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Post 0

Wednesday, May 21 - 2:10pmSanction this postReply
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The Debate is Over

I'm a sucker for the History Channel's disaster shows. So when they advertised "Last Days on Earth" seven ways the world could end, I set my DVR and got the popcorn ready. The topic was not really the destruction of Earth, but the extinction of man. The seven causes were (1) Rogue Black Hole (2) Artificial Intelligence (3) Supervolcano (4) Asteroid Strike (5) Nuclear War (6) Plague & (7) Climate Change. A Gamma Ray burst in our galactic neighborhood was also discussed.

The show was two hours long. By the end of the first hour they had breezed through the astrological and geological threats, and glossed over AI. They were discussing a man-made plague as the last half hour approached. A Soviet scientist named Popov discussed how easy it would be to make a 100% lethal strain of smallpox.

Having spent my childhood knowing that the mystery had to be solved in the last 10 minutes of the show, or it would be a "to be continued" two-part episode, I was wondering how they would fill out the last half hour of the show when they had spent no more than seven minutes on the first seven causes. The last putative disaster was "climate change." How this would kill off man kind I couldn't imagine. Modern humans have lived through times both significantly hotter and colder than today or what is forecast for the near future. Sea levels have risen hundreds of feet since the end of the last ice-age.

Then the host, a woman sitting at a desk, pretending to be a news-anchor, switched to a clip of - you guessed it - Al Gore. The hostess asks this leading compound question:

"Is there any doubt among scientists that global warmth is occurring, that it is dangerous, and that humans are causing it?"

Gore replies:

"No. The Debate is over."

He then continues, as the hostess looks, head tilted, in mock concern, to blame "big business" for staging the "illusion of debate" in the same way that the tobacco companies hired scientists to testify before congress that nicotine is not addictive.

This entire show had been a pretext for a half-hour puff-piece infomercial for Al Gore! No historical context of climate variation was given. The relative contribution of human versus natural sources of CO2 was not mentioned. It was asserted that we must do "something." What that "something" was was not mentioned. But the certainty that man-made global warming was the most certain of these "seven ways the world would end" was echoed by all the usual hacks - Michio Kaku, a theoretical "string-theory" physicist, noted for his best-selling books, his lack of concrete accomplishments in physics, and the fact that he is not Caucasian, and Neil deGrasse Tyson, noted for getting Pluto demoted from planethood status, his grandiose self-importance, his lack of concrete accomplishments in Astronomy, and the fact that he is not Caucasian.

Yes, the world will end. If Al Gore gets his way.






Post 1

Friday, May 23 - 6:43pmSanction this postReply
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That picture makes "Big Al" look as "porky" as Rush Limbaugh did in his fattest days!



Post 2

Friday, May 23 - 7:16pmSanction this postReply
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As for the possible ends for humankind all of them are not sure-fire human destroyers. Lets take into consideration that are our ancestors in the species preceding the hominid line and those that made up the archaic humans had to suffer multiple ice ages which dried out northern Africa, and to top it off a hyper-volcano that today we call Yellowstone national park that went off 200,000 years ago. But here we are alive and well. Lets not forget that evidence in regards to our genetic heritage suggests that the lowest population humans had ever been was around 5,000 to 50,000 members. Humankind and hominids (and proto-hominids) have taken the worse the world can offer in many respects, so all the doom-saying about AIs that maybe never possible (and if they were they would be what? RATIONAL, so why would a RATIONAL creature want to destroy another RATIONAL creature without a REASON? I think people need to stop watching the popcorn flicks...), plagues that if they were nearly 100% fatal would burn themselves out (that what happens to the ebola viruses that flare up in Africa, they kill off their victims too soon for them to travel far enough to spread the virus...), and nuclear weapons are pretty much not as devestating as they want you to believe in regards to short-term explosive use of them. Even the long term exposure to radiation is not a guarantee to destroying any species, let alone humans. The more I see the History Channel and other 'educational' networks spew out crap shows and specials like this the more I have to wonder if they're just there to keep the random Joe TV-watcher scared (and not to educate said Joe TV-watcher). The real doom here is the doom of the minds that take anything such shows present as fact, especially the Global Warming bull (btw, I read that they're stating that Global Warming MILDS down Hurricanes... Wait, didn't they state after Katrina that Global Warming makes hurricanes more dangerous. I can't keep up with these idiots...).


-- Brede



Post 3

Friday, May 23 - 7:52pmSanction this postReply
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Selective Reproduction

Actually, Yellowstone Last Erupted 620kya, while the 35x100km Toba super-volcano (right) in Sumatra erupted 74kya which closely corresponds with the emergence of non-African lineages of modern humans into Eurasia. The population bottlnecj has been estimated at some 1,000 persons or as few as 30 reproducing females in the world surviving Toba.

As for AI, the threat is replicating nanobots. Intelligence is not necessary for virulence.

In any case, swine like Al Gore will kill off enough with their wishful thinking bureaucratically enforced.

And Luke, did you think I was going to select a flattering jpeg?



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Post 4

Friday, May 23 - 10:49pmSanction this postReply
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Yes, nanites could be a problem, but if you read any linked articles from the wikipedia article talking about the Grey Goo scenario then you will know that several possibilities are open to neutralize such a threat. One of them is... Rust. Yes, rust, well not really rust, but oxidization. Anything that floats around in the air is open to attack from any chemically non-neutral gases, oxygen especially (since oxidization). Nanites that are airborne are just as sensitive to such oxidization as we are, they may be able to overcome oxidization by increasing replication but the hurdle of transportation based solely on the winds to carry them will impede them greatly. Also, humans that become aware of the looming disaster of these Grey Goo nanites will be able to mobilize fast enough to use any vapor suspension system to seed the air with chemicals that can aide in oxidization, especially to accelerate it. Thus, any Grey Goo situation can be thwarted by a little bit of 'rust.' Nanites in this regard are not the true threat as people would lead you to believe as they also would be limited in replication based on what substrate that is selected. For example, the carbon in our bodies is not easily extracted as carbon (as coal) in the ground, so nanites wouldn't be prime candidates to kill off humans by molecularly tearing them apart for raw materials. I suspect that a far worse danger will come from parasites or bacteria that are engineered to attack our endocrine system as to increase hormones related to aggression or to suppress the neocortex's normal functions, or to even muck up the hypothalamus enough to make us starve ourselves to death than any nanite 'horde' could ever be. It's nice to write up possible dangers and to analyze them, but some are not as dangerous as they seem at face value until you do the logistics of each. Nanites, along with AI, is definitely at, or almost near, the bottom of the list.


-- Brede
(Edited by Bridget Armozel on 5/23, 10:50pm)




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Post 5

Sunday, June 1 - 11:30pmSanction this postReply
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This "Grey Goo" to which you refer, is this a picture of it, top right?



Post 6

Monday, June 2 - 6:34pmSanction this postReply
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Okay... sanctioned for epic humor.


-- Brede



Post 7

Tuesday, June 3 - 12:06amSanction this postReply
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That picture makes "Big Al" look as "porky" as Rush Limbaugh did in his fattest days!
He looks like a villain out of Atlas Shrugged. Michael Burns should hire him to play Wesley Mouch. I'm sure he'd take the role. It would add to his celebrity status and endear him to his friends in Hollywood.





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