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Monday, June 25, 2012 - 12:41pmSanction this postReply
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That is an impressive article.

Dick Morris is also predicting a landslide. I like what Morris said about polls that are close between an encumbent and a challenger. The undecideds will always go in favor of the challenger - because it is like a marriage. If you polled the partners in a marriage of 4 years as to whether or not they wanted to stay married, and they said they were undecided... it isn't good news for the marriage. So, his rule of thumb in predictions is to count the bulk of the undecideds in the challenger's column.

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Monday, June 25, 2012 - 5:53pmSanction this postReply
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Curiously, the folks betting money on Intrade give Obama a 54% chance of winning. These folks have been right in the past. Let's hope they're wrong this time.

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Monday, June 25, 2012 - 6:41pmSanction this postReply
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It's still early, but all the trends are favoring Romney. The trend in raising money, the trend in Obama's approval numbers, the shift in the main-steam media starting to do at least a tiny bit of real reporting, trends in the polls among likely voters, etc. Almost all of the recent elections indicating the Tea Party is just as strong as ever when it comes to voting. The economy is bad, and the closer we come to November, the less time there is for it turn around, yet the possibilities for it take minor to moderate downturns remain in place (Greece, Spain, a city in California is rumored to be ready to declare bankruptcy, etc., etc.)

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