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Post 60

Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 5:16pmSanction this postReply
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Robert M wrote:
What do you think investing in other uses means, if not prefering putting the money elsewhere - and they ARE putting the money elsewhere[ 'buy a car, buy a house,'  etc.], 'investing' as it were!!!

Here is one dictionary definition: To commit (money or capital) in order to gain a financial return: invested their savings in stocks and bonds.

That is the sense of "invest" I used -- for monetary gain. While buying a house (for the buyer to live in) might be to some extent an investment, it is largely an expense. The other things I mentioned are expenses. Is there no such thing as an expense in your view, i.e. you stretch "investing" to include all cash outlays? When most people invest, they have an expectation that what they invest in will be worth more money in the future. This is certainly not my view when buying a car or paying living expenses. Such things are expenses, not investments.




Post 61

Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 5:58pmSanction this postReply
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Investing is not just about the money - is in expectation of a gain - but the gain may be in other than cash or its equivlant... it is you who uses it in a very narrow refined manner, and certainly not in the 'value  for value' of a trader point of view.



Post 62

Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 7:16pmSanction this postReply
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Merlin,

"Invested elsewhere" includes purchasing consumer goods. Immediately selling shares purchased via stock options is quite different from selling already owned shares.



Post 63

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 1:43amSanction this postReply
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Robert: 'What eco-freak comic book you've been reading lately?'
check the population growth rate - check the available farmable land-mass and it's use for cattle-raising or concrete pave-overs (cities, roads, etc.) - check the available drinkable water supplies and their use for industrial clean-up - check the air pollution reports and their progress in relation to the replenishing factors (forrests, seas, etc.) ... then do the maths and let me know which one runs out first at which date - and I don't much care if it's during my life-time or 'a little later' - we're overspending on a capital which we haven't even produced ourselves
I'm not saying this trend cannot be reversed or that other ressources could be found (hydroponic farming, pole-ice melting, air-filtering, etc.) - fact is though our current civilisation is doing nothing of the sort - you'll find such solutions to this problem far more often in 'eco-freak comic books' than in rational discussions of 'civilisation and humanity above all else'
PS: if you're not interested in so much calculation work look around you on a much smaller scale - how much space did you have as a child compared to now - how much untreated clean water was available - what did the air smell like ... I know this is a personal interpretation only, but it usually adds up to the bigger picture ...




Post 64

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 6:37amSanction this postReply
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Rick P,

I interpreted (in your post #49) and used "invest" (and -ed, -ment) as they are commonly used. If you want to use them to mean far more -- including buying beer, hot dogs and potato chips for a picnic -- it's okay with me. However, it would help if you would alert readers when you use any word so loosely.

You wrote:
Immediately selling shares purchased via stock options is quite different from selling already owned shares.
Of course, they are different, but both are "selling shares" as commonly understood. Also, in post #49 you did not exclude 'selling shares purchased via stock options' from 'insider selling'.




Post 65

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 6:54amSanction this postReply
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As to Martha - she was not even guilty in the end of insider trading.  However, in the wider scheme, some of the new laws making information public (ie published simultaneously on the web for all to see) are VERY GOOD.  That information used be sent to various insiders and brokers to be disseminated only to their biggest clients.  Now, anyone with the internet can get that information.



Post 66

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 12:47pmSanction this postReply
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ressources are running out fast even for basic life-support like food, water, air)
Try reading Julian L. Simon's The Ultimate Resource 2 for a counter-viewing, as well as Bjorn Lomborg's The Skeptical Enviromentalist, and Samera and Shaw's Facts Not Fear...




Post 67

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 1:06pmSanction this postReply
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before I read any or all of those books can you give me a brief outline of their views how those ressource will last?



Post 68

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 1:42pmSanction this postReply
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The first two paragraphs of the "Introduction" to Julian Simon's The Ultimate Resource 2:

"Is there a natural-resource problem now? Certainly--just as always. The problem is that natural resources are scarce, in the sense that it costs us labor and capital to get them, though we would prefer to get them for free.

"Are we now 'in crisis' and 'entering an age of scarcity'? You can see anything you like in a crystal ball. But almost without exception, the relevant data (the long-run economic trends) suggest precisely the opposite. The appropriate measures of scarcity (the costs of natural resources in human labor, and their prices relative to wages and to other goods) all suggest that natural resources have been becoming less scarce over the long run, right up to the present."



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Post 69

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 1:47pmSanction this postReply
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Vera, I found counter-evidence to either to the existence, or to the gravity/severity, of your eco-alarmist claims …

 

===============

check the population growth rate …

===============


Between 2000 and 2030, nearly 100 percent of this annual growth will occur in the less developed countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, whose population growth rates are much higher than those in more developed countries. Growth rates of 1.9 percent and higher mean that populations would double in about 36 years, if these rates continue. Demographers do not believe they will. Projections of growth rates are lower than 1.9 percent because birth rates are declining and are expected to continue to do so.

 

The more developed countries in Europe and North America, as well as Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, are growing by less than 1 percent annually. Population growth rates are negative in many European countries, including Russia (-0.6%), Estonia (-0.5%), Hungary (-0.4%), and Ukraine (-0.4%). If the growth rates in these countries continue to fall below zero, population size would slowly decline.

 

http://www.prb.org/Content/NavigationMenu/PRB/Educators/Human_Population/Population_Growth/Population_Growth.htm


 

===============

check the available farmable land-mass …

===============


Moreover, fertilizer allows us to produce more food on less farmland. This is one of the reasons why the global population could double from 1960 to 2000 and get better fed, although farmland area only increased 12 percent.


This should be compared with the quadrupling of farmland from 1700 to 1960 which of course came from the conversion of large tracts of forests and grasslands. Essentially, the extraordinary increase in fertilizer availability from 1960 onwards has made it possible to avoid a dramatic increase in human pressure on other natural habitats.

 

http://www.greenspirit.com/lomborg/

 


===============

check the available drinkable water supplies

===============

 

“while only 30 percent of the people in the developing world had access to clean drinking water in 1970, today about 80 percent have, a vast improvement.

“We don’t have a freshwater crisis, but we do have more stress on our water than we previously had. We are more people and there are more things we would like to do with our water,” Lomborg rationalizes. “We have to manage it better. About 70 per cent of our water is used by agriculture, so the problem isn’t one of declining water resources per se, but one of some areas using more than they should and others not using enough.”

 “The idea of pricing scarce resources such as water is a way to make sure that it goes to the highest value, that it’s used where it does the most good,” argues Lomborg. “If we don’t price it, people will tend to use it as a nonessential resource. The problem with pricing water is that sometimes it is not priced correctly.

For example, agriculture gets subsidies it shouldn’t get; it should have to pay the same cost as everyone else.”

http://www.corporateknights.ca/content/page.asp?name=state_of_water

 

===============

check the air pollution reports

===============

 

Many analyses show that air pollution diminishes when a society becomes rich enough to be able to afford to be concerned about the environment. For London, the city for which the best data are available, air pollution peaked around 1890 (see chart 2). Today, the air is cleaner than it has been since 1585.

 

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=718860


 

Ed

 

 






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Post 70

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 2:00pmSanction this postReply
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Vera Said

"check the population growth rate

Which has been steadily declining. 

"- check the available farmable land-mass and it's use for cattle-raising or concrete pave-overs (cities, roads, etc.)"

A criticism which employs the fallacy that crop production has reached it's limit.  I work for the Lifeboat foundation www.lifeboat.com which endeavours to build a self sustaining space station as a long term goal, as part of this we must necessarily come up with reasonable mechanisms to grow enough food in space.  Fortunately any rudimentary investigations in hydroponics reveals this to not be a major problem whatsoever.  In fact if you used a closed hydroponic facility with IR lighting and advanced day night cycles etc etc estimates suggest you could feed 1,000 people with a 10m^3 facility.  Land is indeed a fixed quantity, but human ingenuity is not.  The doomsayers and falling sky wailers keep thinking only about the problem, and not about the solution.

" - check the available drinkable water supplies and their use for industrial clean-up"

Again, there is no shortage of whatever nor ingenious mechanisms for creating clean driking water out of nearly any water source.

" - check the air pollution reports and their progress in relation to the replenishing factors (forrests, seas, etc.) ... "
I would refer you to Bjorn Lomborg's book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" (as another poster did)  I attended one of Bjorn's lectures and it was phenomenal, he is an intelligent, rational, and sincere person.  He is also a vegatarian and gay (as he said in his lecture) and as such is certainly no bastion of a right wing anti-environment conspiracy.

"then do the maths and let me know which one runs out first at which date"

We have never run out of anything, EVER!

"solutions to this problem far more often in 'eco-freak comic books' than in rational discussions of 'civilisation and humanity above all else'"
 
You are a member of civilization and humanity, what do you propose should superscede intelligent voiltional spiritual life in priority?
 
"PS: if you're not interested in so much calculation work look around you on a much smaller scale - how much space did you have as a child compared to now - how much untreated clean water was available - what did the air smell like ... I know this is a personal interpretation only, but it usually adds up to the bigger picture ..."

The air is much cleaner now in most of the industrialized world than it was in 1960, as every measuirement of air pollutants has been steadily declining.  People must be wealthy enough and live a comfortable enough life through a high enough standard of living to start concerning themselves with particulate matter emissions of diesel cars.  Many people in third world countries still cook their food by burning manure.

Michael





Post 71

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 2:42pmSanction this postReply
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Thanx everybody for the details you have dug up for me - I'll try to come up with some more numbers tomorrow - it's almost midnight here and my 'awake time' is 'running out' for today (voluntarily)
one short point in advance though: I was never arguing that human ingenuity could not come up with a solution to scarcity (see my post 63), I'm arguing that the burden will be on a few creators to find those ways and a great many second-handers to exploit them - until the next shortage
to paraphrase Atlas Shrugged: 'Tell us what to do Mr Galt'
and he didn't tell - so I'll dig up some points on my argument that conditions have indeed worsened - it irks me that your material suggests the world is better off than ever - I think I know how to counter those arguments ;-)




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Post 72

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 3:08pmSanction this postReply
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Vera, I really should warn you, I've only gotten started. Here's another ...

Global forest cover:
--------------
1950: 30.04% of global land area

1994: 30.89% of global land area

1997: 32.22% of global land area
--------------
Source:
The Skeptical Environmentalist -- by Bjorn Lomborg

Ultimate Source:
FAO Production Yearbooks


Take-away message: We are NOT losing forests ...

Ed





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Post 73

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 3:19pmSanction this postReply
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Here's some more. Current politics speaks of "energy crises." But the actual "crisis" is always only a "profit-margin" difference -- often less than 10% difference! If we were willing to spend 10% more, we could start to shift to alternative fuel at this very moment (finishing the conversion in a decade, or less). But no, we like the prices the way they are -- or at least that is a politically-expedient notion to trumpet from a politico-pulpet. Here's the facts ...

-We have more oil reserves than ever before (more years of oil reserves; even at higher annual consumption levels!)

-Oil fields are typically closed down before even half of their oil reserves are tapped (most oil stays in the ground!)

-We are better at exploiting each liter of oil (our "real need" has dropped, not increased!)

-Cars today have higher gas mileage (60% more) than did cars of 1973

-Home heating has improved by 24-43%

-Appliances (dishwasher, washing machine) have cut about 50% of their energy use

-About 40% of US energy use is wasted (we could be even more resourceful--without addition supplies)

-Almost twice the amount of wealth was produced in 1992 per energy unit, compared to 1971

-When we learn how to exploit shale oil, we will have more than 5000 years of current annual consumption (from estimated reserves)

-The energy price for nuclear power is currently estimated at 11-13 cents per kilowatt-hour

-The energy price for fossil fuels is about 6 cents per kilowatt-hour

-The energy price for wind power is about 6 cents per kilowatt-hour (more than 10 times cheaper than it was 20 years ago!)

-The energy price for solar energy is about 50 cents per kilowatt-hour

-Fast-breeder reactors produce more energy than they consume (I expect comments here!)

-Placing solar cells on 2.6% of the Sahara desert would cover the entire world's energy needs (as would about 150-200 million wind mills--placed far out to sea)

-The energy from the sun, if captured intelligently, would provide 7000 times our current energy consumption

Ed





Post 74

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 3:21pmSanction this postReply
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And then there's Denmark's success with renewable energy (e.g. windmills) ...

-In 1916, Denmark built more than 1300 new windmills

-Since 1975, the cost of making windmills has dropped by 94%, and productivity has increased by 5% per year since 1980

-Windmills that are far out to sea are 50% more effective

-A modern windmill can produce the energy used for its own production within just 3 months

Ed




Post 75

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 3:23pmSanction this postReply
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And then here's the $10,000 question ...

===================
... the economist Julian Simon in 1980 challenged the established beliefs with a bet. He offered to bet $10,000 that any given raw material - to be picked by his opponents - would have dropped in price at least one year later. The environmentalists Ehrlich, Harte, and Holdren, all of Stanford University, accepted the challenge, stating that "the lure of easy money can be irresistible." The environmentalists staked their bets on chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten, and they picked a time frame of ten years. The bet was to be determined ten years later, assessing whether the real (inflation adjusted) prices had gone up or down. In September 1990 not only had the total basket of raw materials but also each individual raw material dropped in price. Chromium had dropped 5 percent, tin a whopping 74 percent. The doomsayers had lost.

Truth is they could not have won. Ehrlich and Co. would have lost no matter whether they had staked their money on petroleum, food-stuffs, sugar, coffee, cotton, wool, minerals or phosphates. They had all become cheaper.
===================

Ed
[The Skeptical Environmentalist]




Post 76

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 3:47pmSanction this postReply
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I was never arguing that human ingenuity could not come up with a solution to scarcity (see my post 63), I'm arguing that the burden will be on a few creators to find those ways and a great many second-handers to exploit them - until the next shortage
I'm wondering if those, including everyone here, who benefited from Louis Pasteur's discoveries were "second-handers?" Or those of Edison, Carver, Curie, or Davy? 

Problem solving is only a "burden" when it's forced.




  





Post 77

Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 4:17pmSanction this postReply
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Vera,
I was never arguing that human ingenuity could not come up with a solution to scarcity (see my post 63), I'm arguing that the burden will be on a few creators to find those ways and a great many second-handers to exploit them - until the next shortage...
Just a quickie to point out that scarcity and shortage are two very different things:

Scarcity is a fact of nature while shortages are man made.



Post 78

Friday, January 27, 2006 - 9:56amSanction this postReply
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OK, OK, OK - before I get completely clobbered by data and definitions let's take it step by step:

Ed you win hands down when it comes to providing statistical data :-) as I started this discussion I'll even undertake to answer them all (let me know if I have to) - let me clarify my three arguments (supporting data on request by mail or this post will be 10 pages) - all other examples you cite go along the same line
 
population growth rate is indeed declining yet is not expected to level out until 2200 somewhere over 10 billion - to me that is still growth, meaning more people occupying space, eating food, drinking water and breathing air - of course we can 'stack' them in cities, feed them on 'junk' and let them breath 'canned air' - guess by then I won't be the only claustrophobic around any more
 
farmable land is indeed growing through extensification (making more landmass arable) and intensification (raising yield of produce) - of couse we can 'water' the Sahara, 'greenhouse' Antarctica and 'farm' the oceans - of course we can intensify crops to the minimal nutritional values for life-sustenance to increase yield - but there is a physical limit to the earth's surface and there is a limit how many carbohydrates you can pack into a mg of crops

same goes for drinkable water - we can desalinate the oceans if needed or break up the ocean's water molecules to produce air
 
air pollution you only discussed on a local/regional level - on a global level air pollution has risen in total - and that includes non-lethal air-pollution which is conveniently left out of most statistics - as for growth rate of pollution, it may be declining due to better cleaning methods but the total will still continue rising (even though at a more modest level)

not to mention that we have simply transferred a big chunk of air pollution to atomic energy which keeps our air clean, but adds radiation pollution and dumps the nuclear waste across the border

same goes for the long list of arguments in your subsequent posts - we are solving environmental problems only after they happened instead of preventing them in the first place - and most are not even solved, but moved to another area - we build higher skyscrapers and smaller apartments to contain our growing population, we extensify and intesify food production until all earth is reserved for that only purpose and the produce tastes like sth from a test-tube - we clean up the air on our front-step and let the atmosphere get polluted in the back-yard

now before you go into another rage of progress vs. environment let me state very clearly that I am NOT proposing to curtail progress to protect environment - I'm not even proposing to scare you into any 'shortage-angst' (though I would dare to ask where from you got the right to all those ressources you haven't produced yourself, if it wouldn't lead to another long discussion about property rights to earth and it's products - so better not ask) - I AM proposing though to use progress to protect environment - to do that we have to get off the 'fix-it' mentality and the 'quantity' solution and start investing in quality beforehand - most of these improvements were made after the problems started, because of shortage-angst (not scarcity - thanx to Rick for that distinction), which implied that the solution could only be more quantity (even quality of processing had as it's aim more quantity) - if we applied all that ingenuity beforehand, we could raise the quality of life, not just it's quantity (and yes - I know there are also quality improvements - again along the same line of discussion)

we reproduce masses instead of producing individuals (are we afraid that humanity will die out if we don't breed like rabbits?) - we build cities for masses instead of giving each individual more space (the masses always felt more comfortable and secure when in close proximity to each other) - we feed the masses on junk instead of producing quality food for individuals (would they even recognise quality food anymore?) - we clean up the air after it has been polluted instead of preventing its pollution in the first place ('someone will fix it later' mentality)

this also answers Teresas point: of course there were also creators benefiting from these great inventions - I'm not even arguing that there are inventions which had only (or at least mostly) positive results - but most of the inventors did not limit what their inventions were going to be used for and the consequences they had in the hands of less creative minds - so why wait until your invention becomes a burden and forces you to solve it with another invention?

so what I've been arguing against with my 'shortage-angst' (overpopulation, pollution, exploitation) is not that it cannot be solved, but that the means we use to solve it could be put to better use before the problems start - with mostly the same solutions, at roughly the same cost (and I won't provide figures to substanciate that claim - call it speculation on my side)

as for that infamous $ 10.000 question: did they specify the ressources to be included in the census or did they allow all newly discovered mines of those minerals? did they specify same use of those ressources or did they allow e.g. building cars and furniture out of plastic instead of chrome? I understand his claims and mostly agree with them - there are still many untapped ressources of the same kind (undiscovered mines) as well as better processing methods (inventions) - or simply using alternatives (plastic) to fulfill the same need - but how far will you take this argument to fulfill the greatest need at the cheapest price? to tapping the nuclear fusion in our sun (and blowing up our solar system)? mining on Mars (and creating a traffic jam in space with ore-carriers)? we'd just be perpetuating the same principle elsewhere: creating a problem out of an opportunity before we find the next fix, which again becomes a problem to be fixed

in personal terms: I don't much care if the air I'm breathing get's cleaned up within the next century if I still have to breathe polluted air until then - that the rivers are safe to drink from again within the next generation if I have to drink chlorified water until then - that the fusion reactor outside my city can be made safe within the next decade if it can blow up anytime now - that I have a junk-food diner within the next block if I can't get a decent vegan meal within 200 miles - that people are dying out within this millenia if I get more and more claustrophobic every day ... why does 'progress' always have to come at a cost to individuals - because we let society (and including government) dictate what 'progress' our ingenuity can be used for? and who is to pay the price for it? (does that answer your point Rick?)

and I hope that also finally answers Michael's question: I put the individual's quality of life (yes: mine) before the quantity required of civilisation/humanity

VSD

puh - got that off my fingers - now I better make myself 'scarce' for the weekend before the next 'abundance' comes in :-)

(Added extra line-breaks after Ricks subsequent posts)
you can't say I'm not listening to criticism - as long as I don't have to change anything - so I added a few 'nothings' :-]

(Edited by Vera S. Doerr on 1/27, 2:47pm)




Post 79

Friday, January 27, 2006 - 11:24amSanction this postReply
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Vera,

Paragraph breaks would make your loooong post more easily read.



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