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Post 0

Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 10:03pmSanction this postReply
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Better now then later, China won't give up Taiwan unless they fall or China does.



Post 1

Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 11:46pmSanction this postReply
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Jeff,

China is playing a very dangerous game. They have been ramping-up their military capability to take Taiwan. We have been ambiguous; saying neither that we would, nor that we would not, prevent the success of a taking. Our actual posture has been a presence that is capable of preventing the above. And we arm the Taiwanese. This is where my knowledge breaks down: I don’t know if the Chinese are arming faster than we are selling arms to the Taiwanese. My impression is that the Chinese are starting to outpace and that we face a decision.

My hope is for a recession/depression: I don’t think the regime will survive it. I also don’t think that an intact China is guaranteed to emerge from such. China has important economic ties to Taiwan. Those coastal regions that are so tied to Taiwan are likely to merge with it in the future.

It will be very fun to watch this play out. It could be slow-mo, or it could be to-morrow. It’s no exaggeration to say that this could be erupting sooner than most expect.

Jon




Post 2

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 7:58amSanction this postReply
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Jon Letenre wrote: We have been ambiguous; saying neither that we would, nor that we would not, prevent the success of a taking.
1.   See the article "A Retroactive Analysis of National Security Casus Belli for the Iraq War: Part 1"  on SOLO.  The US government's being ambiguous about Iraq's designs on Kuwait led to two wars.

2. Cruelty and mass murder are common in Chinese history.  They are hardly alone in that.  What about ..., well, you know the stories...  The fact is that dire predictions for Hong Kong have failed to come to pass. 

3. However much Americans "like" Taiwan as a haven of enterprise and capitalism, it is not any more of a "democracy" (so-called) than mainland China.  Taiwan is about like 1960s Brazil or Argentina or Spain: a dictatorship with a few parliamentary trappings that makes life easy for people with enough money.

4.  Ayn Rand spoke out against the "balkanization" of Earth.  Personally, I believe in many, many, many small governments as being better than fewer and larger ones.  However, Rand's points were well-made.  To an Objectivist, given some recognition of individual rights, central authority is better than no authority.  Again, I do not agree, but I do recognize Rand's argument and her reasons for it.  The point is that since Taiwan is not any kind of haven for freedom and since the Chinese central goverment seems farther removed from its bad old communist days, I fail to see the reason for alarm.




Post 3

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 8:12amSanction this postReply
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Clarence Hardy wrote: Better now then later, China won't give up Taiwan unless they fall or China does.
Better later than sooner, because, if it is true that the more looterly society cannot defeat the more freedomly, then mainland China is weaker than Taiwan -- and getting weaker all the time. 

The best thing is to let China collapse, if that is its fate. 

Providing China with a huge enemy to hate and fear is not going to bring their government down. 

Governments make all kinds of claims.  I believe that Japan and Russia are still arguing over some islands.  In a numismatic discussion group, I mentioned finding a crisp note of Hungary that celebrated King Matthias Corvinus and giving it to a friend of mine who is ethnically Slovenian since both peoples, hers and mine (distaff side) call him "our king."  Well, this guy from Romania pops up and says, How dare we call Matthias Corvinas king of either Hungary or Slovenia, when he was born in Romania!  My point is that a rational person does not argue ancient history with an irrational nationalist -- and that includes getting the United States involved in Taiwan's status as the Lost Province of China.  It may be true that neither the Portuguese nor the Japanese occupations were as bloody as Chiang Kai Shek's takeover.  How do you pick sides in a situation like that?




Post 4

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 10:10amSanction this postReply
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Hi Michael,

You wrote: “The US government's being ambiguous about Iraq's designs on Kuwait led to two wars.”

That may be a worthy point, for Iraq under Bush 41, and for China-Taiwan today. I don’t support ambiguity there. Note, however that our official diplomacy is what’s ambiguous. Our posture in the sea and arming of Taiwan are much less so.

And: “However much Americans "like" Taiwan as a haven of enterprise and capitalism, it is not any more of a "democracy" (so-called) than mainland China.”

Yes, it is. It’s much more free. And it is much more run by the consent of the governed than mainland, where there is none of such.

And: “I fail to see the reason for alarm.”

The reason for alarm is that a bon-fide dictatorship wishes and is preparing to slaughter many, many people in a brutal invasion to force itself upon a comparably free people.

Regarding Hong Kong, this spring the mainland reneged on its promises and “indefinitely” postponed elections. You are right that nothing too bad is likely to happen, but that’s mostly because they haven’t gotten their hands on Taiwan yet. Nazi Germany’s early expansions were also relatively peaceful—he was playing the world. Once the easier steps were taken care of, he went berserk. Anyway, you have more faith in the mainland rulers than I do. When a recession hits and the masses start to protest their rulers—the response will show which one of us has it right. I don’t mean to belittle such a serious matter, but it will be very fun to watch.

Jon




Post 5

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 10:14amSanction this postReply
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“The best thing is to let China collapse, if that is its fate.”

Michael, that’s exactly right. That’s why I support arming the Taiwanese to triple parity with China, so they can never think they can pull off an invasion.

In the meantime we wait for the dictators to lose control and evaporate.

Jon




Post 6

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 7:44pmSanction this postReply
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I am curious as to what principled justification exists for American military involvement in the defense of  Tawain from any Chinese takeover. The principles with which I am concerned are individual rights, and the derivative and legitimate function of government to defend and uphold the rights of its citizens against criminals--domestic or foreign.

For when government engages in military actions unrelated to the defense of its citizens, that government inevitably violates individual rights on a massive scale. (By the phrase "defense of its citizens", I mean: defense of citizens within its borders; the concept of "defense" strictly and narrowly defined; and the concept of "pre-emptive" based on hard and conclusive evidence.)

Such a government--a state, actually--violates the rights of its own citizen-subjects by taxing, regulating, and drafting them; and by making them a target for future retaliation, thereby subjecting them to higher risk of wrongful death. Such a state violates the rights of foreign individuals, most of whom committed no other crime than to suffer the misfortune of being born under a regime that comes into the gun sights of a gun-slinging, militarist state.  These people get wrongfully killed and maimed like so many lemmings, and suffer property destruction on a massive scale.

As long as I am on the subject, I am curious as to what principled justification exists for either of the Iraq invasions--by Bush I or Bush II.




Post 7

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 8:36pmSanction this postReply
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Michael,

It is untrue that Taiwan is a dictatorship. Taiwan has free elections and four years ago had their first transfer of power from the KMT to a green-conscious left of center "independence party" headed up by Chen Shui-bian. Taiwan's income tax is much lower than ours and they are relatively free from product liability and liability law in general. However, they do have draconian drug laws (drug trafficking gets the death penalty as does kidnapping). The current government has presided over a generally moribund economy and put a moritorium on nuclear power development. If you ever get the chance it is a wonderful country to visit. I especially recommend Hualien and the Taroko gorge area.

A practical reason for defending Taiwan is that 80% of the world' s computer motherboards are made there. The outside world would definitely feel it if Taiwan were invaded.

-Jim 




Post 8

Monday, January 17, 2005 - 11:00pmSanction this postReply
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Mark,

If the purpose of government is the protection of individual rights, then you have to look at the protection of individual rights both in the short term and the longer term.  In the long term, the only thing that will prevent us from aggression is the democratization of the world.  See my article World Peace.

Regardless of how the military is paid for, given the budget it has, I strongly believe we should do what is feasible to help defend other democracies against aggression.  Tyranny and aggression anywhere in the world threatens us at home to some degree, so we must fight it to some degree.  Determine the level of help that we should afford other democracies is a very difficult question that I won't attempt to answer here, but it is definitely justified.




Post 9

Tuesday, January 18, 2005 - 2:05pmSanction this postReply
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Well I built my computer and I've always gotten a Taiwanese motherboard.

Back to what I was saying earlier, I would agree with you all if I beleived China would eventually collapse, but I don't think it will. The reason the Soviet Union collapsed and not China is two-fold. The first is that China dosen't have the seperatist pressures that the SU had, they exist of course but not to that extent. The second reason is that China is allowing enough free market policies to keep it afloat but it still has a tight control over them. Businessmen in China do business at the government pleasure, not because they have a right to. Anyone steps out of line and the government is right there to take them down.

China is no more free then it was during the Cold War. Just becasue you make your dogs leash a little longer doesn't stop you from yanking back on it.

In the next few years, China will get better econonomically and I think soon after they will have economic troubles. Like other countries before them however, they WILL seek an external solution as an excuse for internal problem; i.e. they will either blame Taiwan, Japan, or the US for their problems or they will start a war in an attemp to unify they country against made up external threat. This kind of thing has happened too many times for us to ignore it. It is exactly what they did and for the same reasons in the 50's when they conqured Tibet. I believe we are going to fight China sooner ot later and at their rate of growth, I prefer sooner. I don't think it will go nuclear but it might if North Korea gets involved and this turns into a ground war or Russia gets involved and it turns into WWIII. In all probability it will be a navel and air war and only when they lose will the Chinese government be overthrown.



Post 10

Wednesday, January 19, 2005 - 9:53amSanction this postReply
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Mark: For when government engages in military actions unrelated to the defense of its citizens, that government inevitably violates individual rights on a massive scale. 

Newsflash, when a government engages in the military actions related to the defense of its citizens and maintains a military capacity required in today’s world, it inevitably violates individual rights. Now there are some people who hold that a country that cannot exist without violating rights doesn’t deserve to exist or be defended. Is that your position, Mark?




Post 11

Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 3:06amSanction this postReply
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It makes sense for the US to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack, and in general to try to balance rising Chinese power in Asia and the world. The US gains enormous benefit - as well as huge costs - from being the sole superpower. It won't give up that position easily, and nor should it.



Post 12

Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 4:22pmSanction this postReply
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I'd like to respond briefly to Jeff, Jason, and Phillip about the issue of the legitimacy of a country wielding military force in the name of "defense".

First, concerning Jeff's comment. In principle, there is no difference between the legitimate use of defensive force by a government against domestic criminals and against foreign criminals. If a suspicious looking character is walking along a street at night, peering at parked cars and darkened houses, but without committing trespass or other rights violations, the police and court system should not collar this character, throw him in prison, murder him, or those connected with him, even in the name of maintaining public order.

Even if it could be proven that so doing might establish greater public order in the long term (it can't be so proven), the state should not violate the rights of those who have not committed a crime against that state's citizen-subjects. For to do so would assault the regime of natural rights that government exists to defend (AND demolish public order in the process).

Similarly, if a suspicious foreign dictator appears to be collecting big weapons, oppressing his subjects, and even threatening or invading neighboring states, but if that dictator does not threaten or pose any realistic threat to the citizens of a particular government, then that government ought to remain neutral with respect to the suspicious dictator. Why? Because government only exists to uphold and defend the individual, natural rights of its own citizens, within its own borders. That's what they're paying it to do. If citizens of this peaceful government want to send money, or otherwise aid the beleagured subjects of the dictator, they ought to be free to do so--voluntarily.

As to the long-term prospects for "democracy", such propects have nothing to do with the prospects for individual liberty. Democracy exists for one very narrow purpose: to enable citizens to peacefully select the office holders in a government bound and narrowly restricted to defending their individual rights. Once government escapes the bounds of its own legitimacy, democracy is not a public virtue; it becomes a public vice.

To Jason: "There are some poeple who maintain that a government that can not exist without violating individual rights does not deserve to exist.  Is that your position, Mark?"
Yes it is. It was also the position of Thomas Jefferson and virtually all of the American Founders, as expressed in the first paragraph of the Declaration of Independence.  In fact, the Founding Fathers wrote voluminously about the rights of citizens to overthrow governments that violated their individual, natural rights. Why did they reach such dangerous, subversive conclusions? Because they thought that individual rights are real, and ought to be respected and defended.

It isn't true that government cannot defend it's citizens from foreign invasion without violating individual rights. The most obvious solution: refrain from invading other, non-threatening countries, thereby sparing the lives of hapless civilians, the lives of soldiers from both nations, and ending the enormous destruction of wealth on both sides. A less obvious solution: refrain from invading and bullying other states, which clearly inspires fear and hatred of Americans abroad, and makes targets of innocent Americans everywhere.

To Philip: Why is it in the interest of the citizens of the US to engage in perpetual war for "Peace", against "enemies" that do not threaten to invade the United States? Such non-defensive military adventures cost innocent people their lives, their loved one's, and cause horrendous wealth destruction, at home and abroad. What's the point? American Grandeur and Geopolitical Balance? Why is that--whatever it is--a value?

I suggest you consider the great harmony of interests that flows from the division of labor and free trade, including the power of ideas to tranform culture. We can trade with the Chinese, benefiting Americans and Chinese.




Post 13

Friday, January 21, 2005 - 3:45amSanction this postReply
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Mark, your understanding of history is lacking. There is no evidence that Jefferson would oppose taxation (a violation of rights) and allow the country to be defenseless. As President he fought an undeclared war against the jihadists at Tripoli. Later, he didn’t oppose the taxation to fight the War of 1812. By the way, were did he get the money to purchase Louisiana?

 

However, Mark, you answered my question clearly. If it comes to supporting a defense by taxes or allowing America’s existence to be destroyed by foreign tyranny you’d accept the latter. That's all I wanted to know. Thank you.




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