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Post 0

Monday, March 24 - 6:52amSanction this postReply
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Our most successful theories are phenomenological, NOT ontological.

The figure of merit for a scientific theory is how well it predicts outcomes.

The most successful classical theory was statistical mechanics, which predicted ensemble measurements, not specific events. We deal with gases (for example) statistically. Maxwell's Electrodynamics fails to explain the photoelectric effect and the Compton Effect. For that one needs quantum physics. Maxwell's theory does not predict tunneling through a potential barrier either.

The most successful theory of all time (bar none) is the Standard Model for particles and fields based squarely on relativity and quantum field theory.

Scientific theories are for predicting outcomes of measurements and experiments. We do not know why things fall (gravitation) but we know HOW things fall.

Bob Kolker




Post 1

Monday, March 24 - 5:32pmSanction this postReply
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Bob,

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Our most successful theories are phenomenological, NOT ontological.
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Using words in the way that you are, can you provide an example of an ontological scientific theory -- in order to differentiate from the phenomenological kind?



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The figure of merit for a scientific theory is how well it predicts outcomes.
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This seems to be a poor understanding of the word "merit." Apparently, then, you disagree that the success of science involves -- nay, is entirely exhaustible by -- the amount of human merit which applying the science provides. We may have to simply disagree about that. For you, there seems to be no morality in the floating abstraction: "science."

For me, science is something that humans do for very specific reasons (i.e., it is a moral undertaking).



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Maxwell's Electrodynamics fails to explain the photoelectric effect and the Compton Effect. For that one needs quantum physics. Maxwell's theory does not predict tunneling through a potential barrier either.
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Approximately what proportion of all of the benefit that science has ever afforded to mankind -- would be covered by the sum of these 3 things?:

(1) the photoelectric effect
(2) the Compton Effect
(3) tunneling through potential barriers

My guess is less than 1% (and perhaps less than even 1% of 1%!). What's your guess, Bob?


Ed



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Post 2

Monday, March 24 - 6:38pmSanction this postReply
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The success of science involves not simply successful prediction, but also explanatory coherence. As I recall, a few philosophers of science have posited explanation as a big part. I associate explanatory coherence particularly with Paul Thagard, author of Conceptual Revolutions and several other books.

I regard Thomas Kuhn's hypothesis as a sociological explanation of scientific revolutions and Thagard's hypothesis as an epistemological one.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 3/24, 6:43pm)




Post 3

Tuesday, March 25 - 5:55amSanction this postReply
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Any theory that fails the predictive accuracy test is either demoted to a heuristic or discarded.

Predictive accuracy is a necessary condition that any scientific theory must meet.

There are other figures of merit, but predictive accuracy and internal consistency are first and foremost. For example, extendability and generality are desirable features of a theory. There are also aesthetic considerations. But beauty is no substitute for truth.

Bob Kolker




Post 4

Tuesday, March 25 - 5:22pmSanction this postReply
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Bob,

Please contemplate responding to any or all of my points in post 1.

Ed



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