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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 1:19amSanction this postReply
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Tibor, you're a gem. And I'm glad you appreciate Mises' central thesis that individual needs & wants decide the fate of this world and not the planners.

"I am not sure exactly why Ehrlich’s expectations turned out to be wrong, but I would bet it had at least a little to do with how people began to change their ways thinking and acting upon learning of the dire warnings."

Well, Ehrlich was operating upon many false premises, and those not exactly uncommon to socialists. Cometh the ice age, cometh the heat wave. Cometh the death of grass and the demise of man. Cometh anything that sees man as not a viable & rational force within this world but a sad player upon the stage of folly.

Sense of life! Ehrlich had nothing to give 'cept pessimism & misanthropy.

Ross



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Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 7:12amSanction this postReply
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Perhaps I am cynical but this is what I predict:

Or not—for, sometimes, the logic of what they did in the past will simply yield consequences that they try to avoid too late in the game.

 


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Post 2

Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 8:03amSanction this postReply
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This was an interesting and important article, Tibor. As you point out, even a few of liberty's best advocates often assume they possess an unrealistic degree of prescience with regard to developing human institutions and processes, including (or perhaps especially) the marketplace.

We'd do better to acknowledge that sometimes people can manage to wring a good outcome even from a deck that is stacked against them, like the welfare state. There's still no reason to stack the deck in the first place.


Post 3

Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 2:04pmSanction this postReply
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Paul Ehrlich would win all kinds of resources bets these days. North Atlantic cod populations have crashed, petroleum supplies have started to decline, and industrialized countries like the UK face fuel rationing this winter. He just made his bets about 20-25 years too early.

Post 4

Saturday, October 29, 2005 - 6:59pmSanction this postReply
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Mark Plus:

"Paul Ehrlich would win all kinds of resources bets these days. North Atlantic cod populations have crashed, petroleum supplies have started to decline, and industrialized countries like the UK face fuel rationing this winter..."

Firstly, no supporter of the freemarket fails to recognise that a species uses up resources, humans included. The demise of cod populations is therefore perfectly reasonable & predictable. So what? Is anyone starving for lack of cod? Indeed, fish prices are high precisely because they are scarce. Less fish gets consumed. Less fishing takes place.

Oil supplies are in decline? Oh, yes the myth of "peak oil". Not that simple, I'm afraid. There's plenty of oil on this planet for many moons to come. It's just so damn cheap to pull it up out of the middle eastern deserts that we don't bother pulling it up from anywhere else at the moment. Canada & US oil shales have over one trillion barrels locked up. It just costs about 5 times as much to extract it from shale as it does from wells. But, yes, one day, the stocks of oil will become problematically low, but then the price will have become problematically high. Enter alternatives.

The stone age didn't end 'cause we ran out of stones. And you could say the same about coal. The world's lousy with coal. It just got superceded, that's all.

Re the UK having fuel rationing. Is it? Well, rationing won't solve a thing. That's a typically statist response to any shortage. Idiotic. Let the price rise and that'll damp demand. Always has, always will. You won't see any rationing in America or in my New Zealand. We're a bit saner than that, & we all buy our oil on the same global market.

No one is starving. No one is going cold for want of fuel. And the sky's not falling.

Ross

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