| | Teresa:
Re; Condoms vs 2^365
Sure. That is why I included 'reasonable failure/success' rate in my argument.
The responsible use of condoms clearly slows down the experiment, but usage of condoms is not 100.00000000%, and as well, condoms are not 100.000000000% effective in those percentage of times they are used. It is through the cracks of those even small % of failures that the tsunami of 2^365 behaviour is going to pour through with overwhelming odds.
2^365 is a ridiculously large number. It is well beyond the total number of elementary particles in the entire Universe. Long before 2^365 is realized, saturation is reached many times over in any such community engaged in 2^365 behavior.
Consider the same condom success/failure rate applied to those two hypothetical communities of behaviour over the course of a year.
one partner per night: 2^365 = 7.5 x 10^109 = 75 followed by 108 zeros... one partner per week: 2^52 = 4503 trillion opportunities = guaranteed saturation one partner per month: 2^12 = 4096 opportunities one partner per quarter: 2^4 = 16 opportunities, at some rate of success/failure ... Canadian Geese: 2^1 = 2
(2^0=1. What is that? Beats me.)
The tyranny of numbers *guarantees* overwhelming the first community with any reasonable success/failure rate applied ot the use of condoms.
The little table above objectively demonstrates the effectiveness of even moderate serial monogamy on checking the spread of disease in a population, and also demonstrates the potential impact of rampant hand shaking relationships. When you consider that 'one partner per night' is not an absolute limit of behaviour, and goes even beyond 2^365, it is not hard to understand the how and why of overhwelming populations that engage in that behaviour.
It is just a question of time and numbers. Time spent engaged in behaviour, times the risk associated with that behaviour.
Look at what is going on in colleges/universities these days. The math won't be denied. Lots of us went to college, and not only survived, but have great memories of the experience. But, this is one of the first generations to be sent off raised on the belief that sex is the new handshake. Steady diet of one nighters? Vanilla, chocolate ice cream, that's all. No subjective conseqeunces, no objective consequences. Well, there are objective consequences; the math has not been repealed by less than 100% perfect Latex.
A population dedicated/committed to 2^365 behaviour could not even achieve it over the course of an entire year, for the same reason that Amway and chainletters are a scam. All that means is, in such a population, guaranteed overlap. Not that anyone is thinking "Didn't infect you the first time? Let's try again." But, that is the factual result.
It's not like we all deliberately/consciously line up in different strata/populations of behaviour. It's more like, at some periods of our life(eg, college)we engage in one type of 2^N behaviour, and at other stages of our life, we engage in other factor of N behaviour. In theory, when we marry, N=1, 2^1=2. But, the nature of the issue is, our individual exposure rate is impacted not just by our past behaviour, but by the past behaviour of our partners. Meaning, a life spent at N=1 behaviour does not carry an weight in determining the outcome of one encounter with a member of the 2^365 population. It's one reason why 'cheating' on your mate is discouraged by your mate.
I can't prove this, but my guess is, at a given point in their lives, populations circulate in similar 'N' populations for ther sexual partners, and rarely stray too far from their current 'N' behaviour, even if unconciously. At most, at different points in our lives, we 'migrate' into a different N population. Exceptions would be married men cheating on their wives with prostitutes, aka, sad cases.
Well, whats the big deal? We have penicillin, etc., most of the time. But from time to time, the subset of our population that is blithly engaged in the 2^365 behavior is acting unwittingly as Natures mad scientist laboratory, and running the perfect random biological experiment. Occasionally, that experiment will throw up hard to detect and impossible to treat surprises, that spread before we even know exist because of the near perfect nature of 2^365 behavior as a host for such unwitting human biological experiments.
And, that is the objective cost of 2^365 behaviour.
Clearly, in the 80s, it wasn't 'homosexuality' that spread HIV/AIDS. It was non-serial monogamous relationships. It happened to land in the SF 'bathhouse' scene(ie, multiple partners per night), and from there spread rapidy and diffused to other populations, and took its toll. If it had landed in a 2^4 population, and if it had never gotten into a 2^365+ population, to this day, we might have still never heard about it. But, those populations do mix. There are not border guards checking our 'N' at the borders. Inevitably, such things make their way into 2^365 populations, and blossom. The speed with which it overwhelmed all populations was accelerated greatly by the 2^365 behavior population.
regards, Fred
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