| | Now that there was a cease-fire earlier today, the governments of Israel and America -- so inept at fighting jihad -- both loudly proclaim that they won the war. But saying it doesn't make it so. This is just grandstanding for their constituencies. If these guys think it's a victory, they are extremely deluded. It's a cease-fire, which is nothing more than both sides agreeing to a time out.
The fact is Islamic jihadism kicked the ass of Western liberalism in Lebanon -- just as it's doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. No, this is definitely not Western liberalism. Western liberalism is the philosophy of Jefferson, Jackson, and Cleveland. Western imperialism/welfare-statism/corporate-welfare-statism is what got its butt kicked. Western liberalism has absolutely nothing to do with America's government today.
When Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000 -- after 18 years if occupation -- it said it would hold the government of Lebanon responsible for any future attacks. But it didn't. It looks like the egomania of their politicians is finally getting the best of them.
When Hezbollah raided across the border and killed 8 soldiers and took 2 more hostage, Israel said it would hold the government of Lebanon responsible. But it didn't. Some accounts indicate that this may have taken place on Lebanese soil. We'll probably never know. Both sides have tremendous credibility problems.
Israel initially accurately called this "an act of war" "by Lebanon." But it didn't attack "Lebanon," and it certainly didn't wage any kind of serious war. It almost entirely fought in the south a kind of bizarro skirmish with immense effort to avoid damaging enemy infrastructure and hurting their "innocent civilians." This irrational and foolish practice, in turn, was exactly what its enemies didn't do.
This isn't what I have heard. One of their first targets was the nation's only major airport. This effectively trapped anyone who wanted to leave, including many Americans. They also turned any allies they might have had in Lebanon into enemies.
Israel said it would destroy Hezbollah. But it didn't. The arrogance of the Bush administration has rubbed off on them. This article indicates that Bush and Cheney were involved in the planning of the attacks.
And after this victory, recruitment will be easy. So it'll only be a tiny amount of time before Hezbollah ends up with far more fighters. A lot of them may be Lebanese Christians. This is something they wouldn't have had before the recent skirmish.
Almost without a doubt, Israel will do here what it's miserably done in the past for over half a century. Israel will call upon its usual intense depravity and suicidal nature, and then trade thousands of hard-core enemies for a handful of Jews. Aggression and evil will be rewarded and emerge victorious, as they always do in self-hating Israel. Perhaps, they will get some corrupt American politicians to go after an enemy for them. They have bribing them for half a century. I'm getting the feeling, however, that most American are finally getting sick and tired of paying for it though.
I read an article that compared Israel to Serbia and the USA to Russia in 1914. I don't think George Bush wants to meet the same fate as Czar Nicholas did.
Israel hates itself anway. Just look at all the socialists they have voted into power.
Israel's enemies Syria and Iran will go unrestrained. Indeed, these participants weren't even mentioned in the cease-fire resolution. Doug Casey visited Syria back in 2005 and wrote an article about in his April 2005 issue of International Speculator:
In Syria, my impression is that most people pay lip service to Islam, much as the French do to Christianity....
While many older women wear headscarves, very few wear an abbaya. Just as many young women sport an exposed midriff....
But now anyone under the age of 40 sees it as a corrupt and counterproductive anachronism that serves mostly to ineffectively limit their supplies of hip-hop CD's, imported jeans, and Internet cafés. Half of the 18-million population is under 20, and a quarter of the working age population is unemployed. Exposed for the first time-and just in the last decade or so because of the computer, the VCR, and the satellite dish-to the salubrious influence of the West, these folks are ready for a change.
Left alone, the pathetic old Baath dinosaur would likely die of its own accord. Exactly the way the Soviet Union did, and for exactly the same reasons (this concept is explored in detail in my Reagan obituary, IS XXV No. 7, July 2004). It's not only unnecessary, but totally counterproductive to threaten places like this with military action. The place is an economic disaster area, with no meaningful exports but oil. And that's coming to an end. Production is about 525,000 bpd, domestic consumption is 275,000, leaving 250,000 bpd for export. But the fields (like most in the world today-which is another story) are in decline, and it's estimated that Syria will be a net oil importer in five years. That alone guarantees that the remainder of Syrian troops in Lebanon will be withdrawn sooner rather than later.
Unlike the Chinese Communists, the Syrian Baaths haven't truly liberalized the economy, not realizing that if people earn more they can extort more. The police state, however, has mellowed considerably since Hafez died, and the trend is likely to accelerate. At least if the U.S. keeps its hands off the place. Bush's general saber-rattling serves to do nothing but possibly unite large elements of the Syrian population around the Baath....
The young Assad appears to be surrounded, at once, by young technocrats who want to see Syria join the modern world, and a bunch of old thugs from the military and security apparatus who don't want their rice bowls broken. If the old thugs are smart, they'll take the billions they've stolen, and retire to Geneva while they still can.
My conclusion? As was the case with Iraq, the reality of Syria is vastly different from the propagandistic view disseminated by the U.S. Government. It's a small, poor, quiet, old, and passive country. Its inhabitants have been suppressed by a socialist government for the last 50 years, but that form of government is about to die, and, like a dead rat, be tossed onto the garbage heap of history....
The last 50 years will eventually be seen as an insignificant blip on the 5000 year screen of their history--exactly as the reign of the Emperor Mao is proving to have been for the Chinese. As long as somebody doesn't invade and turn the place into a second Iraq....
Opportunities? Few, and hard to take advantage of at this point. The outlook? Good. Things have improved considerably, all by themselves, in the last five years, and I expect they'll improve radically over the next five.
In the worldwide War against Jihad, the good guys lost another. One thing is certain: Israel and America will regret this day for years or decades to come. This is Israel's fight, not America's.
That being said, I really do support the right of American citizens to enlist in foreign armies. Apparently this is illegal right now. I think many Americans realize that the military should be used for self-defense, not for stirring up beehives around the world.
But I do want to encourage all those who love Israel (more than they love America, even though they live here) to put down their pom-poms and pick up a rifle and bayonet. It's a shame that America's government discourages this.
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