| | Luke, With what research I've seen on Hodgkin's, survival odds go down with age.
Steve (and other dissenters),
Some of you guys keep harping on like the parents are killing the kid or something. First of all, we're comparing percentages of survival (not absolutes of death vs. life). You may agree that we're not comparing absolutes, but you don't sound like it when you write about it.
Second of all, we're comparing different answers to life's problems, not necessarily the existence -- or the complete lack, thereof -- of rationality. On this note, there is definite controversy over the long-term effects of being treated for Hodgkin's (see below).
************************ J Clin Oncol. 2003 Sep 15;21(18):3431-9. Long-term cause-specific mortality of patients treated for Hodgkin's disease. Aleman BM, van den Belt-Dusebout AW, Klokman WJ, Van't Veer MB, Bartelink H, van Leeuwen FE. Department of Epidemiology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, 1066 CX Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
PURPOSE: To assess long-term cause-specific mortality of young Hodgkin's disease (HD) patients.
PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 1,261 patients treated for HD before age 41 between 1965 and 1987. Follow-up was complete until October 2000. For 95% of deaths, the cause was known. Long-term cause-specific mortality was compared with general population rates to assess relative risk (RR) and absolute excess risk (AER) of death.
RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 17.8 years, 534 patients had died (55% of HD). The RR of death from all causes other than HD was 6.8 times that of the general population, and still amounted to 5.1 after more than 30 years. RRs of death resulting from solid tumors (STs) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) were increased overall (RR = 6.6 and 6.3, respectively), but especially in patients treated before age 21 (RR = 14.8 and 13.6, respectively). When these patients grew older, this elevated mortality decreased. The overall AER of death from causes other than HD increased throughout follow-up. Patients receiving salvage chemotherapy had a significantly increased RR of death from STs, compared to patients receiving initial therapy only.
CONCLUSION: The main cause of death among HD patients was lymphoma, but after 20 years, HD mortality was negligible. The RRs and AERs of death from second primary cancers (SCs) and CVDs continued to increase after 10 years. Even more than 30 years after diagnosis, HD patients experienced elevated risk of death from all causes other than HD. Increased risk of death from SCs and CVDs was found especially in patients treated before age 21, but these risks seemed to abate with age. ************************ From:: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12885835
Recap: After about 18 years, 42% of young folks conventionally-treated for Hodgkin's had died (58% were still alive). 55% of these deaths were from Hodgkin's. Either having Hodgkin's -- or conventionally-treating Hodgkins -- elevates your overall risk of death, even more than 30 years after diagnosis (i.e., even in folks who got the so-called "cure" they were looking for).
Caveat: Treatment of Hodgkin's (as well as treatment of the side-effects of treating Hodgkin's) has gotten better through time, so survival odds of 58% at 18 years is somewhat better now. Here's a study including recent treatments ...
************************ Cancer. 2009 Apr 15;115(8):1680-91. Survival after Hodgkin lymphoma: causes of death and excess mortality in patients treated in 8 consecutive trials. Favier O, Heutte N, Stamatoullas-Bastard A, Carde P, Van't Veer MB, Aleman BM, Noordijk EM, Thomas J, Fermé C, Henry-Amar M; European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Lymphoma Group and the Groupe d'Etudes des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA). Clinical Research Unit, François Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen, France.
BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to analyze cause-specific excess mortality in adult patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) with respect to treatment modality.
METHODS: The study population consisted of 4401 Belgian, Dutch, and French patients aged 15 to 69, in all stages of disease, who were treated between 1964 and 2000. Excess mortality was expressed by using a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and calculating the absolute excess risk (AER). Relative survival was calculated and analyzed using a previously described regression model.
RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 725 of 4401 patients (16.5%) had died, 51% of HL, 10% of treatment-related toxicity, 18% of second cancer, 5% of cardiovascular diseases, 2% of infections, 8% of other causes, and 6% of an unspecified cause. Overall, the SMR was 7.4 (95% confidence limits [CL], 6.9-8.0), and the AER was 182.8 (95% CL, 167.7-198.8). These indicators were 3.8 (95% CL, 3.2-4.5) and 27.9, respectively, for deaths from a second cancer and 4.0 (95% CL, 2.3-6.7) and 3.3, respectively for deaths from infection. After 15 years, the observed survival rate was 75%, and the relative survival rate was 80%. In patients with early-stage disease, the overall excess mortality was associated with age > or =40 years (P = .007), men (P < .001), unfavorable prognosis features (P < .001), and 2 treatments: combined nonstandard nonalkylating chemotherapy plus involved-field radiotherapy (P = .002) and mantle-field irradiation alone (P = .003). With follow-up censored at the first recurrence, no treatment modalities were associated with excess mortality.
CONCLUSIONS: Progressive disease remained the primary cause of death in patients with HL in the first decades after treatment. Excess mortality in patients with early-stage disease was linked significantly to treatment modalities that were associated with poor treatment failure-free survival. ************************ From: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19208428
Recap: After about 8 years, 16.5% of folks conventionally-treated for Hodgkin's had died (83.5% were still alive). 51% of these deaths were due to Hodgkin's and 10% were due to the conventional treatments for Hodgkin's! After 15 years, 75% were still alive. Overall excess mortality in these folks was associated with 2 treatments:
1) combined nonstandard nonalkylating chemotherapy plus involved field radiation 2) mantle-field irradiation alone
Caveat: First of all, I don't know what kind of treatment this kid is/was getting. Hopefully, it's not one of the above. Also, when doctors say that you are a cancer survivor or have been "cured" of cancer, they only mean so within 3-5 years after diagnosis. You could be cured and still die in the 6th year (either from your cancer coming back, or even from direct or indirect effects of your conventional treatment!).
All that some doctors care about (e.g., the ones on government payroll) is keeping you alive and cancer-free for 5 years -- because that's what goes down in the books as a "success" or "failure". Your life could be dramatically different or shortened after that, but that's not their problem. Young kids have much more than 5 years to live.
So when doctors in this Minnesota case say that the kid has survival odds of over 90% with conventional treatment, they're only looking at the first 5 years. Actual longer-term survival of this disease -- or the direct or indirect effects of treatment for this disease -- is about 75%.
Ed (Edited by Ed Thompson on 5/15, 4:28pm)
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