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Post 40

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 2:57pmSanction this postReply
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I don't think Iran is a significant threat to the United States even if they had nuclear weapons, and so I agree with bombing them only if they attack us, which would probably be never. We have no reason to fear Iran, and attacking them would cause much more problems than it might solve. Nuclear weapons serve only as a deterrent and in Iran's case would basically only be a deterrent for Israel's nuclear weapons. Iran knows it would be suicide if they used a nuclear weapon on the U.S. or attacked the U.S., and therefore they would not go to those extremes unless they believed they were out of options. It is best not to put your adversary in a corner where their only option is to try take you down with them.

On another note, Iran is significantly more westernized than other Arab countries in the Middle East. Its youth is more partial to Western culture. I think through the use of soft power, economic and diplomatic means, Iran's current regime will collapse from within. Most likely we will be allies with Iran in the next fifty years. I agree with Jim, Pakistan is a bigger threat because of its volatility, but even they are more of a threat to India and China. Our biggest threat comes from extremist groups who have sick ideologies and value death over life. The best way to combat them is through education and example. Our just actions will win out like it has with the population in the Al Anbar Province in Iraq. Preemptively attacking various countries that have current dictatorships who disagree with the U.S. will only justify their ruler's accusations and turn more people against us, like it originally did with many Iraqis. The U.S. was founded on Reason. Using force to combat our fears instead of reason will destroy our image as a beacon of liberty and justice and justify our enemies' accusations. Imperialism is not in our best interest.

Post 41

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 3:13pmSanction this postReply
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Steve in post 16:

Second, what the hell does a 'large number of American's' mean? Is that one hundred? One thousand? What's the number?

There's no way to scientifically calculate an exact number. It would be ridiculous to say, "If you kill 1,016 or less Americans, we do nothing. But 1,017 or more ... wow, are we ever going to bomb the crap out of you." Talk about giving the green light for attacks calculated to produce slightly fewer than 1,000 American deaths.

Rather, the larger the number, the stronger the retaliation, taking into account the context and circumstances.

Kill several million civilians in a nuclear attack on a major U.S. city? All-out war on that government or terrorist organization, with no mercy shown for anyone remotely connected to that plot.

Kill over 3,000 innocent civilians with a suicide bombing of skyscrapers? Take out that government or terrorist organization, and make sure they STAY taken out.

Kill a couple of dozen U.S. soldiers stationed in a foreign country? A strong but measured initial response, then offer them a chance to accept a face-saving resolution if it appears they won't pull a stunt like that again anytime soon, or an even stronger response if they appear unrepentant.

Kidnap a couple of U.S. soldiers and hold them for ransom? Dispatch a Special Forces squad or three and take out the captors and try to rescue the soldiers.

Post 42

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 3:27pmSanction this postReply
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"Iran knows it would be suicide if they used a nuclear weapon on the U.S. or attacked the U.S., and therefore they would not go to those extremes unless they believed they were out of options."

No, no jihadi has ever been so rash as to commit suicide while blowing up his enemy. Unheard of.

Do you know what the phrase the 12th or hidden Imam refers to? Do you know what world leader likens himself to this personage? Do you think this world leader is sane, like Mao or Stalin or Hitler? Do you have no problem chancing it, even when this world leader has made his intentions clear over and over again?

We have the option to take out iran's military capacity now. This does not mean invasion, nor intentionally targetting innocent civilians. You oppose this option, but have no problem with saying, "oops, my bad," if one of our cities goes up in a fireball, and then doing what?

Neither did Afghanistan nor Al Qaida. So I suppose, like Clinton, you oppsed do anything about Al Qaida until they attacked us? You may not remember the hostage crisis, but surely you remember seven years ago.

How did that plan work out?

Post 43

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 3:31pmSanction this postReply
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Largely agreed with Keller's post 40, and sanctioned it.

Two small quibbles:

The best way to combat them is through education and example.

Some terrorists aren't going to be swayed by logic and persuasion, in particular if they believe they have a religious duty to kill your countrymen, and will be vastly rewarded in their religion's heaven for doing that. If they kill your citizens, or are plotting to do so and have a credible chance of succeeding, actual combat against the most culpable may be called for.

We have no reason to fear Iran, and attacking them would cause much more problems than it might solve.

We have some reason to fear Iran. They are ruled by a theocracy that feels they have a religious duty to kill infidels. But the fears, in my opinion, often exaggerate the actual level of threat, since that theocracy is, for the most part, rational and non-suicidal enough to eschew launching nukes at U.S. cities. Iran is a containable threat, much as the old Soviet Union and Communist China turned out to be containable threats. Sometimes the best course of action is to buy time and work to change a society posing a non-imminent threat.



Post 44

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 3:44pmSanction this postReply
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Ted -- Ahmadinejah isn't calling the shots in Iran. He is a figurehead with limited powers who can be replaced at the next election. The imams essentially control most aspects of their government, not the elected president.

That isn't to say that Ahmadinejah wouldn't like to nuke us, or wouldn't plot to do so if Iran acquired both nukes and a long-range delivery system. But, would some foreign country be justified in attacking us because some U.S. Senator who went off their meds made some noise about nuking that country?

Post 45

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 3:52pmSanction this postReply
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Ah, so we're relying on the sanity of the religious leaders of Iran? How did that work out with the Taliban?

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Post 46

Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 4:49pmSanction this postReply
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A terrorist group like Al Qaida and the country Iran is not the same thing. Al Qaida is an extremist group that is independent of any nation and needs to recruit and maintain supporters with similar ideologies in order to exist. Iran is a country with a government that has a population and an economy to support and be conscious of. Al Qaida can sacrifice its current location, resources, and population and move to another area of the world in anarchy like Somalia, Iran's regime can't. They aren't the same thing.

We have the option to take out their military? Sure, we have the option to start a war with any country that has a military, which takes resources and should be used only when other options are no longer available instead of wasted on fear. Again, Pakistan is more of a significant threat than Iran. Do you think we should have acted preemptively with the Soviet Union in the cold war? Where would that have put us?

As for the attack seven years ago, of course I remember that. I also remember the attack on the Cole and the two embassies as well as the previous attack on the WTC. Disagreeing with bombing Iran first isn't saying I agree with Clinton on his limited action. They aren't even the same context. Afghanistan didn't attack the U.S, Al Qaida did. If you remember Afghanistan was in the midst of a civil war between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. I believe Clinton should of taken a stronger stance against the Taliban then because they supported Al Qaida and we were attacked a number of times. Even then, attacking Afghanistan in the 90's wouldn't have extinguished Al Qaida because it isn't a political body limited to one country. I also think we should have more force in Afghanistan now.

Now, in regards to Jim's comments, education won't persuade members of Al Qaida, that wasn't what I was saying. Al Qaida is an ideology that needs to recruit new members in order to survive and sustain support. Education will reduce recruitment and support. You will find extremism flourishes in areas were populations are ignorant and economies are stagnant. War creates that environment. As for the other quibble, you demonstrate why they shouldn't be feared because they aren't a significant threat.

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Post 47

Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 6:44pmSanction this postReply
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You're assuming that these people have a culture that values education in the first place. They don't. You have also stated that Iran knows that it would be suicide to attack the US. We have certainly not shown them that. The taliban is still around, and the pansy we installed as leader of Afghanistan is actively talking of appeasing them. Al Qaida is still here. Bin Laden is still at large. What evidence have we given Iran that if they can manage to develop nukes and use civilian channels to detonate it on American soil, that we will react to their loss if there is any gray area at all. They'll say that the weapon came from russia or the black market. I doubt the president who came up with the "Nuclear Shield" policy will act quickly or decisively in such a situation. Suppose OPEC decides to enact a "Oil Shield" on Iran in the event of a nuclear attack. What do we do then? They are obligated to help their muslim brothers against the great satan, right?
(Edited by Ryan Keith Roper on 12/21, 6:48pm)


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Post 48

Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 7:52pmSanction this postReply
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You're assuming that these people have a culture that values education in the first place. They don't.
These people?  Who are "these people" exactly?  And tell me, when did you get your PhD in Iranian/Persian culture that you're even aware of what value they place on education in the first place?  What makes you qualified to make such a broad and sweeping statement about a culture with which you are no doubt unfamiliar?
Suppose OPEC decides to enact a "Oil Shield" on Iran in the event of a nuclear attack. What do we do then?
Suppose they do?  Did you know that two days ago, OPEC announced its largest-ever production cut...and the price fell?

They are obligated to help their muslim brothers against the great satan, right?
Yes, the entire Middle East is a zombified culture of mindless followers of Islam.  All nations will fall in line and go after the United States...just like with Iraq.  Oh, wait...


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Post 49

Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 8:03pmSanction this postReply
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These people = muslim fanatics, which seem to be in control of most of the middle east. Sorry for the assumption of obvious context clues. I am talking about these people that are the topic of this discussion in this forum that we are posting in right now. They happen to be muslim extremists, specifically the muslim extremists that currently control Iran.
No PHD, just an opinion based on the muslims that were kindly enough to give me a lesson in the values of their religion by blowing themselves up in my general area.
No, the entire middle east isn't a mass of mindless followers. Nor are they a motivated mass of anti-terrorism personal freedom advocates it seems. What they are for the most part is apathetic to the actions of the craziest and most corrupt among them, and openly cheer any blow to western culture.
A monopoly on our primary energy resource cutting us off wouldn't be bad? Glad to hear it.

A quick aside. Iranian culture and Persian culture are not the same thing. I don't have a PhD in that either. That opinion is based on the persians I have met who get quite upset if called iranians.
(Edited by Ryan Keith Roper on 12/21, 9:12pm)


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Post 50

Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 9:58pmSanction this postReply
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I am continually astonished that warmongering, big government nonsense is sanctioned around here on a regular basis.

A monopoly on our primary energy resource cutting us off wouldn't be bad? Glad to hear it.

Did you read what I wrote? OPEC has nowhere near a monopoly on United States oil. The largest provider of oil for the United States is either Canada or Mexico. As a matter of fact, only Saudi Arabia is in the top five of relevant Middle Eastern nations. And you demonstrate that you do not know what you are talking about when you presume that OPEC is just going to fall in line with the radical Muslim agenda, because one-third of the nations of OPEC are not predominately Muslim (those would be, of the 12, Nigeria, Venezuela, Angola and Ecuador) and there are others than cannot even be counted as "radical" nations (the UAE, Qatar and perhaps Kuwait).

No PHD, just an opinion based on the muslims that were kindly enough to give me a lesson in the values of their religion by blowing themselves up in my general area.

Spare me the violins; most people I met over there were good people, and most Objectivists should be smart enough not to engage in collective judgment because of a few bad apples. Or would you like if your service was judged on the yokels at Abu Ghraib? I thought not.

Iranian culture and Persian culture are not the same thing.

I know, but, given that you've decided to lump like, 1.5 billion people into some zombified "Death to the Great Satan" mass, I thought I would let you know.

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Post 51

Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 11:00pmSanction this postReply
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Steve D. it's really not hard to understand what's going on here. See, you like to think that everyone should be treated as a civilized human even when their culture and history would dictate otherwise. You seem to think that most Middle Eastern people are good and going toward more goodness. It just does not seem to be the reality of the situation.

Many cultures have a wonderful history of achievement and civilized advancement. Unfortunately many cultures have given this up in favor of religious fundamentalism. The Middle-East, North Africa, and parts of Asia are examples of geographic areas where this is taking place.

The US does not have to do anything in the Middle East. We can close our eyes and just pretend that a majority of peace loving people live there. But we would be evading the reality.

So, if I have to choose between supporting a civilized society or a group of savages, I'll choose the civilized society. I choose Israel.

(BTW, your attempted condescension is not appreciated by anyone I'm sure. Speaking just for myself, I'll accept condescension from those who are in a position to give it. If you would direct some of the high esteem you have for the people of the Middle East toward the members of this forum it would be appreciated.)

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Post 52

Monday, December 22, 2008 - 8:10amSanction this postReply
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A rational discussion of options is not warmongering. Warmongering is "Yee haw, good job in that there Iraq, now lets get them other countries" I would not advocate war as the solution to our problems with the Saudis, and I think its possible Syria might be dealt without resorting to violence. Iran doesn't seem very amenable to any other method.

"And you demonstrate that you do not know what you are talking about when you presume that OPEC is just going to fall in line with the radical Muslim agenda, because one-third of the nations of OPEC are not predominately Muslim (those would be, of the 12, Nigeria, Venezuela, Angola and Ecuador) and there are others than cannot even be counted as "radical" nations (the UAE, Qatar and perhaps Kuwait)."

I do happen to believe that in a situation where a nuclear exchange or arms race happened in the middle east, most middle eastern countries would continue to quietly or openly support the radical muslim factions they do now.
CIA.gov lists Nigeria as predominately muslim, and wildly corrupt to boot. I pretty sure that Venezuela might not be counted on to reliably buck OPEC for the benefit of the US. Ecuador might be willing to maintain trade with us if there is a problem with OPEC, as long they aren't intimidated by Venezuela and their Russian allies. There sure is a lot of Russian naval activity in the area lately. No matter, I'm sure Russia would never use its influence to undermine us. Those other non-radical muslim countries aren't going to have nearly the same amount of freedom to determine their own course with a nuclear armed Iran next door.

"Spare me the violins; most people I met over there were good people, and most Objectivists should be smart enough not to engage in collective judgment because of a few bad apples. Or would you like if your service was judged on the yokels at Abu Ghraib? I thought not."

Where would you get the idea that I'm looking for sympathy or telling a sad story in need of violin music because I state that being exposed to muslim violence has shaped my views? I've heard a lot of officers make similar statements to yours regarding the essential goodness of the people over there. Might I ask your field? I was out on the ground every day in Afghanistan and most of the people I met were sheep, a significant majority were corrupt, and most of the others were radicals. A few were Ok, but if I had to remove from that list the Afghans that were removed from their culture as children and raised in the USA, that would be a mighty small number that impressed me. The opinion you expressed I have generally seen expressed by staff or officers that have little contact with actual locals, just local gov't and leadership. BTW, according to most of the news I see, my service is often judged based on Abu Graib and similar incidents.
An Objectivist might also notice that there seems to be an awful lot of bad apples making their way into circulation, and that they tend to kill people. If he were dealing with some magical talking fruit he might also note that the "good" apples aren't doing a lot of talking or much of anything to stop the bad apples. An Objectivist might decide that this seems to be deadly fruit and that the danger inherent in giving the good fruit a chance was far outweighed by what the bad fruit does. Radical muslims operate with the sanction of the locals.
Muslims hold a dangerous belief system. You're absolutely right that I lump them together, as I have seen no real movement among them to separate themselves from the radicals. Just silence. Just like if some Objectivist started gunning people down it would be MY responsibility to make sure others knew that I didn't condone his actions and help catch him.

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