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Post 20

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 10:41amSanction this postReply
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Eliot:

But I still don't see how "certainty" is a good term to refer something which you acknowledge as fallible and non-omniscient.

How could you possibly ever be certain about your failure to see that? For all you know--sorry, suspect-- based upon what you claim is a personal guiding principle, maybe you do see.

regards.
Fred




(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 7/06, 10:42am)


Post 21

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 10:45amSanction this postReply
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Elliot,
By irrefutable are you saying it's frozen forever and omniscient? There could never ever be progress on the topic?
In that first question, "it's" refers to a perception. In some of your other posts I've noticed you using idea or knowledge as the subject which you modified with omniscient, infallible, or frozen. I think there is a significant problem there.

An idea, or perception, or piece of knowledge is what it is at a given moment in time and it is the person, the thinker or perceiver that we can talk about as being omniscient or that they think they are omniscient. All-knowing is a trait alleged of a sentient being, not an idea. And an idea or perception can't be frozen forever of its own... it is the person who chooses, repeatedly, to freeze an idea.

Post 22

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 10:50amSanction this postReply
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Eliot:

Are you truly 'uncertain' about whether mankind should embrace 'rape' as an acceptable form of human interaction?

Ed once used the following example, of which there are many in the universe: are you truly uncertain that Canada is North of Mexico?

In what cul de sac of thought are 'certainty' about either of those statements at issue?

And much more importantly...why?

Because the only issue seems to be, they are critical counter arguments to the absolute certainty that "all rational ideas are open to reform, refinement, and error correction(or else they are omniscient and infallible." The issue seems to be , because they besmirch the absolutism of the One True Truth.

regards,
Fred








Post 23

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 10:58amSanction this postReply
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Michael, You referred to my example of child being raped:
As for rape, it is convenient to make an emotional appeal, but not helpful.
It isn't an emotional appeal, but an example that was stripped of the nuances that Elliot suggested. It would have been helpful to anyone who was open to the point I made about confusing the construction of legal descriptions with moral principles.

As to your walking the streets of Austin naked... GAAAH - I didn't need that image in my mind! As to the issue of naked in the city versus naked on ones own property, you almost explained the issue. Private property. Urban centers are not just full of people, but they are also packed with public property - the streets and sidewalks. If those were privately owned, then some would be clothing optional and others not.

Post 24

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 11:19amSanction this postReply
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Michael:

I don't begin to see the issue with walking the streets naked. In a free nation, under rules of free association, folks are free to form nudist colonies/camps, and regularly do. The issue is free vs forced association. Not everyone wants to see my sagging gray ball sack swinging in the breeze, and so as to not force association with that imagery, I am free to go commune in a nudist colony.

Nobody forces our association with clothed communities exclusively, and nobody prohibits our free association with nudist colonies, either.

At least not until we, in our increasing totalitarian insanity, put it to a national vote and implement a single 'the answer' for the entire nation, forcing association with our beliefs and prohibiting free association in what was once a nation dedicated to free association.

And when you show me instances of the state rounding up all those children in private schools and being home schooled in the double wides, and forcing them to attend public school, I'll recognize the principle of 'forced association' running loose in this free nation.

Attendence in free public schools comes with responsibilities and obligations, but is not forced by the state on any of our children; the laws don't even force education(nor can they.) (They do force our subsidy of public schooling, however.) The laws require attendence in some form of schooling, not exclusively public schooling. Folks have choices. Even folks in double wides.

There may in theory be 1% of the nation that disagrees with the concept that we all benefit from a nation of folks who at least attend school(if are not actually educated...) and yet, I doubt even the existence of that 1%. As well, the state does not compel university attendence.

And so, it is difficult to describe that policy as 'forced association' if everyone agrees with the premise that some basic level of attendence in schooling is beneficial to all of us. It is hardly contested, or controversial, or dividing the nation. It is hugely consensual; approaching 100%, not anything like 51% to 49%...

There are for sure disagreements about how to fund public education, but the two issues are not purely aligned.

regards,
Fred

Post 25

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 11:33amSanction this postReply
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Elliot,
When Peikoff talks of "certain knowledge", does he mean psychology?
I don't know - probably not.
---------
But I still don't see how "certainty" is a good term to refer something which you acknowledge as fallible and non-omniscient.
One can be certain of a particular idea, and yet still acknowledge that ideas, as a category, contains ideas that will later be proven wrong. An idea is not omniscient or non-omiscient... that is a trait that is alleged of a thinker or knower, not of that which is thought or known. Ideas, as a general category of things, includes both ideas that are wrong, and ideas that are right. Some of those that are wrong will be discovered to be wrong. But that is ideas in general and not in specific. There are people among us who are murderers - a tiny, tiny percentage - but because people are capable of murder, do we treat everyone as a murderer? Are you certain you are not a murderer? The logical error you seem to be making is two-fold - one part is to attach 'omiscient' and 'fallible' to ideas instead of two thinkers and knowers, and the second error is in taking the existence of a trait in a general class and applying it to the individual (because there are ideas that will be proven wrong, all ideas might be proven wrong, and therefore we should say that no idea should be thought of as true).
-------------------

Are you certain (psychologically) that the sun will rise tomorrow? Are you certain (psychologically) that you will live to be in your 90's? I'd guess that your levels of psychological certainty differ on those two questions. I'd ask if you can't see that that psychological certainty mirrors the degree of logical certainty that reality merits in those cases. And logical certainty implies that epistemological certainty is possible.
--------------------

I said, "From the viewpoint of psychology, we must act as if some of our ideas are not open to reform, refinement, or error correction - in the moment." You said, "I do not agree."

You start to step into the street, and hear a loud horn. Turning you see a bus heading right for you. The Popperian fellow next to you yells, "It might not really be a bus." Do you, in the moment, treat your idea of a bus, being run over, the value of life, and so forth as 'open to reform, refinement, or error correction'? Or, do you leap back on the sidewalk?

You said, we should always act as if what's true is true. Of course, but that isn't useful unless we can have some idea of what is true. Isn't that what we act on? And we need to assign some certainty to the ideas we have

Post 26

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 11:38amSanction this postReply
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Fred,

Like I said, I am non-omniscient with regard to geography, rape, and everything else. If "uncertain" is defined as "non-omniscient", then I am "uncertain". I take it you mean something else by "uncertain" -- what?


Steve,

In that first question, "it's" refers to a perception. In some of your other posts I've noticed you using idea or knowledge as the subject which you modified with omniscient, infallible, or frozen. I think there is a significant problem there.

An idea, or perception, or piece of knowledge is what it is at a given moment in time and it is the person, the thinker or perceiver that we can talk about as being omniscient or that they think they are omniscient. All-knowing is a trait alleged of a sentient being, not an idea. And an idea or perception can't be frozen forever of its own... it is the person who chooses, repeatedly, to freeze an idea.


I do this on purpose. When I say an idea is fallible or infallible, it means the idea could or could not contain an error. Omniscient is the same issue -- does the idea have knowledge of everything that could ever be relevant and cover it all (which would render error impossible), or not? And an idea can assert itself the final, frozen truth, or not.

I think we disagree about (among other things) what constitutes "one idea" -- you consider X is one idea, and ideas about how to approach X (like whether to keep it frozen or not, whether it could contain an error or not) as a second idea. I often group up everything relevant. There are not hard and fast rules for the size of "one" idea -- no well understood units -- so I use what is convenient. I could write "ideas" plural if it'd help; or "Bob's thinking on topic X"; or maybe you could read it that way. Anyway, this is a big and tangential topic. I suggest we drop it for now.

Post 27

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 12:32pmSanction this postReply
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do we treat everyone as a murderer?

I'm saying you only need knowledge that Bob isn't a murderer to treat him as a non-murderer. Why say "certainty" or "certain knowledge"? I don't see the value there.

Peikoff says all knowledge is "certain knowledge". If it's not certain, it's not knowledge.

What I hear is that "certain" refers only to things already including in "knowledge" and is redundant (and, I think, can be misleading by sounding infallibilist). So why say it?


The possibility of error applies both to all ideas generally, and also to any individual idea. If it didn't apply to every individual idea, it wouldn't apply generally either!

I'd guess that your levels of psychological certainty differ on those two questions.

My level of knowledge differs on those two questions. That's what I think is important. What's the problem with that? Why should we also or instead speak of "certainty"?

The Popperian fellow next to you yells, "It might not really be a bus." Do you, in the moment, treat your idea of a bus, being run over, the value of life, and so forth as 'open to reform, refinement, or error correction'? Or, do you leap back on the sidewalk?

He hasn't given any argument that it's not a bus. Nor has he given any argument to stay in the street (even if it's not a bus, exiting the street won't harm me). There's no problem here except that you're treating Popper as saying stuff he doesn't say.

I won't stop in the street to discuss whether it's a bus because I might die. But if he's a friend of mine, and he wants to tell me some reasons he thinks it wasn't a bus, I won't mind to start the conversation (in safety). Since his claim seems so implausible to me, I'd be interested in what he's going to say. Is he going to make some other point and I initially misunderstood him? Is he an idiot who I should stop being friends with? Has he got a new idea about busses that's more advanced than my own knowledge? Well, if he's a friend I see no reason not to give him a paragraph or so of explaining and then I can reevaluate where to go from there.

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Post 28

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 12:34pmSanction this postReply
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Eliot:

Like I said, I am non-omniscient with regard to geography, rape, and everything else. If "uncertain" is defined as "non-omniscient", then I am "uncertain"

Do you tell that to those you wish to freely associate with? As in date?

"Hi, my name is Eliot. I am uncertain about the whole 'rape' thing. Is it bad? I am uncertain. It might be good. I am much more concerned about not appearing omniscient than I am about reassuring you that I've got a firm grip on this whole 'rape' issue. I may not know everything there is to know about the act of 'rape.' For all I know, some victims secretly enjoy it, and doth protest too much, and so, my uncertainty that rape may be in fact good sometimes. Yes, Mr. MyDatesDad, I will have her back by 11:00pm, raped or not, how can any of us be certain?"

"Here, I'll drive. But I am uncertain about geography. For all I know, Canada is really South of Mexico. I may not get you to where you want to go, but rest assured, I will claim not to know where I am going the whole way, in case you were seriously worried about me claiming to be a know it all."


Certainty, in my own words: the bounds by which we assess an error in measurement or prediction or judgement.

Cannot be the same concept for binary concepts as analog concepts. With analog concepts, certainty is a bounded range. With binary concepts, certainty is a % assessment that the binary nature of our prediction/assessment is correct.

There, I've answered your question about certainty.

You've asserted that "all rational ideas are open to reform, refinement, and error correction(or else they are omniscient and infallible," which is something you take issue with, I understand).

So I will ask yet a third time: would that include the idea that all rational ideas are open to reform, refinement, and error correction, or else they are omniscient and infallible?

Do I misunderstand the meaning of the absolute words "everything else?"


Or, would clinging to that belief be an example of absolute certainty?

regards,
Fred













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Post 29

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 12:51pmSanction this postReply
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Elliot,
Ed, I said "frozen" not "frozen abstraction". Frozen means no change, no progress, ever.

You accuse me of misreading Fred, yet Fred himself has now posted saying it again. ...

... and Fred ran with it and argued with me about it, instead of saying that's not what he meant.

So I still think I got him right.

Okay, but I was giving Fred credit regarding what he meant when he said "rape" and how that is different from what you described when you said "rape." In the context, I assumed Fred was assuming that rape was forced sexual penetration. I know, I know. There are 2 ["you know what"s] in that last sentence.

:-)

Anyway, let's try an analogy:
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fred: Boiling points are higher than melting points.

Elliot: How can you say that with such unwavering arrogance? Boiling points aren't always higher than melting points!

Fred: Who in the hell are you?

Elliot: Just indulge me for a minute. I am trying to make a point.

Fred: Whatever.

Elliot: You see, the boiling point for water is 100 degrees C and the melting point is 0 degrees C, which led you to believe that boiling points are higher than melting points. But the boiling point for helium is - 269 degrees C, so it is not higher than the melting point for water! Also, the melting point of table sugar is 185 degrees C, so it is not lower than the boiling point for water! So, when I arbitrarily expand the context beyond what it is that you originally meant, then I can show how you were wrong.

Fred: Seriously?
----------------------------------------------------------------

:-)

Ed, insisting that our knowledge is not omniscient doesn't make one a skeptic. I guess denying skepticism won't convince you. What would?
To be more clear, knowledge isn't omniscient, people are. Actually, people aren't omniscient either, but if anyone or anything is to be thought of as being omniscient or even non-omniscient it is people and not places or things (like "knowledge"). You might be able to get away with saying that knowledge is a thing that might make someone omniscient, or fail to make someone omniscient -- but that's as close as you can tie omniscience to knowledge, per se (through the medium of a thinking human being).

One trouble you may have is that you purport to deny skepticism, but don't seem like you actually deny it. Instead, it seems like you water-down what knowledge means so that it fits nicely within a larger philosophy of critical rationalism, or whatever -- and therefore avoid being labeled a skeptic. On that knowledge-is-fallible-but-let's-refute-each-other view, only solipsists (folks doubting the existence of any kind of reality external to themselves) would be true skeptics.

If you hadn't watered down knowledge to mean nothing other than such dialectics-refined, expert-opinion in the first place (like Popper), then I would perhaps be convinced by your explicit denial of skepticism. Denying skepticism -- while at the same time holding out knowledge as something that is more than merely popular or even expert debate about common or even special experience -- would probably have convinced me.

Ed


Post 30

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 1:25pmSanction this postReply
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Fred: Boiling points are higher than melting points.

Elliot: How can you say that with such unwavering arrogance? Boiling points aren't always higher than melting points!

I would never say that. If you read my writing, you will find I often assert things. I would only complain if he said that "boiling points are higher than melting points -- and don't even try to reply, it's case closed, the end, nothing you could say could make any difference to me" or something like that.


Like I've said, ideas are capable of containing error. That is an attribute of ideas. People are also capable of making errors, which is an attribute of people. We can talk of both. Fallible and non-omniscient both refer to the possibility of error, that is what they are about. I don't really care to debate terminology and don't have much more to say about this specific point.

Post 31

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 2:26pmSanction this postReply
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Eliot:

Like I've said, ideas are capable of containing error. That is an attribute of ideas.

All ideas? That absolute 'all' is exactly the point...

Then, (#4), would that include the idea "all rational ideas are open to reform, refinement, and error correction(or else they are omniscient and infallible,"

...or is that an example of an idea that we can be absolutely certain of?

Uh oh. Slippery slope coming.

And another favorite: "ideas are capable of containing error. That is an attribute of ideas."

Please tell me you are not certain of that, because after all, you are not omniscient.

Or, more to the point, there are in fact some ideas that we can be absolutely certain of. Such as, the hardly earth shattering observation that 'ideas are capable of containing error.'

Because if we were uncertain of that, we would be admitting that we entertained, as a possibility, the idea that ideas are incapable of containing error, for fear of being omniscient on the concept of the fallibility of our , er, ideas.


Which begs the question; where else does the absolute truth of this assertion fall apart?

regards,
Fred








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Post 32

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 2:51pmSanction this postReply
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Elliot,
Like I've said, ideas are capable of containing error. That is an attribute of ideas."
Actually, that is a bit ambiguous. Any given idea will or won't contain an error. The issues are how do form ideas to reduce the chance of error? How do we measure an idea to determine the degree of certainty to accord it?

Shouldn't we have a degree of certainty that says, "This is my estimate of the mileage this idea will give me." Then we note what reality does to that estimate. Is it rewarded? Or, punished? This becomes part of structure of knowledge we are building.

Why should we spend as much time looking for errors in ideas with a high certainty factor (assuming no one is in our face with some solid evidence that our certainty in that idea is unwarranted) when there are still important ideas that we are very uncertain about? I'm talking about polishing the already shiny ideas, while ignoring a sea of near ignorance.

Post 33

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 5:26pmSanction this postReply
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Elliot,
The Popperian view is that rationality is not about support. It is achieved by a different method. Rational ideas are ideas which are open to criticism. If there's no way to improve an idea, it's stuck, it's bad, it's irrational. If it's open to improvement via criticism – if it's open to reform, refinement, error correction – then it is rational.

Whether ideas are open to error correction does not depend on how much support they have. That is not the issue.

Okay, Popperianism (critical rationalism) is not about the verification of things -- things supported positively by foundations of evidence and logic. On this view, we can only know if an idea is rational by whether it is open to criticism. But keep in mind that it is not usually ideas that are open to criticism, but people who hold ideas -- so there is one extra level. It'll boil down to ideas that may lead some people to remain open to criticism vs. ideas that may lead some people to the kind of conclusive justification that shuts down all further debate.

Am I getting this?

But that just leaves 2 broad categories -- good ideas that are good because they aren't final, and bad ideas that are bad because they are final -- without leaving us any way to determine rankings, evaluations, or comparisons between 2 ideas of the same group/category.

Supporting ideas is meant to sort out good ideas from bad ideas. The ones with more support are good. This method does not work. One unsolved problem with it is to define exactly when, why and how much any given idea supports any other ideas. A second problem is whether a less supported idea could be the best one. If it can, what does it really matter that it's less supported?

However, a different method of sorting out good ideas does work: criticism.
But with lots of work we can define exactly when, why and how much any given idea supports any other ideas. It just takes a little noncontradictory integration (sometimes sprinkled with a modicum of blood, sweat, and tears), that's all. I wasn't an Objectivist back when Objectivism was "trendy", "fashionable" and "hip" (i.e., in the 1960s), but I heard about coffee-table Objectivist activities which included a game. The game involved people pulling subjects out of a hat. Not live subjects, just pieces of paper each with a certain noun, verb, phrase, or proposition written on them. The idea was to tie the 2 subjects together, utilizing noncontradictory integration.


A particularly-challenging example was when I read about someone pulling out (of the hat) 2 slips of paper which had these ideas written on them:

1) Concepts as mathematical.
2) Private roadways as moral.

Holy hell! I'm pretty sure that I couldn't link those 2 things on the spur of the moment! I might be wrong about the specifics, but I'm pretty sure it involved private roads and something very basic. I think it was Peikoff writing/reminiscing about the past, but I'm not sure which book it's in.

If anyone can track this down, please help.

:-)

Also, if a less supported idea is discovered to be the best one, then doesn't that mean that it will become the most supported? Doesn't "best" in theory mean "works best in practice"? A theory-practice dichotomy is something else Objectivists reject.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 7/06, 5:31pm)


Post 34

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 9:55pmSanction this postReply
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Steve,

Why should we spend as much time looking for errors in ideas with a high certainty factor


Don't. You don't have to spend your time looking for errors everywhere. You shouldn't. You have to be selective and look where you think is promising.

You should be open to rexamining an area where you didn't expect an error if some reason comes up to do so. For example, your respected friend tells you you're wrong and wants to tell you new ideas about it. Or you're working on something else but there is a problem, something is going wrong, and you try to trace the source of the problem, and it's hard to find, and the area you were confident about ends up being one of the candidate places the error might be.

I think perhaps we can agree about this.


Taking up another issue, I do not agree with degrees of certainty. I categorize ideas in two ways. Either they are refuted or non-refuted. Refuted means we have a criticism of it, we see something wrong with it. Non-refuted means we don't.

If you see a problem with an idea, I do not acknowledge that is a matter of degree. Either you can answer the criticism (so there's no problem anymore) or you can't. If you do not see any problem, I again do not acknowledge that is a matter of degree. If you can't find any problems, then accept it as knowledge, act on it, go ahead, don't only 80% accept it.

(For this to work requires understanding a variety of complications. Epistemology in full isn't this simple.)

Post 35

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 10:06pmSanction this postReply
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Ed,

Okay, Popperianism (critical rationalism) is not about the verification of things -- things supported positively by foundations of evidence and logic. On this view, we can only know if an idea is rational by whether it is open to criticism.


Yes but keep in mind, in my terminology, "rational" and "true" (or even "good") are different. It's possible to think rationally but have a bad or false idea (e.g. you might get unlucky, or have a bad context to work from).

Open to criticism is important but does not mean true. It means if it's not true, we have a chance to find out. So errors don't get entrenched or frozen permanently. Making errors permanent is what I consider irrational. (Even if you don't know there's any error in an idea, if you treat it in such a way that if it has an error, that error will never be corrected, then that's irrational.)

without leaving us any way to determine rankings, evaluations, or comparisons between 2 ideas of the same group/category.


As I just posted in reply to Steve, I recommend ranking by whether there is or isn't an outstanding criticism of an idea. And no other way. I think all the other ways are mistakes. (I am here concerned with epistemological rankings. Other types of rankings can be fine. For example, if you rank feeding ideas by which one will make your cows the fattest, that is useful and there's no problem.)

This only provides 2 ranks. How do you act? Get exactly one relevant idea to have the good rank (non-refuted). There are methods for doing this. (A big topic we can go into if we get enough understanding about the other issues.)

But with lots of work we can define exactly when, why and how much any given idea supports any other ideas.


I don't think it's possible to do it and have your answer be any good. (You can do it if you're willing to have a bad answer. E.g. you could assign support points to each letter of the alphabet, and add up the letters in the words of each idea.)

Whether it's possible or not, I don't think anyone has done it. Or come at all close. I have some reasons I think it's impossible but they are tangential, complicated, and perhaps unnecessary to go into.

I think that amount of support really means amount of authority, and is an irrational evasion of the real issues (decisive critical arguments about the content of the ideas).

Post 36

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 11:28pmSanction this postReply
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Elliot,
As I just posted in reply to Steve, I recommend ranking by whether there is or isn't an outstanding criticism of an idea. And no other way.
Okay, but that's social metaphysics -- where you go along to get along, and things are accepted on the basis of a Gallup poll of outstanding criticisms. And if you pardon the bromide, no true Objectivist accepts social metaphysics as a foundation for how or when to accept or reject ideas.

But with lots of work we can define exactly when, why and how much any given idea supports any other ideas.
I don't think it's possible to do it and have your answer be any good. ...

Whether it's possible or not, I don't think anyone has done it. Or come at all close.
Okay, but you are saying that no one has validated foundationalism (the resting of knowledge on basics; and the noncontradictory integration of advanced knowledge with basic knowledge). Yet I can think of several cases where it looks like someone was able to do it, Rand's nonfiction works standing out in this regard. Here are a couple of good quotes on the subject:
All learning involves a process of automatizing, i.e., of first acquiring knowledge by fully conscious, focused attention and observation, then of establishing mental connections which make that knowledge automatic (instantly available as a context), thus freeing man’s mind to pursue further, more complex knowledge.
This quote shows that you have to use foundationalism/integration in order to become smart (in order to free your mind up enough so that you can use it to become smart).

A mind’s cognitive development involves a continual process of automatization. For example, you cannot perceive a table as an infant perceives it—as a mysterious object with four legs. You perceive it as a table, i.e., a man-made piece of furniture, serving a certain purpose belonging to a human habitation, etc.; you cannot separate these attributes from your sight of the table, you experience it as a single, indivisible percept—yet all you see is a four-legged object; the rest is an automatized integration of a vast amount of conceptual knowledge which, at one time, you had to learn bit by bit. The same is true of everything you perceive or experience; as an adult, you cannot perceive or experience in a vacuum, you do it in a certain automatized context—and the efficiency of your mental operations depends on the kind of context your subconscious has automatized.
This quote shows that thinking efficiency is related to the automatization, or the "frozenness", of some knowledge.

The status of automatized knowledge in his mind is experienced by man as if it had the direct, effortless, self-evident quality (and certainty) of perceptual awareness. But it is conceptual knowledge—and its validity depends on the precision of his concepts, which require as strict a precision of meaning (i.e., as strict a knowledge of what specific referents they subsume) as the definitions of mathematical terms. (It is obvious what disasters will follow if one automatizes errors, contradictions and undefined approximations.)
This quote warns that even though you have to work with some frozen, automatized knowledge (that is, if you want to be smart as a human being) -- you will also have to be careful that you did not accidentally incorporate an error into your thinking along the way: because it could become a frozen error.

Source:
http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/automatization.html

Ed


Post 37

Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 11:38pmSanction this postReply
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Criticism is not social. You always have to act on the ideas in your own mind. If you don't understand something, either learn more about it or don't use it for now. If you learn an idea from someone (critical or otherwise), now you know it yourself. Make your own judgments with your own mind.

I've read Rand's nonfiction. Could you say specifically how your quotes contradict me?

Post 38

Sunday, July 7, 2013 - 8:20amSanction this postReply
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Eliot:

I do not agree with degrees of certainty. I categorize ideas in two ways. Either they are refuted or non-refuted. Refuted means we have a criticism of it, we see something wrong with it. Non-refuted means we don't.

Then, I am certain that you are referring to a subset of all ideas, and not ideas in total.

There is an entire field of study called 'uncertainty analysis.' It not only is focused on categorizing 'degrees of uncertainty,' but as important, the science of propagating degrees of uncertainty, when an idea is dependent upon other ideas. This analysis of propagation of uncertainty is crucial in choosing some composite ideas over others; it is possible to rule out some composite ideas because they amplify component uncertainties, and choose instead competing composite ideas because they supress component uncertainties.

This is exactly why, for example, there are 12 sets of footprints on the Moon, in spite of mankind's uncertainty about its ideas.

Folks had an idea once; mankind walking on the Moon. That idea was a composite of ... millions of ideas, each one with a range of uncertainties. Example: a designer had an idea that a bolt should have a diameter slightly smaller than a through hole, but not so small that it failed to secure the part it was securing within an uncertain range. The nominal value was 'X' but the achievable, uncertain value was really 'X +/- tolerence to uncertainty.' A range of uncertainty. We dont regard the resulting idea as a failure because we did not achieve 'X +/- 0.00000000...' In fact, we assess the idea on the basis, "Is this required range/degree of uncertainty achievable?"

And, so on, with a million examples of uncertainty until the binary outcome -- mankind walking on the Moon -- was achieved in spite of millions of 'failures' to achieve a binary view of 'certainty.'

So in some important manner, the above definition of certainty/uncertainty with its degrees of uncertainty do not apply to the subject you are describing, but apply to some area of human activity other than mankind acting in the universe in spite of the above definition of uncertainty.

What domain is that, that has binary only certainty?

regards
Fred



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Sunday, July 7, 2013 - 8:34amSanction this postReply
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What domain is that, that has binary only certainty?

Epistemology. I meant to be commenting on epistemology.

Yeah there is a lot of legitimate knowledge about stuff like error ranges in other fields.

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