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Saturday, September 25, 2010 - 12:47pmSanction this postReply
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I've just finished looking at the Republican's Pledge to America. Several things come to mind:
1.) It has some good ideas and good intentions,
2.) It is written by Washington insiders who were primarly driven by poll results,
3.) After the election, it will fade and can never stand against the insider's drive for power, and the elites belief that they know better (better than the constitution, better than the free market).

The preface is well written and there is little to argue with. I suspect that the Republican structure allowed those who understand and agree with the Libertarian position write this, and that for insiders, the power brokers, it's just propoganda. It doesn't get specific so just say what they want to hear. The only flaw on that first page is a morsel tossed to the religious crowd, "We pledge to honor families, traditional marriage, life, and the private and faith-based organizations that form the core of our American values."
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WEASLE WORDING

Here is an example of the another problem with the document: "Our plan stands on the principles of smaller, more accountable government; economic freedom; lower taxes; fiscal responsibility; protecting life, American values, and the Constitution;"

That looks okay on the surface, but notice what a giant difference exists between "smaller" and "small" - a 'small' government is something that is perhaps half the current budget.

Whereas a 'smaller' government can be just exactly the same government we have now after just one federal employee retires.

In other words, "smaller?" How much smaller. More accountable? What does that mean - specifically? Lower taxes? How much lower? And what does fiscal responsibility mean if there is no pledge to pass a balance budget amendment or stop the Fed from printing or massively reform the ugly income tax code? Throwing in the phrase Amercian values is just a coded response to the religious wing-nuts to keep their dollars rolling in. And attaching the word "constitutional" won't take us anywhere without specifics.
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That kind of thing is all through the document. You read, "By permanently stopping job-killing tax hikes..." Notice that the same as reducing taxes from current levels. And where it says, "We will further encourage small businesses to create jobs by allowing them to take a tax deduction equal to 20 percent of their income.," shows the insider arrogance. They will select this or that class and nudge and manipulate towards elitist chosen goals by "allowing" them to keep some of their money! They don't even realize the statism in their language. They think they are connecting with the supporters of Capitalism!
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Take a look at this paragraph: "We will launch a sustained effort to stem the relentless growth in government that has occurred over the past decade. By cutting Congress’ budget, imposing a net hiring freeze on non- security federal employees, and reviewing every current government program to eliminate wasteful and duplicative programs, we can curb Washington’s irresponsible spending habits and reduce the size of government, while still fulfilling our necessary obligations."

They frame the danger as if it were some outside force, like an invasion from outer space, as if the "growth in government" is a living, breathing thing that came for some where else. And they will "launch a sustained effort" - that doesn't really leave me feeling confident. Congresses budget is so tiny in comparison to the federal budget that to mention it in the same paragraph with growth in government indicates zero focus on the essentials. And when we are talking about a impending economic collapse of the Western world and these are the proposals, it tells me they are parroting words for political purpose rather than understanding what needs to be done.

They write, "We must put common-sense limits on the growth of government and stop the endless increases." So, that sentence it lets us know that future growth of government is okay as long as we limit it. In other words, it really isn't so big that we need to make it smaller, just don't let it grow too much. And increases are okay as long as they aren't 'endless.'
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They mention balancing the federal budget, but only as words that describe some place that their plan will "put us on a path" towards. They decided to not be so bold as to actually suggest that it should be a constitutional requirement that government not spend more than they take in.
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As to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... Are they going to privatize them so that their assets and liabilities will be part of private market, where they will either succeed, or those assets will be moved to stronger private hands through mergers or bankrupty proceedings? No. Here is what they say, "We will reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by ending their government takeover, shrinking their portfolios, and establishing minimum capital standards."

It isn't Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are taking over the government. What kind of nonsense is that? They are living examples of government taking over private economic functions and doing them so badly as to seriously damage the financial markets and our economy. It was done by senators and congressmen, who continue on today, and it is aided and abetted by the Fed without which it couldn't have done the damage. And so far, I haven't seen mention of the Fed.
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WEAK PROPOSALS

They are weak in many of the reforms they suggest. Like putting up Bills on-line three days before a vote on them. That's fine, but if bills can be 2,000 plus pages of crap that were built in secret, three days isn't going to help much. If it isn't an honest to God national security issue, it should not be allowed to be secret at any point. We pay these people, we elected them, they work for us on our issues - they shouldn't be allowed to meet outside of the range of cameras and microphones. And unless it is an emergency, bills should be online for 3 months. If it is an emergency, then it should require a 2/3s majority vote to pass. And why isn't there any mention of doing away with earmarks?

They write about how Americans are outraged with the bailouts that force responsible taxpayers to subsidize irresponsible behavior. And they promise to cancel TARP, but no promise to pass a law prohibiting congress from making any future bailouts of any form.

No mention anywhere of dealing with corruption, or changes to remove the purchasing of influence by special interest. No promise to make it illegal for government workers to be in unions.

No mention of reforms or changes of any kind for the FED. No mention of the fact that an Obama czar will head a new regulatory agency that will have power over all businesses from the guise of consumer protection and dictatorial financial oversight and will be funded by and report to the FED which congress can't even audit.
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IN SUMMARY

Don't get me wrong, most of this document is good - just not nearly as good as it should be. But there are promises that we haven't seen before:

"We will require each bill moving through Congress to include a clause citing the specific constitutional authority upon which the bill is justified."

And I liked this, from the first page, "We pledge to honor the Constitution as constructed by its framers and honor the original intent of those precepts that have been consistently ignored – particularly the Tenth Amendment, which grants that all powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."
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It is a partisan political paper aimed at the November elections. The religious folks hope that the tidbits tossed there way can be treated as IOUs after the election, the true supporters of Capitalism hope to use it as a starting place, and the insiders hope it will keep them in power and that they can ignore the Tea Party concepts after the election. And I guess everyone hopes it helps in throwing all the bums out.

I haven't heard much from or about the Tea Party Caucus that Congresswoman Michelle Bachman formed. They are probably not being critical of the document for the sake of unifying to get rid of the liberal in the November elections. My hope would be that they would, immediately after the election hold the Republican's feet to the fire for immediate passage of these items as a start, and then began a very public dialog with the voters about how much more is needed. Immediately after the elections, they have to start creating the legislation that is bold enough to really work at restoring a sound economy and real freedom.




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Saturday, September 25, 2010 - 8:22pmSanction this postReply
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It's a retread of the Contract With America, hoping to get the same results in 1994.

It's also a mish-mash of statism lite and unenforceable promises.

I'm all for Republicans retaking the House so we can get divided government, but this pledge is meaningless.

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Saturday, September 25, 2010 - 9:13pmSanction this postReply
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Jim,

The election results are going to be far more impressive than 1994 (but not because of this pledge).

I would never call the pledge "statism-lite" because it is going the right direction. It just isn't going far enough or written strongly enough. It is intended to maximize the pull of independents in the upcoming election. "Statism-lite" would be a call for a tax hike, but only a small one.

All promises from politicians are 'unenforceable.' I'd like to see a constitutional amendment that allowed a 60% vote by a state's voters to recall one of their senators or congressmen - at any time.

I would also disagree that the pledge is meaningless. It is intended to describe legislation that can be passed immediately - I look at this as giving rise to bills that will be passed during the first quarter of 2011. That is a good way to start. And if it doesn't happen, it will be fuel to keep the tea party motivation high. And, like I wrote, it is up to the tea party caucus and the good people that will get elected and the grass roots tea party to not let up until far bolder steps are taken to make our government far more constitutional. And that preamble is a step forward for the Republican party. Reality is that this is not just political propaganda for the election, but it will also be political fodder used to put Obama between a rock and a hard place when he has to sign resulting bills into law, or veto them.

Anyone that expects to jump from where we are to minarchy between January 20th and say, the spring of 2011 just isn't being realistic. What is realistic is to start going the right direction during the rest of Obama's term, then elect a good president. After that, progress can be much faster, but it will still require people being able to experience the results of more freedom and it requires time for higher levels of political and economic education.

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Sunday, September 26, 2010 - 7:47amSanction this postReply
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Steve:

The expectations about what is actually realistically going to happen after January 2011, I think, are at the foundation of some of those weasel words in that document.

Taking control of the House would be a start -- a start to the stop of the largely unchecked increases in bleeding.

But at most, as you identify, to replace them with a decrease in the increase of the rate of bleeding, or somesuch.

I think we are testing the limits of 'self-limiting.' IOW, I don't think there is going to be much, if any, deliberate political modulation of the excesses of government. The modulation is going to be brought about by repeated massive failures.

Like, the speed 'limiting' of an engine that finally throws a piston.


Spending is a downhill human effort; it is an easy walk downhill.

Public spending is running downhill.

Public spending based on public credit is flying downhill on rocket powered roller skates. That is why I don't think it matters enough, in terms of effectively reducing the size of the federal government, whether the current entrenched Democrats or GOP are running the Cronyfest.

The modern GOP has been paying lip service to the ideas expressed in that document. Maybe with enough non traditional/teaparty/ just plain folks(JPF) showing up with political axes, that will change, but not enough in 2010, it would take one or two more additional cycles to purge the system sufficiently of the old guard entrenched elites and replace them with JPF willing to trim the federal government and back away from the centrally planned/command and control economy running failed Soviet model we've been targeting of late.

regards,
Fred

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Sunday, September 26, 2010 - 9:27amSanction this postReply
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Fred,

About public spending being downhill.... that's true, especially for the politicians and those receiving the money, but it is starting to be experienced as uphill for the taxpayers.

We are seeing a mixture of pain and fear and anger. The approval rating of congress makes voting the bums out a steeply inclined downhill run.

I agree that it will take one or two (or three) additional cycles to purge the system adequately. And my attention is always on estimating the tea party movement's fuel levels. It was high for the health care debate, but then ran low for the financial reform bill. It is high for this mid-term, but what comes next? I expect that lame duck shenanigans will fuel the tea party enough to make them effectively force their new congress to toe the line in many areas, for a while, but Obama will obstruct and it is a long time till the next election. Will they run out of steam? Will the course become confusing and the voters loose their way? Will they fracture into splinter groups and self-destruct? Or, will they grow more efficient as they become more organized, more knowledable, and more determined? Some of both, of course, but what will the net-net result be?

Self-limiting is a self-limited measure for humans. The higher our confidence level, our self-esteem, our sense of not being alone in an enterprise, etc., the more power we have to 'self-limit' our government size. And education is such a major factor. Our culture is changing. The tea party is just the scouting party in one sense. Our awareness, as a society, of what government should be is changing. It is slowly moving throughout the culture and that takes time. The school system and the mainstream media are still set to go the other direction.

Your point about the spending being limited by the engine breaking before we put the brakes on is a good one. I worry that will be the case. It is a real risk because of how fragile the economic structures are becoming, and because of how much purging and educating has to be done before we can reasonably expect to be solidly moving in the direction of minarchy. But even more, I worry because in the state of panic that accompanies major societal/economic breakdowns reason is so much harder to find and there is great risk of going with whatever would-be dictator that pops up and promises to fix everything. Obama would be really good at doing that.

We, who are a kind of intellectual elite, are always at risk of under or over estimating the capacities of American public in this complex long-term situation. The best we can do is to look for our own personal biases and try to trim them so our estimates will be a little more accurate and so we will be open to better understandings with each new bit of information.


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Sunday, September 26, 2010 - 4:33pmSanction this postReply
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The Tea Party will probably be unhappy with the document for what it doesn't pledge:

- Big tax cuts,
- Big spending cuts,
- Balanced budget amendment,
- Term limits,
- a bold and specific approach to reducing entitlements,
- The end of earmarks.

Lots of stuff to focus on in January.

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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 7:55pmSanction this postReply
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Steve, I wouldn't be so sure.

So far I haven't heard a single convincing argument out of the Tea Party. They sound as convincing about being limited government as Richard Nixon did( despite the fact that I like him a lot).

I still haven't even heard a REASONING other than "we want to bring the country back to its founding roots", especially since if they do happen to get it there, I hope they can defend why it should stay there.

Right now, they have me about as convinced as some guy dangling keys in front of a kid's face.

I say it's gonna take a very long time before we're at the point in our country's history we want to be....several centuries. I'm not saying it won't happen, but the Pledge to America will not likely accomplish much.

If you need more proof, check the Contract with America. That lasted a few years, then Bush and Obama threw it to hell.

The next Democrat president in office( ohhhh, trust me, there'll be one...and he'll make Obama look like Coolidge or Reagan) will pretty much cast aside whatever "victory" the Pledge with America will offer for that brief period of time.

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Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 10:19pmSanction this postReply
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Steve, I wish I shared your optimism about how this is going to turn out, but so far this political season seems to be playing out as a not-quite-deja-vu rerun of 1994, except this time the bastards succeeded in ramming through a big leap toward completely socialized medicine. I have bitter memories of the bold promises of The Contract With America, and the reality of how the Republicans blinked in their showdown with Clinton over shutting down portions of the federal government.

The election results are going to be far more impressive than 1994 (but not because of this pledge).

Is this based on a gut-level feeling, or on objective evidence? Here's what I've found: These projections based on polling seem to indicate that unless the polls are doing a terrible job of capturing the mood of the voters in numerous swing districts, the Republicans hold a pretty good change of taking the House, but probably aren't going having a blowout win vastly exceeding the already dramatic takeover in 1994:

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house

I'm not saying that these projections of perhaps 225 Republican-held seats post-election are right -- maybe the voters are in a far more ornery mood than the polls so far show -- but if I had to put money down on the number of House seats held by Republicans after the election, and you offered even money on Republicans holding 240+ such seats, I would take the "under 240 seats" side of that bet.

Perhaps you would care to put a number on how many seats they will likely hold, and we can compare after the election who was closer to reality?

I would never call the pledge "statism-lite" because it is going the right direction.

The overwhelming bulk of federal spending falls under one of these categories: Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, Defense, Interest on National Debt. Is the Pledge making any firm commitments to cut any of these by significant amounts? What specific spending cuts, if any, do they mention?

What specific statist things that the federal government is doing is the Pledge specifically and in detail promising to end, no if, ands, or buts?

Are any of the signatories pledging to resign from Congress if they violate any portion of the Pledge?

A non-detailed, non-specific outline plus vague promises to give details after the election about what one might do aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

Post 8

Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - 11:53pmSanction this postReply
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Jim,

My estimation is part objective evidence and part gut-level feeling.

In 1994 a total of 54 seats changed parties. The Republicans went from 176 to 230.

The Republicans currently hold 178 seats. If they gain 54 (like 1994) they would have 232. So your upper estimate of 240 would already be far higher than 1994. You stacked the deck and then offered me an even money bet. That's not very sporting.

If you want to be fair, you'd take the under 233 and offer me the above 232. That still put the line above what most political pundits are projecting.
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Dick Morris states, "...54 districts now represented by Democrats in which Republicans are now ahead and another 19 where they are within five points and where the Democratic incumbent is under 50% of the vote. That’s 73 likely wins. (The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent, so if a Congressman is significantly under 50%, even though he may have a lead, he is likely to lose)."

That would put the Republicans at 251. Morris went on to mention this, "Only about 160 of the Democrats’ 239 Congressional Districts are even remotely considered to be in play. But that playbook is badly out of date. The Republican message has raced far ahead of the GOP campaign and put a lot of new seats in play. ... In fact, there are no polls to analyze in most of these 160 districts. Nobody considered them in play enough to poll them. "

My opinion is that the intensity of the beliefs of the tea party, and the percentage of the voting population that agree with those beliefs, and the rate at which this intensity is increasing are being under estimated. (This is the gut-level feeling part.)
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But there is another side to this. We saw an entirely new level of intensity in the voting of minorities, the young, and in the activism of the far left. Will Obama and the progressive organizations be able to gen up significant numbers for this mid-term election? I think the unions all across the country will be voting their wallets and that can really effect the numbers for a mid-term election. I'm going to be very interested in seeing how many people show up at the mall this week-end.
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On the pledge: It isn't "statism-lite" because all their suggestions are away from more government and intended for immediate vote (not their description of an ultimate goal) - what's hard to understand about that?

I'm not arguing in favor of the pledge. I'm not a Republican. I was just dissecting the different parts. But, your total rejection of it makes no sense to me.

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