| | Just when I thought the conversation was waning... :)
Thanks Rick and David for your additional commentary. A few points in response:
1. Rick suggests that Japan and Germany's cultures "had so degenerated that only the apocalyptic destruction and subsequent demoralization enabled the consideration of another path." Given the context of what was happening in World War II, I agree with you in general. But there were still ~elements~ of a democratic past from which one could draw in ~both~ countries. Indeed, in the case of Germany, those elements weren't even of a ~distant~ past---since the Germans elected themselves into dictatorship. A similar dynamic would occur in any nation whose culture abandons the path of individualism, and Muslim fundamentalism is certainly a threat in the context of such "majority rule." But because the problem is personal, cultural, ~and~ structural, we can't forget the fact that Germany and Japan (structurally speaking) had ~no~ allies left, none from which to draw structured political opposition to the US role. That is not the case in the Middle East, where there are many potential allies of fundamentalist elements across nations in the Muslim world.
2. Rick asks: "However, you seem to imply that only an internal cultural ecological evolution of an undisturbed region will bring any real change. Am I wrong on this?" No. What I'm saying is that even an attempted structural change from without ~requires~ the nourishment of internal cultural forces, which were present in the German and Japanese models, but are ~less~ obvious in the Middle East. That doesn't mean that it is ~impossible~ to affect ~any~ change in the Middle East; but the scope of change is so broad that it makes the possibility of negative unintended consequences all the more real and lethal.
3. Rick asks: "If we remove our military will they still not hate us and find us a threat? Socialist didn't make such a distinction why would Islamists?" I'm not sure that the socialists didn't---it depends on which socialists we're talking about. The US military and political intervention overseas was a problem for the socialist Soviets, but not the socialist Swedes. The key here is that while the culture wars are real, it is only political and military wars that lead to the kind of massive, armed resentment that we see in the Islamic world. The problem that some Iraqis have had with Americans is not American secularism (indeed, that is ~one~ hopeful sign among Iraqis: they are far ~more~ secular than others in the Muslim world); the problem that some Iraqis have had with Americans is related to political-economic sanctions, which have contributed to the economic blight of their country, and military campaigns on their soil.
4. Rick disputes the equation of "social engineering via a socialistic government and the establishment (even by force) of a constitutional government with protections for individual liberty and private property. The latter, even if not on the agenda, should be addressed in principle. If we chose this alternative, would you say we are forcing liberty on people? Is this social engineering?"
It is social engineering ~if~ it does not entail a nourishment of cultural factors necessary to the sustenance of liberty. See especially the Hayek quote above. The US can certainly try to impose a constitutional government, but if there is no ~cultural~ appreciation for individual liberty or private property, it won't matter. The socialist imposition of central planning depended, ironically, on the spontaneous creation of extra-socialist, quasi-capitalist institutions---black markets---to sustain the economy. A constitutional imposition, in the absence of cultural change, would have a similar, though opposite, effect: it would bolster extra-constitutional means of social coordination (like the emergence of private para-military mafiosi---most likely tribal warlords---throughout Iraq), which would have the cultural legitimacy that a constitutional imposition would lack.
There is a distinction, of course, between socialist and constitutional "social engineering": In the socialist case, no amount of cultural change would have mattered since socialism contradicts metaphysics and epistemology. In the constitutional case, however, cultural change is indispensable.
5. Rick asks, "now that we are there [in Iraq], what's your recommendation? I'm sure you're the right person to ask." Just as long as we're clear that I'm not the only person, and probably not even close to being the best person, to ask. :) It's like asking a person who is fatally allergic to cheese: "But if you could eat cheese, what would you prefer: Blue Cheese or Mozzarella?" For a person who is allergic to cheese, picking the poison won't much matter.
That said, my comments here are purely off-the-cuff: I don't think the US can ~reasonably~ be expected to leave in the short-run. I think the central concern should be the establishment of civil order first and foremost. I think a phase-out of US troops can begin as soon as order is obtained. De-Ba'athization, like post-World War II de-Nazification, will probably be essential to the establishment of any kind of post-war Iraqi government, but I don't believe that the setting up of democratic procedures should be a priority. I'm with Tyler Cowen, General Director of the Mercatus Center, on this: Ideally, the US shouldn't emphasize democracy, elections, or infrastructure development. Tyler also makes the following point---well worth remembering:
"Countries rich in natural resources have a harder time becoming well-functioning capitalist democracies. The political incentive to plunder wealth is simply too strong. Japan, Hong Kong, and many other places have developed without many resources at all. Privatizing Iraqi oil is a good idea, but we still do not know how to prevent a future Iraqi state from simply seizing the resource. This is one of the biggest problems that Iraq faces and we have no ready answer at hand."
And I can only add that this is a key problem, given the "neofascist" status quo: political incentives to plunder wealth are ~built~ into the current ~US~ system, let alone the one in Iraq.
Cheers, Chris
--- http://www.nyu.edu/projects/sciabarra/notablog.htm ---
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