Chechnya and Russia have been at war for God knows how long. Recently, the war has ended and now the region is safe.
If we play the 'what if' game, and propose actions that Russia could have taken on in the conflict with Georgia. What do you think could have happened? I know that philosophically the hypothetical doesn't stand, but at the time Russian officials were thinking exactly that. In my opinion three possibilities could have occurred:
- Let Georgia go. Amount of press the conflict would receive is minimal (relatively)(Olympic games are on, US Election, and poor economic activity). Many South Ossetians die (including some holding Russian passports). Relatives of the deceased would want vengeance, take up arms, and wage a never-ending war against the Georgian government. Georgian government would label them as 'rebels' which would give them a clear conscience to kill (they are trying to undermine democracy and change borders). Rebels would eventually stop fighting once they are all dead, but new will be born who will die and give birth to more rebels. A lot of people die.
- Again, Russia does not retaliate, but protects its people. Russia holds it's positions, thereby continuing and taking part in the never-ending war. This would be something of a new Chechnya war with hundreds of Russian and Georgian soldiers dying every year. No end in sight. Many die over an indefinite period of time.
- Russia retaliates. No hypothetical here, but prove me wrong if you think any other outcome would save more lives. No other war can be spoken of while the World is watching. Yes, they argue and hate each other, but no more confrontation. Quick, and in my opinion has the least 'opportunity cost' involved.
If you think that Russia should not have retaliated, then be aware that Georgian troops had ammunition to bombard for days and weeks! If you think Russian tanks should not have crossed the South Ossetia border then consider that MANY MORE innocent civilians could have died.
Please excuse my ignorance, but I did not read all of the posts or even the article in full. I am simply not convinced from the start.
|