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Post 20

Sunday, January 4, 2009 - 3:12pmSanction this postReply
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Ryan you make an excellent point. There was no way for the U.S. to employ the surge strategy without first waging a fast shock-and-awe military campaign to topple Saddam's government and demolish it to the ground, only to build it back up later with a pro-western government and American trained Iraqi police and military. Although I can't see Israel being able to follow the same path with Palestine. Demolishing Hamas to the ground yes, but I think it would be far more difficult for them to build up a pro-Israeli Palestinian Gaza government with an Israeli trained Gaza police and military. Not only is Israel constantly pressured internationally to withdraw from any land it occupies, I'm not sure if it has the support of the Palestinian civilians to pull off that kind of a successful reconstruction. America is in a far different position with Iraq. It is seen as the leader for international operations, it is occupying a country that was completely ruined by a Stalinistic regime, it doesn't share a border with Iraq, etc.
(Edited by John Armaos on 1/04, 3:14pm)


Post 21

Sunday, January 4, 2009 - 3:41pmSanction this postReply
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I think your right about iraq being a totally different situation. My point is that its a little more complicated than previously indicated. Certainly more so than the US does it right, Israel is doing it wrong. Previous comment seemed to indicate that violence wont help, and they should follow our example. I'm saying our method contains a hell of a lot of violence itself. As to installing a friendlier govt, the west bankers seem to get it a lot more than hamas does.

Post 22

Sunday, January 4, 2009 - 3:48pmSanction this postReply
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There was no way for the U.S. to employ the surge strategy without first waging a fast shock-and-awe military campaign to topple Saddam's government and demolish it to the ground, only to build it back up later with a pro-western government and American trained Iraqi police and military.

Not true. The original thought was that the shock and awe campaign was going to be enough to cow any and all resistance to the subsequent occupation of the country. You'll note that IED casualties are very, very small (almost nonexistent) in the first stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom. One of our greatest operational mistakes in that area was, in fact, "demolishing Saddam's government to the ground". There were entire divisions worth of low-level grunts, NCOs and officers who were not necessarily loyal to the Ba'athist regime. However, the decision of "de-Ba'athification" was made and no former member of the Iraqi military was allowed to be a part of the new military or government. This led to a lot of these trained military men taking to the streets with rockets and IEDs. It was a massive error.

America is in a far different position with Iraq. It is seen as the leader for international operations, it is occupying a country that was completely ruined by a Stalinistic regime, it doesn't share a border with Iraq, etc.

I do not see them as conceptually all that different. First, you keep mentioning that Hamas wants to destroy Israel. That is so. What you do not mention is that it is laughable to the point of insanity to straight-facedly suggest that Hamas has anywhere close to the capability to fulfill that goal. They do not. Frankly, Hamas's attitudes and the insurgents attitudes are exactly the same: Hamas views Israel as an "invader" on Palestinian lands, and will fight a war of attrition such to the point that international sympathies are raised and Israel folds. I say again, this is the exact mindset of the insurgency in Iraq.

I'm not sure if it has the support of the Palestinian civilians to pull off that kind of a successful reconstruction.

That is correct; they have to build that support. Look, here are the bare facts, people: Israel has three choices:

1. Do nothing in the face of attacks
2. Fight these "total wars" in the face of these attacks or
3. Accept that the Palestinians are here to stay and start engaging them. The only long-term way that rockets are going to stop coming over the border is if Israel builds enough support among the Palestinians that no one wants to shoot rockets at Israel any more.

And Jon, you should note that Fallujah was the exception, not the rule. I can testify first hand that, more often than not, United States forces did not initiate massive counterbattery fire when some yokel launched some half-assed rocket onto our camp. What we did do, however, is attempt to identify the point of origin, take a ride out to it (or a flight) in an attempt to either find the individuals responsible OR in attempt to engage the populace at large into telling us who launched that rocket.

Trust me when I tell you, Israel's strategy here will not end the violence. It's either total war and genocide on the Palestinians, or implementing the tactics that the United States uses in Iraq. Those are the choices, I promise you.

Post 23

Sunday, January 4, 2009 - 3:52pmSanction this postReply
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Previous comment seemed to indicate that violence wont help, and they should follow our example.

No it did not. I said that this type of total-warfare violence has been tried and has and will fail. I never said "be pacifistic". What needs to happen is that Israel needs to go out, into the streets, engage the Palestinians who are friendly (or at least neutral) to them while finding and destroying the current insurgents.

However, with these tactics, there will not be any friendly Palestinians left soon, and in 10 years, when all those Palestinian children grow up, we can go through this goddamned goatrope another time. Round and round we go.

You can say that we employed "a whole lot of violence", but the fact of the matter is that we did not just unleash massive counterattacks to every stupid little rocket.

Post 24

Sunday, January 4, 2009 - 4:20pmSanction this postReply
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I think you're right that Israel has the 3 choices you mentioned. However, to date, due mostly to international pressure, they have not employed ANY of those choices.
"However, with these tactics, there will not be any friendly Palestinians left soon, and in 10 years, when all those Palestinian children grow up, we can go through this goddamned goatrope another time. Round and round we go"
I submit a counter argument using the same sort of subjective opinion that went into that one. Soon the tendency at aggression will be totally removed from the Palestinian gene pool, as the Israelis will have basically exterminated it. Cooler heads will prevail because cooler heads will be the only ones left intact.
As a matter of fact, we have unleashed rather massive counterattacks. The entire operations in Iraq and Afghanistan are "massive counterattacks" for the stupid little things done to us. 9/11 was wildly more successful than the responsible organizations expected. Just flying some stupid little planes into things payed off big. Eventually a few stupid little rockets are going to hit something like the nuclear facility that is now in range. The israelis have to do something and their efforts at appeasement haven't worked, at least in gaza. On a different note, I personally have dealt with service members who have described massively overwhelming response to attacks in the beginning of the Iraqi campaign.
I also believe our success in Iraq is related to something that may not work in Palestine. I said it the first time the news reported some bomber vaporized scores of Iraqis in a market going for our guys. That sort of thing won't be tolerated for long. Their exposure to islamic terrorism turned Iraqis against the concept. Thats my belief at least. Not sure if thats applicable to palestine, but its the only thing I would advise changing. Put Hamas in a position to explain dead palestinians killed in their own operations to the people who keep them in power.
I will agree that cutting all the military members of the previous Iraqi regime was extraordinarily stupid on our part.
Again, explain how the Israelis aren't following our lead. They are occupying Palestine just as we occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. If anything they're being more restrained than we were.

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Post 25

Sunday, January 4, 2009 - 5:20pmSanction this postReply
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Steven:

There was no way for the U.S. to employ the surge strategy without first waging a fast shock-and-awe military campaign to topple Saddam's government and demolish it to the ground, only to build it back up later with a pro-western government and American trained Iraqi police and military.

Not true. The original thought was that the shock and awe campaign was going to be enough to cow any and all resistance to the subsequent occupation of the country. You'll note that IED casualties are very, very small (almost nonexistent) in the first stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom. One of our greatest operational mistakes in that area was, in fact, "demolishing Saddam's government to the ground". There were entire divisions worth of low-level grunts, NCOs and officers who were not necessarily loyal to the Ba'athist regime. However, the decision of "de-Ba'athification" was made and no former member of the Iraqi military was allowed to be a part of the new military or government. This led to a lot of these trained military men taking to the streets with rockets and IEDs. It was a massive error.


Steven, de-Baathification happened after the existing Hussein regime was toppled, which would not have happened had America not demonstrated overwhelming military superiority. Iraq had a standing army in the way of rebuilding Iraq. I disagree that the shock and awe strategy was failure. It wasn't, it was rather a resounding success as it's goal was the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime, which it accomplished. What happened afterward I agree was not the most optimal strategy, but don't confuse the strategy used to orchestrate the initial invasion of Iraq with the subsequent strategies employed during its subsequent occupation.

America is in a far different position with Iraq. It is seen as the leader for international operations, it is occupying a country that was completely ruined by a Stalinistic regime, it doesn't share a border with Iraq, etc.

I do not see them as conceptually all that different. First, you keep mentioning that Hamas wants to destroy Israel. That is so. What you do not mention is that it is laughable to the point of insanity to straight-facedly suggest that Hamas has anywhere close to the capability to fulfill that goal. They do not.


But that's not the point. Hamas rather has or had the capability of exacting terror on the Israeli civilian population. Because of it's proximity to Israel proper, it is very easy to launch rockets into and send terrorists into Israel proper. What is laughable is to suggest that is remotely the same as an Iraqi insurgency carrying out attacks on a standing foreign army located half a world away from American soil. Just imagine if America was situated right next to Iraq, we would have been flooded with Iraqi terrorists blowing up schools and buses. How the civilian population of America would react to that would be far different than what actually happened.

Frankly, Hamas's attitudes and the insurgents attitudes are exactly the same: Hamas views Israel as an "invader" on Palestinian lands, and will fight a war of attrition such to the point that international sympathies are raised and Israel folds. I say again, this is the exact mindset of the insurgency in Iraq.


Whether the mindsets are similar or not it makes no difference. The geopolitics of the two situations is what makes it so different.

I'm not sure if it has the support of the Palestinian civilians to pull off that kind of a successful reconstruction.

That is correct; they have to build that support. Look, here are the bare facts, people: Israel has three choices:

1. Do nothing in the face of attacks
2. Fight these "total wars" in the face of these attacks or
3. Accept that the Palestinians are here to stay and start engaging them. The only long-term way that rockets are going to stop coming over the border is if Israel builds enough support among the Palestinians that no one wants to shoot rockets at Israel any more.


Obviously 1. is unacceptable. 2. is better than 1. But how do you propose Israel do 3. when it is constantly criticized internationally for occupying Palestinian land and when it does, it receives attacks on their own soil for doing so? Not one Iraqi has blown up a bus in America, not one Iraqi has bombed a subway in London. Those facts alone drastically change the dynamics of the situation.

And Jon, you should note that Fallujah was the exception, not the rule.


What about Basra and pockets of Baghdad? The point is you said America did not fight any out-and-out warfare in the city streets. In fact it did do this.

I can testify first hand that, more often than not, United States forces did not initiate massive counterbattery fire when some yokel launched some half-assed rocket onto our camp.


Well since you're not in the IDF, you can't testify to the facts of what Israeli military forces do in response to a rocket attack. So who cares what you personally saw in Iraq? Not to mention, some yokel launching a rocket attack into a foreign military encampment half a world away from their country is laughable to equate to a rocket attack landing into say downtown Cincinnati.

Trust me when I tell you, Israel's strategy here will not end the violence.


Probably not but simply "ending the violence" is probably an unrealistic goal. It will I guarantee you at least mitigate the violence for the time being and take away the terror Israeli civilians are experiencing. The violence won't end until the Palestinians embrace western ideals. Until that the only hope is to mitigate the threat, not completely eliminate it.

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Post 26

Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 7:35amSanction this postReply
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1. Do nothing in the face of attacks
2. Fight these "total wars" in the face of these attacks or
3. Accept that the Palestinians are here to stay and start engaging them. The only long-term way that rockets are going to stop coming over the border is if Israel builds enough support among the Palestinians that no one wants to shoot rockets at Israel any more.
The third option sounds good and makes a lot of sense, except that these youngsters are going to hate Israel anyway. Unless a crippling or death blow is dealt to both Hamas and the madrassas that are financed worldwide by Wahabbi Saudi Arabia, there will never be enough "moderate" Arabs in the Middle East to build support among the Palestinians.

What did Israel receive when it unilaterally pulled back from Gaza, forcefully removing its settlers? When they bowed to world opinion and gave back territory they had occupied? Rockets. Why did they blockade? Why did they seal the border crossings? To try to stop weapons smuggling and suicide bombers from entering into their open society, where peaceful Arabs live and work freely.


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