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Monday, March 31 - 7:08amSanction this postReply
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http://video.foxnews.com/v/3410733968001/obamacares-future-impact-on-the-economy/?intcmp=obnetwork#sp=show-clips

 

 

 

Economies driven to their knees...which is keeping health care costs 'down'...and he wants to take credit for the result.

 

Observes that, maybe real soon/any day now, we will see some relief in endemic unemployment, but also admits that today, we are nowhere near where we should be this many -years- past the crisis of 2008.

 

We need to get to 'some kind of clarity' ... on all that cash currently outside the grab of the sucking void in DC.

 

He's hopeful that after 'getting through the midterm elections' people will 'come together' to go after the 'low hanging fruit' of those corporate revenues.

 

"Secular stagnation' the new story of the modern world.

 

We shouldn't lower business tax burden in US because business taxes are 'too low' ... and then, three breaths later, complains that Japan transitioned from staggering near recovery to full blown recession by implementing higher VAT...worried because they are going to do it again, and kill whatever glimpses of 'maybe soon' are on the horizon.   Worried about Japan's debt burden.

 

We are probably growing at rate sufficient to bring down unempllyment a bit ...er.... this year.

 

And of course, his solution is loosening finance for housing, to 'increase demand', coupled with more government 'investments' in infrastructure and 'jobs.' Because we all truly are Mr. Amazing No Short Term Memory Men and Women.

 

It's not 'six years' of this, it is decades of this, by both parties. We there yet?



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Monday, March 31 - 10:19amSanction this postReply
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I find very little I like about Mr. Summers. (But there is one thing... he lost his job as President of Harvard because he disagreed too vehemently with Cornel West, the Princeton and Harvard, Christian, socialist darling. Not over politics, though. Over getting West to actually do some teaching as opposed to working on lucrative outside activities.  And he felt that West was embarrasing Harvard by making a Hip Hop album.  Summers must not understand that a black socialist elite would have to go much further than that to be an embarrassment from the perspective of the far left.)

 

Summers is part of the holy trinity: Ivy League Academia, Wall Street's Politically Connected Financial Institutions, and Washington's High Level Appointed Elites. Actually, he has gone even further, for a period of time he was part of the holiest of the holys: Global Governance and International Finance.

 

He was on the short list to replace Bernake, but Obama's far-left base didn't see him as far enough to the left (and he wasn't a woman).

 

I thought that his reference to "secular stagnation" was interesting. It is like he has in his head this dichotomy between government plus quasi-government plus cronys on one side, and the truly private actors on the other side (this would be those who don't get their money from subsidies, taxes, government borrowing or fiat money). And in his mind those in the secular side haven't been pulling their weight, doing their duty, and it is their fault that the things are bad. But, being a generous neo-Keynesian he understands that they need to have demand stimulated while being more fully regulated.

 

On the video - the first half anyway - he was really just a Progressive true-believer doing his duty in pimping for ObamaCare. If he believed any of what he was saying, he is proof that you can rise to great heights by parroting nonsense and being stupid enough to believe it. If he didn't believe it, then he is showing the true colors of the Progressive: Find a good set of lies to defend the end goal of gaining control of whatever segment of the economies are in question.

 

Fred has written again and again on the undue influence of the Ivy League schools. And this video is another bit of evidence of just how true that is. His career has been to doggedly follow whatever paths lead to becoming a successful elite.



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Monday, March 31 - 12:01pmSanction this postReply
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That phrase "secular stagnation" is still bothering me.  

 

To the progressives, "secular" is a good word.  It is the opposite of 'religious'  in a Christian sense.   But Summers seems to be using it to mean "outside of government."  Isn't that a bit weird?  

 

Maybe this is the outing of the dichotomy between the private sectors that Progressives see as having no spiritual value but only exist as the source of materials to be redistributed - milk cows.  And the government and international agencies and elites in the media, the government, and all the cronys, and the 'needy'... they are of spiritual value as those who properly worship at the new religious alter of Progressivism.  So Summers doesn't want the secular (milk cows) to stagnate, he wants more milk to magically appear to feed those who are marching in that holy army towards the far left goals (marching makes them holy which excuses them of the duty to produce any milk - just consume and march).

 

Still weird.

 

This can be seen as making the old meanings of "religion" go away ("There are no droids here")... and marking any old religious connotations as taboo.  That leaves the emotional connotations of "religious passion" and "religious conviction" and "religious duty" and "religious infallablity" available for use by progressive witch doctors. "Look!  It's Progressivism - the new religion.  Let's all march!"

 

The workings of group-think are indeed strange.  That Borg-like connection can't be grasped directly.  If you get connected, it has to be in exchange for the exercise of much of your critical thinking and logic.  (The Ivys have shown a high success rate in this particular kind of intellectual transplant, althougth some transplant work is being done at most universities.)  

 

So, we, on the outside are left to form hypotheses as we observe commonalities in progressive behaviors and then wait to see if they are validated with the passing of time.  It is so bizarre that they come from "higher education" to explain the "scientific" reasons why their contradictory, non-rational, destructive principles are not just correct, but moral.



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Monday, March 31 - 1:19pmSanction this postReply
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Steve:

 

Check this wiki article:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation

 

It is safe to say that Summers and Krugman and the Keynsians, etc., blame constrained government spending(where? when?)'austerity' for not combatting secular stagnation 'enough.'

 

As has been discussed on these pages many time, some think they are totally wrong about cause and effect.    It is, IMO, the endemic reliance on shed risk models of 'the economy' running that are killing the engines that drive prosperity.   If not killing them, then so effectively crippling them that what results is a kind of abomination.   It would be less cruel to totally kill them, then to see the last remaining struggling efforts of young people striving to prevail, be ridden by parasitic vermin, sucking the very life out of every new generation.  They've been fleeced before they were born by a cancer that has found a way to tax the unborn.     A kind of homeo-stasis -- dynamic death -- a balance between the maximum amount of shed risk parasitism being supported by the minimum amount of yet striving human effort to compete and prevail.

 

A sick thing to watch struggle.  A nation on its knees, still striving to carry nothing but an ever increasing load of public defined benefit pension freeloaders and shed-risk crony capitalists.   Monopolists with guns making damn sure only that the gig stays fully funded uber alles, complaining all the while, "more....more....more....", whatever it takes.

 

Rats on a sinking ship, doing what rats on a sinking ship do.    Economic end game.

 

That is secular stagnation...managed by spend side only Keynsians.

 

The movie 'Human Centipede' was less deliberately horrible, as a spectacle of humans directing deliberate misery at others. 

 

There is a fix.   The fix is to realize the global problem.   The global problem is the end of surface development gradient.    The fix is to restore gradient.    The old expression was sink or swim.   The new expression is stagnate or fly.   Grow.   Up.   Out.    We have totally wasted the last 50 years of national wealth, energy, and vitality, and the result is Detroit.

 

The 18th century German philosophers have led mankind into a homeo-stasis cul de sac.  An end game,   Death of a species.    We don't do stasis.   Stasis is death.   The theories based on deliberately targeting stasis are exacly like theories that deliberately target death.

 

Fail.

 

I had a horrible experience this past week.   I was doing some research into newspaper articles from 35 years ago in a local library microfilm room.   I was able to directly compare the effort and content that went into newspapers 35 years ago, and compare them with these things barely published today.    It was like travelling to a different civilization/species.    It is almost more informative reading 35 year old news stories than it is reading the autogenerated crap/wallpaper that is feverishly being spewed today, trying to fill the over provided and under-subscribed wallspace with meanigful content.

 

We've run downhill to convenience, like me posting links to that wiki article.   We've left something behind: the effort to run uphill.   This nation used to be alive.

 

The horrible experience was coming back to the present reality.

 

regards,

Fred



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Monday, March 31 - 3:11pmSanction this postReply
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My apologies to everyone. I looked at the link Fred supplied and I see that "secular stagnation" is a term that has been around for a long time. What I wrote about the weird epistemology of this is still valid, but I was thinking that it was a new term. Nope. It goes back to the Great Depression (and Progressive Economics).

 

With most of what I read at that Wiki article, it appears that "secular stagnation" is being used by Keynesians as made-up explanations of economic negatives that justify government intervention.  For example, if they believe not enough private money is being invested in the private sectors, they call that a kind of "secular stagnation" and say that there should be government stimulation. (When that fails, they say it wasn't enough stimulation.)  Instead they should be looking at why the private sectors are holding tight to their money.  A high demand for money (holding money tight) can come from a number of specific views held by those who are choosing not to invest. And a government that barges around increasing debt, changing the laws, printing fiat money, and/or taxing higher isn't likely to increase investment confidence in the future.
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Journalism having run downhill over the span of several generations (all the while changing the rules of jounalistic virtues to suit progressive ends), is yet another thing we can thank the Ivys and other universities for. It occurs to me that the Internet is the one possible means by which the market could do an end run around the journalists in their failure to find and make public the truth.

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We've run downhill to convenience... We've left something behind: the effort to run uphill. This nation used to be alive.

One of the really large tipping points in the decline of a nation is the decrease of emotional energy and the loss of motivation to go after values that require risk.

 

This happens not just because of specific regulations or the specific level of taxation.  It will happen in direct relation to the portion of a nation's life and resources that are directed by government. This becomes an omnipresent background sense that "You didn't build it (government did)" and that it isn't important unless it comes from government, and that if it hasn't been okayed by government it shouldn't be done. And there's more. There is a 'master meme' is floating about. It is that for all things, in all areas, there is right way to do it, a right way to view it, a right way to believe. And what is proper for humans is that we come to some kind of consensus, or adopt what the experts or the elites proclaim as "the right way" and then enforce a "comprehensive" practice that must be adopted. No toleration for people to do it their way.  No concept that we don't have to all do everything the same way.  

 

When nearly everything we see on the nightly news, and on the front pages of the newpaper is about government, it isn't surprising that the first thing anyone things about when considering a business move is "would it be legal to..." and when such a large portion of a return will go to taxes and the cost of regulation compliance, the second thought is, "...too much risk."

 

Massive government eats the resources and squashes individual efforts - the result?  Stasis.  "This nation used to be alive."



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Monday, March 31 - 5:10pmSanction this postReply
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Steve:

 

With most of what I read at that Wiki article, it appears that "secular stagnation" is being used by Keynesians as made-up explanations of economic negatives that justify government intervention.

 

Exactly.   And their only response when that intervention doesn't work is to 'double down.'

 

regards,

Fred



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Tuesday, April 1 - 6:49amSanction this postReply
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Secular stagnation is a condition of negligible or no economic growth in a market-based economy. When per capita income stays at relatively high levels,  the percentage of savings is likely to start exceeding the percentage of longer-term investments in, for example, infrastructure and education, that are necessary to sustain future economic growth. The absence of such investments (and consequently of the economic growth) leads to declining levels of per capita income (and consequently of per capita savings). With the reduced percentage savings rate converging with the reduced investment rate, economic growth comes to a standstill – ie, it stagnates. In a free economy, consumers anticipating secular stagnation, might transfer their savings to more attractive-looking foreign countries. This would lead to a devaluation of their domestic currency, which would potentially boost their exports, assuming that the country did have goods or services that could be exported.

 

Persistent low growth, especially in Europe, has been attributed by some to secular stagnation initiated by stronger European economies, such as Germany, in the past few years

 

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=secular-stagnation

 

Any questions?    Europe's problems arent due the Greeces; why no, the problem is Germany.    Germany's Agenda 2010 backed off the social welfare train, Germany's economy rebounded, Germany double downed on the same policies, and -that- is what caused all those other nations to have to slow down their massive sucking at the state run economy welfare straw.    

 

This is the self-serving explanation 'attributed by some' who spray paint this loutish graffiti and scurry away as an explanation of the lexicon.   Because the last thing in the world our own parasitic elites want this nation to realize is that it is Germany who has the 'stronger European economy.'

 

Greece: The country's economy was devastated by the Second World War, and the high levels of economic growth that followed throughout the 1950s to 1970s are dubbed the Greek economic miracle. Since the turn of the millennium, Greece saw high levels of GDP growth above the Eurozone average, peaking at 5.9% in 2003 and 5.5% in 2006.[42] The subsequent Great Recession and Greek government-debt crisis, a central focus of the wider Eurozone crisis, plunged the economy into a sharp downturn, with real GDP growth rates of −0.2% in 2008, −3.1% in 2009, −4.9% in 2010, −7.1% in 2011, −7.0% in 2012 and −3.9% in 2013.[43][44][45] In 2011, the country's public debt reached €355.141 billion (170.3% of nominal GDP).[24][25] After negotiating the biggest debt restructuring in history with the private sector, Greece reduced its sovereign debt burden to €280.4 billion (136.5% of GDP) in the first quarter of 2012.[46]

 

Germany:

 

What Wiki claims CIA Factbook says about German Economy: (54 is a cite to the CIA World Factbook)

 

The German economy practically stagnated in the beginning of the 2000s. The worst growth figures were achieved in 2002 (+1.4%), in 2003 (+1.0%) and in 2005 (+1.4%).[53] Unemployment was also chronically high.[54] Due to these problems, together with Germany's aging population, the welfare system came under considerable strain. This led the government to push through a wide-ranging programme of belt-tightening reforms, Agenda 2010, including the labour market reforms known as Hartz I - IV.[54]

In the later part of the first decade of 2000 the world economy experienced high growth, from which Germany as a leading exporter also profited. Some credit the Hartz reforms with achieving high growth and declining unemployment but others contend that they resulted in a massive decrease in standards of living, and that its effects are limited and temporary.[54]

The nominal GDP of Germany contracted in the second and third quarters of 2008, putting the country in a technical recession following a global and European recession cycle.[55] German industrial output dropped to 3.6% in September vis-a-vis August.[56][57] In January 2009 the German government under Angela Merkel approved a €50 billion ($70 billion) economic stimulus plan to protect several sectors from a downturn and a subsequent rise in unemployment rates.[58] Germany exited the recession in the second and third quarters of 2009, mostly due to rebounding manufacturing orders and exports - primarily from outside the Euro Zone - and relatively steady consumer demand.[54]

Germany is a founding member of the EU, the G8 and the G20, and was the world's largest exporter from 2003 to 2008. In 2011 it remained the third largest exporter[17] and third largest importer.[30] Most of the country's exports are in engineering, especially machinery, automobiles, chemical goods and metals.[22] Germany is a leading producer of wind turbines and solar-power technology.[59] Annual trade fairs and congresses are held in cities throughout Germany.[60] 2011 was a record-breaking year for the German economy. German companies exported goods worth over €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion), the highest figure in history. The number of people in work has risen to 41.6 million, the highest recorded figure.[61]

Through 2012, Germany's economy continued to be stronger relative to local neighboring nations.[62]

 

What CIA Factbook actually says about German Economy:

 

The German economy - the fifth largest economy in the world in PPP terms and Europe's largest - is a leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and household equipment and benefits from a highly skilled labor force. Like its Western European neighbors, Germany faces significant demographic challenges to sustained long-term growth. Low fertility rates and declining net immigration are increasing pressure on the country's social welfare system and necessitate structural reforms. Reforms launched by the government of Chancellor Gerhard SCHROEDER (1998-2005), deemed necessary to address chronically high unemployment and low average growth, has contributed to strong growth and falling unemployment. These advances, as well as a government subsidized, reduced working hour scheme, help explain the relatively modest increase in unemployment during the 2008-09 recession - the deepest since World War II - and its decrease to 5.3% in 2013. The new German government introduced a minimum wage of $11 per hour to take effect in 2015. Stimulus and stabilization efforts initiated in 2008 and 2009 and tax cuts introduced in Chancellor Angela MERKEL's second term increased Germany's total budget deficit - including federal, state, and municipal - to 4.1% in 2010, but slower spending and higher tax revenues reduced the deficit to 0.8% in 2011 and in 2012 Germany reached a budget surplus of 0.1%. A constitutional amendment approved in 2009 limits the federal government to structural deficits of no more than 0.35% of GDP per annum as of 2016 though the target was already reached in 2012. Following the March 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Chancellor Angela MERKEL announced in May 2011 that eight of the country's 17 nuclear reactors would be shut down immediately and the remaining plants would close by 2022. Germany hopes to replace nuclear power with renewable energy. Before the shutdown of the eight reactors, Germany relied on nuclear power for 23% of its electricity generating capacity and 46% of its base-load electricity production.

 

 

 

There is a political battle being waged to make damn sure that Agenda 2010 ("Austerity") and Merkel's doubleing down on THAT are never understood in America to be contributor to Germany's economic strength:  our elites are urging us toward the 'secular stagnation' abyss not away from it.

 

 

Ultimately why?   Because The Malthusians and their intellectual spawn are existentially terrified children, convinced since the 1800s that mankind's only hope is to newly target stasis in this Universe.     As if.   In this Universe?   Stasis is death.    Especially for economies.    They have a theory based ultimately on mankind as bees and elites as beekeepers.   And largely can't balance their own checkbooks, but are going to run soemthing called 'the economy.'

 

These Emperors, this time, are all about the Common Good, so sit back and relax, you will like it.

 

.

Our species surface growth paradigm -- surface gradient -- is all but consumed, and the more our technology advances, the faster the rate of consumption of gradient, the more highly concentrated the remaining pockets of opportunity become.   

 

There -is- an alternative to endemic, chronic 'no growth', and JFK pointed at it. It is endemic infinite growth.   Transition from surface based deveolopment wave to volume based development wave.    It was not technological reasons that made us pause for now 50 years.   It was Nixon's petty jealousy of JFK, period, and other equally short sighted reasons as well.    We've not only wasted the last 50 years of national health and vitality and vigor, we've all but killed it.   There is no technological reason why tonite, we are not able to take our children outside, point at the lights of the new cities on the Moon, and watch our children look up.     Mankind's natural desire to do exactly that is proceeding, not because of whatever this sick federal government concer is, but in spite of it.  NASA these days is being politically abused to put out the kind of tripe seen here, reported by Ed Hudgins:  http://rebirthofreason.com/Forum/NewsDiscussions/3324.shtml#0

 

Instead, what is it that our children today are 'looking up' to?    GM?  The investigation of the recall?  Solyndra?    Curt Schilling's Studio 38?   GE and IBMs crony capitalism?    Non functioning websites pushing government health care, where folks pushed onto MEDICARE are lumped into that 6 or 7 million?   Anything at all going an anywhere near that $4T being spent in DC?

 

Name one thing that this nation is doing today with that $4T that will be looked back on with pride in five generations.     Hoover Dam?   WWII?   Sorry, those were the America generations with a federal govt that spent less than $1.5T/yr (in population and inflation adjusted dollars, compared to today's $4T).   What the Hell is this nation doing with that $4T largely taxed from unborn generations(by handing them a busted national credit card?)

 

Watching China and India pick up where we left off?   We may not actually be doing any of that these days, but we are world class leaders at throwing up some actor in a GM/Cadillac convertible commercial and beating our chest about what we used to do.   Who the Hell is that commercial aimed at?

 

So what has been worth this $4T in federal overhead, bringing the nation to its knees?

 

Please say,  "the saving of GM and Detroit."  Public pensions for political cronies.   Propping up unions and GE and Harris Corp and Lockheed Martin and Solyndras while the balance of the nation is on its knees, paying for all this and sending its young to respond to all the cynical flag waving going nowhere, running the expensive clock until the inevitable 'never mind, we didn't mean it until the next time."    Now go tell the graduating class of 2014, this is why they were fleeced since long before they were born, and good luck, sorry we can't actually point at a reason for the fleecing..

 

regards,

Fred



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Tuesday, April 1 - 7:21amSanction this postReply
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There is four times as much surface area on the Moon as there is in the entire USA.  It is available and it is accessible.

 

400 yrs ago, America was a largely hostile inhospitable area with zero infrastructure.   I mean, who can live in the middle of a desert or a mile up a mountain range?  It was impossible.

 

But those were mere technological challenges; those, mankind can deal with.  Mankind loves to deal with those.

 

Today, there are no political concerns about indigineous primitives on the Moon being used as an argument to target stasis/death of a species as a species..

 

America -- the Old New World --was developed anyway.   That's what humans do.   They take on challenges, the overcome them, they seek freedom.  In fact, they gladly trade hardship for freedom.   Hardship and challenges are easy; while life in a 'secularly stagnant' tribe, slowely turining into rats on a sinking ship, is just an endgame.

 

In so doing -- developing the Old New World -- the concept of gradient was re-invigorated.  (500 years ago, still surface gradient.)   Not just in North America, but in all places of the world that sourced eventual settlers and trading partners and who learned from what those Americans learned as they learned what they learned, in freedom.

 

We saw a hint at the same thing with the limited Moon program.     There were 12 sets of human footprints on the Moon.   Were those 12 men the only humans impacted by that effort to make those footprints?   There was a -gradient' of opportunities created all the way back to Bethpage, NY, and Huntsville, AL and Houston, TX and Los Angeles, CA, ...not to mention the efforts and results at research universities and institutions all over the world.

 

In the gradient that was created in the Old New World, the technology of shared experience/learning was limited to things like newprint and sailing vessels.   But eventually, telegraph and radio.   And today, the internet, operating at some fraction fo the speed of light.    And that same continuing technology wave is what would connect the shared experience of a future volume based development wave.   Mankind's knowledge domain would not be limited to a thin spherical surface shell around this planet, but an expanding volume centered on this planet.   With some irony, earth would once again become the center of Man's Universe, but ... not for long, on a Cosmic scale of time.  

 

A fifty year effort to create new cities on the surface of the Moon would not have been about putting people on the Moon; it would have been about the -effort- to put them there.  THe start of a path of human effort that would, for all intents and purposes in -this- universe, never end.   Never reach 'secular stagnation.'    Results come from human effort.   Human effort comes from the desire to reach.

 

To look up, not down.

 

So why are we looking down, as a tribal national policy?

 

Just get the federal government off of Americans backs.   Trim it back to painting the double yellow lines down the middle of the road.  We'll take a collection and buy some paint and brushes and hand them out.  We can all get busy doing what we do.   

 

Americans will show the world what humans do when they are free.

 

Again.

 

Or, not.  Or, Obama et. al. can lead America back into the jungle and this sad tribal "Us, too" thing we got going on.

 

regards,

Fred



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Wednesday, April 2 - 10:09amSanction this postReply
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Two alternatives:

 

A] Take your child or grandchild outside tonight, and point at the lights of the new cities on the Moon.   Watch them look up.   Explain to them, "You are someone who does things like that.   Any questions?   Get busy."

 

B] Take your child or grandchild to the Obamacare website.   Explain to them why they have no trouble on Amazon.Com or Ebay, but it was necessary to mortgage their future for things like this.  Or, show them the new GM Cadillac commercial, with the actor crowing about what America used to to 50 years ago, never mind the Government Motors non recall of Government Motors(those wascally capitalists at GM), before it did, well, whatever this thing is doing with $4T.   "You are someone who does things like that.   Any questions?   Get busy."



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