrow beyond a certain point; the purpose of a tax cut is to constantly pull that point downward and thus stimulate a reduction in spending. Mr. Baker also makes good points regarding a tax cut's ability to generate government revenue. There is a well-known model of this in supply-side economics: the Laffer Curve, which shows how overall government tax revenues only increase to a certain point as the tax rate increases, and then tend to decrease after that-- largely because the taxes generate deadweight economic losses, discourage productive activities, and motivate people to move their money from more productive sectors to less economically efficient "tax shelters."

That said, however, tax cuts are far from the best way of alleviating the deficit-- and they only work if they are dramatic enough to actually strain the government's spending capacity. Spending cuts would be far more important and more effective-- but they are also far more politically difficult. Lowering taxes is politically popular and immediately visible to the populace, whereas the people seldom notice obscure government programs which take a million here, a million there, and tend to benefit highly concentrated special interests that strongly lobby for them. The only way a serious spending cut can occur is if politicians of principle implement it for the very sake of limiting government and promoting its fiscal responsibility. Alas, such politicians have been virtually absent in the mainstream political arena today.

If I had any control over this, I would focus on spending cuts as a priority and use any surplus tax revenue to repay the national debt. At the least, I would make sure that-- to accompany any tax cut-- a larger spending cut was instituted. But, again, that is for a world more perfect than ours-- perhaps a world that can be attained in the future...

Mr. Setzer: It makes no sense whatsoever to accumulate a pile of gold for its own sake while one lives like a pauper and dies in obscurity with not even a will to bequeath the gold to someone or some cause one values.

Mr. Stolyarov: Such a person would definitely partake in unwise investment under my definition-- investment which serves to purpose to anyone and undermines the very end it is meant ultimately to accomplish. I think no rational investor would want to live like the pauper you describe.

I am
G. Stolyarov II




Post 8

Tuesday, November 28, 2006 - 2:38amSanction this postReply
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Always a distinct pleasure to hear from Gennady Stolyarov. If Mr. Stolyarov only posts to Rebirth of Reason, and not to other Objectivist sites, then guess what? That makes all the other Objectivist sites inferior. If they have any virtue and intelligence to speak of, they need to compete for his attention and articles.
 
As for any lateness in his reply above, I can hardly complain. I actually meant to reply to something he wrote on a different subject a l-o-n-g time ago.
 
I don't really dispute anything in Post #7. The investment/consumption comments, in particular, seem insightful and wise. But I may have a few quibbles. ;-)
 
Altho' not an economist like G$II, I tend to think deficit spending is quite important. Dick Cheney was wrong to say in 2003: "Deficits don't matter." The federal deficit, to my way of thinking, causes confidence to fall all across the economy. Investment declines. So does long-term thinking -- which tends to be much more rational and wise. And interest rates and inflation rise, which causes new problems, and exacerbates the old.
 
Moreover, experience seems to show that cutting taxes irresponsibly, a al Ronald Reagan, does not really restrain gov't spending. But moderately raising taxes, especially on the rich, a al Bill Clinton, really can work, and perhaps restrain the gov't. Or at least it did with him. Clinton seemed to take pleasure in getting his/our house in order, and eschewing Keynesianism, and pursuing sound economics.
 
Finally, I note that when it comes to domestic policy, George Bush seems to have just one thing in his head: "Cut taxes." I think this is a kind of walking disaster. I most desperately wish I could open up his pea brain and replace those two words with two of my own: "CUT SPENDING." In fact, I want these two words on the top of the list of every politico on earth for the next half a century! I think the improvement on the economy of America and the whole world would be radical. It would even fix Bush's foreign policy significantly, in my view.
 
Just a few quibbles!  




Post 9

Tuesday, November 28, 2006 - 12:47pmSanction this postReply
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I know a very easy way for the federal government to cut spending right now.




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Post 10

Monday, December 4, 2006 - 1:00pmSanction this postReply
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Greetings.

Mr. Baker: I know a very easy way for the federal government to cut spending right now.

Mr. Stolyarov: I am interested in what this way would be.

Mr. Zantonavitch: Always a distinct pleasure to hear from Gennady Stolyarov. If Mr. Stolyarov only posts to Rebirth of Reason, and not to other Objectivist sites, then guess what? That makes all the other Objectivist sites inferior. If they have any virtue and intelligence to speak of, they need to compete for his attention and articles.

Mr. Stolyarov: I am honored by these words. I thank you, likewise, for your insightful, civil, and intelligent discourse-- which I have observed throughout my interactions with you. It is always a pleasure to discuss ideas with you in this way.

Mr. Zantonavitch: The federal deficit, to my way of thinking, causes confidence to fall all across the economy. Investment declines. So does long-term thinking -- which tends to be much more rational and wise. And interest rates and inflation rise, which causes new problems, and exacerbates the old.

Mr. Stolyarov: All true; I agree with you that the Bush administration has largely ignored the deficit to its own peril, and the consequences of this in the long run might even be increased public support for tax increases by a future Democratic government.

It is also true that the government became vastly more fiscally responsible under the Clinton administration-- though it is essential to note that, while Clinton was the one who raised taxes, the Republicans in Congress after the 1994 "Contract with America" were the ones who cut spending so as to create a net surplus. Bill Clinton went along with their proposals, of course, because Clinton was a pragmatist politician, not a principled one. He leaned left in his own convictions and policy proposals, but he understood that these were not tenable given the public opinion of his time; since he valued political power and popularity over his principles, he caved in to (positive) pressure from the Republican-dominated House.

Of course, since then, the Republican Party has steadily lost its principled element-- as many of those who gained Congressional seats in 1994 became disillusioned with the political dynamics in Washington and left. Now we have in office a pragmatist Republican, who is as willing to compromise with the Democrats as Clinton was to compromise with the Republicans. Whenever we see a pragmatist of any stripe in office, his opponents will be the ones to gain in influence and get their preferred policies passed. Hence the increase in federal spending and the number and scope of government regulations and redistributive schemes under the Bush administration.

I am
G. Stolyarov II




Post 11

Monday, December 4, 2006 - 4:40pmSanction this postReply
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Mr. Stolyarov: I am interested in what this way would be.
Cut all foreign aid. Adopt a moral foreign policy, based on self-defense, not unrestrained aggression.
It is also true that the government became vastly more fiscally responsible under the Clinton administration-- though it is essential to note that, while Clinton was the one who raised taxes, the Republicans in Congress after the 1994 "Contract with America" were the ones who cut spending so as to create a net surplus.
They didn't cut spending. It just didn't grow as fast as it has under other administrations.
Of course, since then, the Republican Party has steadily lost its principled element-- as many of those who gained Congressional seats in 1994 became disillusioned with the political dynamics in Washington and left.
They never had any principles. Some of them are still there. Others got thrown out.
Whenever we see a pragmatist of any stripe in office, his opponents will be the ones to gain in influence and get their preferred policies passed. Hence the increase in federal spending and the number and scope of government regulations and redistributive schemes under the Bush administration.
That's a good observation on pragmatists. For six years, Bush had a congress that was supposedly with him, not against him. I think history is going to judge Bush as harshly as it has judged Nixon and Johnson. Both were irresponsible profligate spenders who believed in socialism and eternal war.




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