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Post 0

Saturday, November 13, 2010 - 1:25pmSanction this postReply
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This show explains the "credit default swap" debacle. In combination with the other show you really begin to see how things happened.

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/365/another-frightening-show-about-the-economy


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Post 1

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 8:56amSanction this postReply
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It's a typical "blame the free market" rant. It entirely ignores the federal government's intervention in the housing market, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (and their "credit default swaps"), and the Fed's easy money policy.

Post 2

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 9:07amSanction this postReply
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I disagree. It explains the mechanism of the failure, which is of vital importance. Other episodes have mentioned Fannie and Freddie as well.

In any case, if you think the non governemental paties involved in this debacle are entirely without blame, you are sadly mistaken. This is not the either the governement's fault OR Wall streets fault. They are all to blame.


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Post 3

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 10:51amSanction this postReply
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Ethan,

No, I do not believe non-government parties are without blame, but the transcript of the program you linked puts no blame on the federal government, Fannie or Freddie. The only mention in the transcript of the Fed is Alan Greenspan telling investors -- many foreign -- that they were going to get very low returns investing in U.S. Treasuries. Investors believed they were going to get higher returns on mortgages much because of the implicit government guarantees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 11/14, 1:40pm)


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Post 4

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 12:53pmSanction this postReply
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"Wall Street"

We can easily get in trouble by using that figure of speech. In today's political culture it is contrasted with "Main Street" and this has become the fuzzy short-hand for the progressive/Marxist class warfare rhetoric. The rich or big business against the regular folks, the little guy.

In the past it was intended to mean the elite of the financial interests. For those who hate property rights it is the heart of capitalism because it is the home of capitalization - the location of exhanges - the NYSE, NASDAQ, and others - where property is openly traded and money raised. It is private control of a nation's wealth being actively directed by individual choice for personal benefit - it spits in the eye of altruism, statism, and collectivism all at once. The more sucessful it is the more it is hated by the left.

If government gives away money taken from taxpayers, those who accept it don't become criminals - in this case it is the government that houses the criminals. Only if someone actively works with the government and engages in something akin to bribery or fraud do they become accomplices, hence criminals. Those who are on Social Security "take" more from tax payers than "Wall Street" but we don't damn them with Marxist vitriol.

Wall Street refers more to Capitalism in economic and political terms, and more to capitalization and market-making in financial term. For every slimy creep that passed though the revolving door of Goldman Sachs to government, for every Timothy Geitner, for every AIG, there are tens of thousands of honest people and good companies.

Wall Street is a good place, a good thing, but a tiny number of the people that work there have gotten into a dirty bed with government. Clean up government and the problem ends and all the extradinary benefits of that business engine called "Wall Street" will continue to do its part in the generation of wealth.

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Post 5

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 1:08pmSanction this postReply
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It is also important to look at the kinds of blame.

The politicians took money at gun point, created legislation that both enriched cronies, and perverted normal free market approaches. They bailed out losers and cronies with stolen money, borrowed money and printed money.

As to the massive use of the CDSs which were being used as if they were insurance but without that one vital element that makes insurance work: adequate reserve... The whole market place wouldn't have been there without the government priming the pump, and the people who traded in an 'insurance' policy backed by thin air, would have collapsed and the pieces would have been picked up and we would have gone on but for the governments interference that bailed them out. It is very different to blame a company that makes a mistake and pays for it with bankruptcy. Private 'greed' that gets out of hand self-corrects.

One kind of blame is what we should reserve for a crook and the other is a bad decision - even if it is made by lots of people, and on a large scale. One is criminal and the other would be headed for civil court. Getting something for almost nothing has led many a person down the wrong path - they thought they were getting leverage without risk and their bosses weren't looking close enough.

It would never have happened without government, and that is where the heart of the blame belongs.


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Post 6

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 1:54pmSanction this postReply
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Steve W., thanks for commenting on the types of blame (post 5).

Another useful distinction about causes is proximate versus ultimate (or distal). Laws and government policies that set many of the "rules of the game" are typically ultimate (or distal) causes (link).  Those in the private sector playing according to the rules are typically proximate causes.

Proximate causes are usually easier to identify, and people often latch onto proximate causes and, thereby satisfied, don't proceed to identifying ultimate causes.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 11/14, 2:02pm)


Post 7

Sunday, November 14, 2010 - 2:30pmSanction this postReply
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Granted guys, that most people buy the BS about causes of the downturn. That's typical of many things in this world.  For me, what is interesting is the explanation of how the industry got into so much financial trouble. What were the methods that lead to the problem.

Post 8

Tuesday, November 16, 2010 - 9:33pmSanction this postReply
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"What were the methods that lead to the problem."

It isn't my area of expertise, but I'm guessing that these factors played a part:
A) These CDCs are so complex that it I'm guessing that many of the executives did not fully understand them. Maybe I'm totally wrong on that. But they may have just assumed their technical people knew what they were doing.
B) They were making real high profits and it seemed almost bullet-proof... enter greed.
C) The unforeseen (which should have been foreseen) was that the entire sub-prime mortgage market would go south at once - screwing up the only thing they were counting on for insurance.
D) I'm sure those who understood these things best must have had doubts but they didn't listen to the doubts and they may have thought that they would figure out some clever way to save things if they ran into problems. They had the expertise, but were like young Turks all full of confidence and lacking decades of experience, and the older executives with the store of wisdom may have been pretending they understood all the technical stuff when they didn't.

I'm just guessing on most of this, since I don't understand the damn things that well.

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Post 9

Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 7:50amSanction this postReply
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I don't know what Steve means by CDC, but he is basically correct.

CMO = collateralized mortgage obligation  CDO = collateralized debt obligation

A CMO is a pool of residential mortgages with the payments sliced and diced into tranches (French for "slice"). The timing of payments to each tranche is different. An investor typically only buys one tranche.

A CDO is similar, except that the pool can contain other forms of debt such as corporates bonds.

The earliest CMOs were created in the 1980s and the tranching was fairly simple. If you want to see a graph of the payments under a simple CMO, search Google Books for "The handbook of mortgage-backed securities" and then "exhibit 11-6".  (The graph shows principal payments; interest payments would be additional.) Over time tranching got more complicated. For many years pools were created from only fixed interest rate mortgages, but some later pools contained floating interest rate mortgages.

For an investor to know how his tranche might perform, it requires computer modeling and testing lots of scenarios with different interest rates, prepayment rates and default rates. Nevertheless, many invested in CMOs without knowing what they were getting, especially overseas investors. They bought the simple story that they will get a much higher yield than investing in U.S. Treasuries and CMOs are "safe" with some assurance from a Moody's or Standard & Poor rating, perhaps also with buying a credit default swap for insurance. CMO tranches are also very illiquid. After the pool has aged a while it is very hard to know what you have without a complex computer model, and pricing what you have is equally or more difficult.

The confluence of government policies, new types of investments, ignorant investors, illiquidity, opaque values, lax standards for mortgages underwriting, new types of mortgages, and eventually falling house prices created a huge calamity.


Post 10

Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 8:14amSanction this postReply
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Merlin,

Sorry, that was a typo on my part. I meant to type CDS - Credit Default Swaps, not CDC.
------------------

"The confluence of government policies, new types of investments, ignorant investors, illiquidity, opaque values, lax standards for mortgages underwriting, new types of mortgages, and eventually falling house prices created a huge calamity."

That's well said.... I'd just make explicit that one of the government policies was the combination of financing much of the boom with massive debt and fiat money... and those two took away one of the natural limits that would rein in dumb investments.

Post 11

Wednesday, November 17, 2010 - 9:50amSanction this postReply
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A friend of mine worked at one of the Fannie/Freddies and saw that right away, it was impossible to tell what you actually owned (#1) and that #2, modeling it like a security was completely false. Most people who had some technical expertise knew this was not going to work at some point, but everyone wanted to ride the gravy train as long as they could.

Post 12

Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 11:18amSanction this postReply
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Consider also the ever increasing change in mortgage loan ownership. Instead of a bank owning your loan a broker sold the loan to you, took a large commision, then the loan is sold off to another company. If the loan goes bad the broker still has his commission. The end holder is left holding the bag. The bag is really shitty because it's been bundled with other bags of shit. All the holders have bought insurance against the shit via credit default swaps. This was a disaster of amazing proportions!

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Post 13

Thursday, November 18, 2010 - 11:43amSanction this postReply
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Why should private investors be blamed here if the government incentivized this kind of investing? I always feel a bit leery trying to place some kind of blame for a business down cycle on private citizens when we have a central banking system that interferes a great deal in the financial markets. It doesn't seem fair. If Greenspan is saying you're going to get a low rate of return on U.S. treasuries and government backed banks are saying they are gauranteeing mortgages I don't see how you blame someone operating with the information they have with the regulations that are foisted upon them.

Post 14

Friday, November 19, 2010 - 4:16amSanction this postReply
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I blame the governmetn also. That doesn't justify what happened in the  private sector.

The governement taxes you. It's legal, but it doesn't make it right.

The actions taken by many of these brokers, financial institutions, and individualmortgage holders were willfully dishonest.

(Edited by Ethan Dawe on 11/19, 4:17am)


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Post 15

Friday, November 19, 2010 - 7:25amSanction this postReply
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Ethan,

It's true that the self-interested actions of brokers and individual mortgage holders can be viewed as willfully dishonest actions, but that doesn't mean that they should take the blunt of the blame.

Rand talked about how government turns business "to the dark side" and how a businessman's survival can then require the quasi-moral context of an emergency situation. In such cases, removing the ultimate cause of the "emergency" and allowing life to go back to normal is the number 1 goal. The ultimate cause is the best focus for moral evaluation of the situation. From aynrandlexicon.com:

A “mixed economy” is a society in the process of committing suicide.

If a nation cannot survive half-slave, half-free, consider the condition of a nation in which every social group becomes both the slave and the enslaver of every other group. Ask yourself how long such a condition can last and what is its inevitable outcome.

When government controls are introduced into a free economy, they create economic dislocations, hardships, and problems which, if the controls are not repealed, necessitate still further controls, which necessitate still further controls, etc. Thus a chain reaction is set up: the victimized groups seek redress by imposing controls on the profiteering groups, who retaliate in the same manner, on an ever widening scale.
Recap:
Uncle Sam pits Peter against Paul because Paul profiteered off of Peter under Sam's rules, leaving one with a sore Peter. Peter thinks it's Paul's fault when it's actually Sam's. If Sam didn't force Paul (and Peter) to play by terribly stupid rules -- if, instead, mutually consentual, free trade were allowed -- then Paul wouldn't profiteer off of Peter; because willfully dishonest action would become unproductive (as it should be).

Ed


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Post 16

Friday, November 19, 2010 - 8:20amSanction this postReply
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Hi Ed,

I don't disagree at all. Governemnt policy is at the root of the problem.

I just don't give give the brokers a break who made lones like NINA loans to people they were sure were essentially bad loans to be. I don't give a break to the dishonest or careless people who took those lones. I don't give a break to the companies that turned them into mortgage backed securities they knew were over-rated. I don't give a break to the rating agencies.

At heart, they all acted in an evasive manner.


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Post 17

Friday, November 19, 2010 - 10:32amSanction this postReply
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Okay, Ethan.

I can begrudgingly agree to agree with you. After all, there has got to be a moral difference between a John Allison of BB & T (he refused to jump in the mud and "capitalize" on the government-created housing bubble) and Goldman Sachs or whoever it was who was a really big culprit, subhuman, leech, maggot parasite.

Ed


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Post 18

Monday, December 20, 2010 - 8:37amSanction this postReply
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I think Ed has this right.

There are saints and sinners in every population. We can't be shocked when we constructivist fool with the markets via the enabling guns of government -- no matter what the intentions were -- and then the inevitable sharks come running.

Without the GSEs, there is no such abomination as 'mortgage backed securities' and the socialization of risk.

Without the implicit backstop backing of the US Treasury in 1998 -- at the peak of the 'miracle Clinton economies' -- where a handful of folks pursuing ridiculous returns in the LTCM fiasco, there is no establishment of 'too big to let fail' and the corresponding toying with moral hazard. Back then, it was only 3-4 billion in public funding that was exposed to 'the socialization of risk.' We were told -- then- that this was a 'once in a hundred year emergency event.'

And within 10 years, the inevitable sharks all came running to the new government enabled economic game, and suddenly we'd all kill for a 'global emergency' that could be averted with 3-4 billion dollars...

Pages full of economists at the time of the LTCM implied backstop bailout all screamed "DON'T! STOP! NO!" at the top of their voices, to no avail, and tried to wave the nation off ten years before the resulting crap hit the fan.

That wasn't a nefarious plot. It was a confluence of interests, some of them well meaning. The lesson was neither the unavoidable malevolence of criminal minded sharks, nor the pudding headed short sightedness of well meaning constructivists, but the danger to us all when we court monopolistic totalitarian solutions, such as the national policies that ended up influencing every mortgage and portfolio in the nation.

The enabling element was the over-reaching national power of the federal goivernment, which through court case and court case and even USSC case, overturned 50 sets of state banking and lending regulations and replaced them with a single point of failure federal ... well, national model.

The aritifact -- 'CountryWide' -- hello, anybody home? -- should have been a massive hint that we were on a dangerous path, no matter what our intentions were.





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