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Post 40

Wednesday, January 8, 2014 - 1:28pmSanction this postReply
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Dean:

Krugman is an idiot. Or at least what he says is idiotic (he could be a smart manipulator).

Demonstrably a 'topsey-turvey' economist, as evidenced by any reading of this paper:

http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/debt_deleveraging_ge_pk.pdf


regards,
Fred



Post 41

Wednesday, January 8, 2014 - 7:41pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,

The paper is actually quite simple.

The Euler equation has been used for years to demonstrate the 'random walk' of consumer preference.

The working assumption, of course, is that the next step will be somewhat determined by the one previous, as stated within the equation itself. Randomness, then. exists within certain limits that gives Euler its designation

This assumption is challenged by Lucas, BTW, as being insufficient to explaining all of consumer behavior. Real behavior exceeds these limits.

For example, it's said that much of today's consumer habits are driven by 'flight of the albatross behavior'--not Gaussian log- normal but explainable only by Levi-statistics.

So some ten years ago, a math economist-- whose name escapes me-- demonstrated an updated Euler can, indeed, fit to Levi.

In passing, my experience with dad strongly indicates that, on the part of economists and physicists alike, lots of math updating is in order. I'd be willing to bet that many believe Euler to be alive, kicking and emeritus at MIT.

Now the paradox arises as to how Euler can accomidate data that demonstrates a liquidity trap, or "pushing on a string".

In this scenario, people's expectations are so dismal that they won't even borrow money for negative interest.

In the Marshallian scheme, this would designate negative (inverse) supply and demand functions, or the so-called 'Topsy-Turvy' of the title which you somewhat inadvertantly cited as indicating the author's mental state..

In this regard, the canonical reduction c2 = c1 + e = zero or is negative. 

Well, the Euler as written cannot handle negatives, but has easily been transformed by others (cited by The Krug), with subsequent padoodleing of some 70 years ago.

That's what all those straight lines at the end of the text are about. So, yes, revised, updated Euler can explain Topsy-Turvy, backwards sloping supply and demand.

And since Euler is the lingua franca of all econ-math, what the Krug has done is said to be 'meaningful' within his field.

The result takes the S&D quadratics and makes them linear; calculus 102 can restore the curves...

Eva

(Edited by Matthews on 1/08, 7:44pm)


Post 42

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 6:21amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

The paper is actually quite simple...

...minded.

The word we are struggling to find in all of that is 'calibration.'

Positive sloped aggregate demand curves explained by Euler?

I think rather, positive sloped aggregate demand curves by abusing Euler.

From the paper's assumptions:

"Imagine a pure endowment economy in which no aggregate saving or investment is possible, but in which individuals
can lend to or borrow from each other. Suppose, also, that while individuals all receive the same endowments, they differ in their rates of time preference."

Imagine all that indeed; we trust fund baby/individuals all roll out of bed each morning and 'receive the same endowments.'

Garbage in, garbage out. What lost episode of Star Trek is Krugman's math modeling?

An esoteric exercise in academic fantasy about some imagined world, safely tucked away under the bed at some Dust Bunny U? Why no. From the opening paragraph of the same paper:

"We argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical
episodes, including Japan’s lost decade (now in its 18th year) and the Great Depression itself."

He in fact was cruising the hustings beating people over the head with the 'conclusions' drawn from his cargo cult science show.

Fortunately, "sheds considerable light" is weasely enough that it is a parking ticket shy of an outright lie.

OK. You think this accurately represents some singular thing called 'the economy.' I can live with you believing that. Well.

regards,
Fred






Post 43

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 6:35amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

Krugman and his fellow cargo cult scientists have front end rigged the analysis by modeling 'bizarro world' and then compound their inartfullness by crudely mixing dynamic with static analysis. Second year engineering students are slapped up the side of the head for doing that.

SD curves are static; changes/shifts in SD curves are dynamic.

The hand waving explanations of the positive slopes of those static curves are based on dynamic arguments. Krugman's ultimate conclusions depend on a static analysis of the resulting -aggregate- curves.

That the cargo cultists do that within a fog of cargo cult applied math is, well, what cargo cult scientists do.

They get away with hawking their gibbersih because their nonsense is never calibrated.

Ever. Their formula is the same as their brethern voodoo priests standing in front of ancient altars: if the rain comes, they take credit. If the rain doesn't come, then the fault lies in the purity of last season's sacrifices. (Krugman on the size of the stimulus.)

regards,
Fred
(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 1/09, 6:43am)


Post 44

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 7:01amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

Here's Krugman cherry picking when looking back on JFK's America: we shoud bring back 70% highest marginal tax rates; JFK's economies boomed.

Here's what Krugman conveniently ignores:

In a nation of 180 million people, the overhead of the federal government demanded by JFK was $100B, over half of which was for defense.

We can inflation adjust that by x 7.6, and population adjust by 330M/180M to about 1400B today.

If we are -generous- and assume 0% increase in productivity over 50 years, in adjusting the cost of self governance(since 3 yrs before IBM introduced the 029 keypunch,) then we can call JFK's $100B about $1400B today. If you want to consider increases in federal government productivity, then let me know how much smaller that adjusted $1400B should be.

Meanwhile, our current federal spending is over $2.3T beyond JFK's fully adjusted overhead. If there was anything to this federal 'stimulus' theory, then our economies should be twitching like meth addicts in Breaking Bad.

And yet, as Krugman points out, it was JFK's economies that roared.

Methinks the facts prove that he and his have the sign wrong on that whole 'stimulus' myth.

Land Grant Teachers Colleges. Panama Canal. WWI. Hoover Dam. TVA. WWII. A free South Korea. Interstates. Mercury/Gemnini/Apollo Moon program. All accomplished by this nation during or prior to a period when JFK's federal government spent $100B/$1400B today or less of the nation's wealth.

Name one thing that this administration is doing with $3800B/yr that will be remembered in five months, much less, five generations.

Where is the evidence of a positive 'stimulus' to some singular mythical thing called 'the economy?' It is not found in the facts.

Instead, the highest marginal tax rates, paid by six guys with lousy CPAs drives something called 'the economy.' But lets blow by the payroll tax paid by broad working class Americans and the overall level of federal overburden on the economies. That defines cherry picking cargo cult political science.

regards,
Fred

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Post 45

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 7:14amSanction this postReply
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You're a riot, Fred.

Euler's equation (or formula; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euler's_identity) contains imaginary numbers. Krugman's formulas invoke imaginary numbers on steroids. :-)

Post 46

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 7:33amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

Now the paradox arises as to how Euler can accomidate data that demonstrates a liquidity trap, or "pushing on a string".

In this scenario, people's expectations are so dismal that they won't even borrow money for negative interest.



This explanation is key in understanding the wrongheadedness of the analysis.



It is not people's expectations that are dismal; it is people's faith in the economic game that is abysmal.

It is -precisely- the dominance of carrot/stick prodding from afar by disinterested third party carcass carvers that puts beast builders into 'we'll wait this tribal cluster fuck out' mode, that renders the carrot/stick prodding ineffective.


It is entirely self-serving by the remote disinterested third party carcass carvers to come up withe explanations that don't point directly at the impotent machinations of the voodoo priests standing impotently at the altars...

People's faith -- primarily, beast building people's faith --in the economic game is not restored by ever more frantic attempts by voodoo priests to carrot/stick the carcass into giving forth meat again.

Screw the GM bondholders? Crony state capitalism the game with chutes and ladders Solyndras and Chevy Volts and Curt Schilling Studio 38s on ad infinitum? 600 million dollars thrown at a f'n website that doesn't work? Are you shitting me? If we are going to move towards a command and control, centrally planned 'the' economy(because we want to join the USSR on the steaming trash heap of history???)then by all means, lets make sure that we have politSci politicos pick the chutes and ladders, because never having run a lemonade stand in one's life is fantastic preparation for that.

Model that, and Krugman might have a prayer of getting it right. Or, stick with the 'pure endowment (the[sic]) economy' where savings and investment is 'not possible', and where work/effort and the intelligent management of risk is not necessary to create and consume and circulate value in our economies, plural, because we trust fund babies all wake up every morning and 'receive' the same endowment.

Who doesn't just ... laugh when they read the assumptions in that paper? I mean, who reads the assumptions in that paper?

regards,
Fred




(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 1/09, 7:36am)


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Post 47

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 7:44amSanction this postReply
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Merlin:

Euler's equation (or formula; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euler's_identity) contains imaginary numbers. Krugman's formulas invoke imaginary numbers on steroids. :-)

For sure. Euler had a far less abusable equation that was the basis of turbomachinery design. At least that was put to positive work, so to speak. It has recently, in modern times, been rolled up into a concept called 'rothalpy' or rotational enthalpy.

Thank God, the cargo cult scientists have left some of Euler unmolested. But give them time; if there is a way to abuse stolen symbology to shill failed political ideas, they will be all over it.

regards,
Fred







Post 48

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 7:47amSanction this postReply
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Fred,

The original Marshallian SD curves were, of course, static.
Moreover, the assumption that Pareto opthomality is best achieved as a stasis relies on a model called 'Nash equiilibrium'. 

So-called 'dynamic equilibrium' is the movenent of SD to an optimal state.
This follows a thermodynamic assumption that, to many seems a bit awkward.

Real world-dynamics are commonly expressed, again, as 'random walk'. The equation is called 'Euler' because he was the guy who created a mathematical link between Bernouilli's probability and 'flow' over time, a long time ago

And yes, I'm aware that engineers use Euler, too. 

In other words, it's how one decision effects all future decisions. People are assumed as 'particles' because the scope of their decisions are circumscribed.

Again, Lucas' criticism was that people sometimes take giant steps, which correspond to Levi. Yet again, Levis can be integrated into post Euler modeling.

As an aside, Feynman's expose of the O-ring disaster revealed that the engineers were well aware of the liklihood of a statistically 'rare' event, to the order of 1 in 200. Also, lebvis are now taught in most finamce classes....

Units of calibration are given as prices.

In any case, you are somewhat correct in suggestiong that the methodology used by economists  to select their maths are 'Babylonian', pick and choose. Feynman said as much for physics. Feynman went on to say, in this regard,  that it's impossible for any science to  emply the axiomatc, 'Greek' metod of deduction from first principles. That's because nature doesn't tell us what these 'first principles are.

So perhaps Feynman was a cargo-cult Druid, too?

Economists use Euler because the math seems to fit two common observations--
a) people make decisions based upon probable outcomes
b) past outcomes effect future expectation, therefore future outcomes.

....and a third observation that was the subject of the paper, the liquidity trap, or pushing on a string.

Now all three observations are assumptions with which you're free to disagree in ways, hopefully, more fertile than labeling them 'voodoo'.

Likewise, you're free to say, Euler-based maths has failed to describe the phenomena in question..dynamic as it might be as a model.

Finally, you can say that no maths fit economics because, although we know that math is the language of all sciences, economics as such isn't a science.

At that point, you'll be hitting a rather stiff epistemological roadblock.

Either you'll be saying  that economics does not describe real, objective events (the definition of science qua science), or else you'll be offering a case for ecomomics that grants it 'special' epistemological status of no math, purely descriptive.

The later, IMHO, sounds somewhat like a virgin birth...voodoo/ druid incantations, or cargo culters awaiting delivery, as it were.

Eva


Post 49

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 7:47amSanction this postReply
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When it comes to the political abuse of imaginary numbers by cargo cult scientists, what modeled axis is orthogonal to 'truth?' Propaganda?



Post 50

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 8:10amSanction this postReply
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Merlin,

Four hundred years ago, Cardano created 'i' as an aide to explain how light scatters through cathedral windows. In other words, with respect to building structure, how must the wndows be designed to accomidate sufficient light to make the building cathiedral-ish without risk of collapse?

Since then, the the rebus 'square of minus one' has shown up in thousands of equations in daily use.

And as you presumably know, 'i' gives two outcomes, the negative is normally thrown away, even in the classical Schrodinger

Yet in another Euler (of which there are many!), the 'jewel' of Feynman's estimation referers to:
e^ix as offering a negative time-solution (pace Wheeler) to the non-locality of quanta....

What's therfore interesting about this simple Euler used by economists is that Krugman & cie do not jump on the 'i' and say, "See, we can obtain negative values by canonical use of the equation itself, thereby offering mathematical support to 'liquidity' trap. This, arguably, would be voodoo.

Rather he takes the methodical approach, as cited, using references within the established math of his profession....

Eva


Post 51

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 8:16amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

But I said that at the start: IMO, economic argument is political argument, dressed in the lab coat of math/science, as borrowed symbology.

There are not 'economic' theories. There are conservative economic theories, and there are liberal economic theories.

And none of them are calibrated(or even calibratable.)

Ever. In any 'units.'

(Prices are units? Prices have units. When borrowing symbology, it comes across as more credible when the lexicon is approximately correct.)

At most, they are circularly reinforced theories, which is not 'calibration.'

Economic debate is political debate draped in borrowed symbology.

"Accounting" is calibratable. Macro economic theories are not, because ceteris is never paribus. No matter how many spread sheets and lab coats we whip out. And so, they are endless fodder for poltiical arguments(where I've previously defined politics as, the art and science of getting what we want from others using any means short of actual violence.)

Examples of politics: commerce, argument, begging, deceit, fraud, intimidation, fear.

Economics purports to describe commerce, yet is not commerce; it lives somewhere in argument, begging, deceit and fraud.

And no doubt, sometimes lucrative deceit and fraud. As in, the 1998 LTCM fiasco, when a flurry of MIT quant 'science' was revealed to be so much smoke and mirror confidence game. They in fact did not calculate away risk...which was what they were selling. And the details are pitiful...let's just ignore the terms that are not modelable, call it a day. There is plenty of smoke left to wow the folks...pure voodoo nonsense. Yes, voodoo priests are still pretending; the stolen symbology is still abusable, which is, in clouding the eyes of marks with money.

'21' was a far more honest effort--other than ignoring the house rules.

regards,
Fred

Post 52

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 8:23amSanction this postReply
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Fred,

A small clarification on the usage of words, please:

'my use of 'expectations' ellipitically refers to 'rational expecrtations', as devised by Friedman & cie in the Chicago school. This, of course, includes Lucas.

To this extent, it's value-neutral, per intent. People are universally said to possess a mental framework as to what their money can do.

The polemical issue is said to be whether or not the 'expectations' are 'rational', the answers somewhat dividing along a left/right axis.

OTH, 'faith' in the overall system, or lack thereof, describes only one possibe explanation for purchasing decisions, which ostensibly weakens with necessities that must be purchased.

'Faith' also assumes that the potentially faithful possess a sufficient grasp of the system in which faith is to either be given or withheld.

To this end, I'm really not sure how 'faith' can be Euler-ized.

Eva


Post 53

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 8:32amSanction this postReply
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Fred,

re post 51:

Let's say, then. that you believe that all economists who use math are idiots, not just Krugman 

So don't pick on him.

Fine. You've made your point with enough metaphors to fill a book of poetry.

What you're saying, then, is either economics is not a science--and the project from its beginning in the 1880's was a false start-- or that economics should be accorded a special status as a non-math, purely qualitative science, one of a kind.

This is the query I raised in my last post. If you respond by further denouncements of math-econ, I'll simply raise the question again, "Okay, fine, then what is economics?"

Eva


Post 54

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 10:18amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

Faith -- a belief without proof or evidence -- is entirely applicable to the tribal economic game. The folks who actually drive the engines of our economies, plural, can only resort to faith when engaging in our modern value proxy based economies. In a barter economie, transactions are still subject to fraud, but all relevant actors are within immediate reach; in modern value-proxy based economies, actorsd far over the horizon can game the transaction, far from the value-value-proxy participants. We accept the efficiency of value-proxy based modern economies, but not without introducing the element of faith in actors far over the horizon and out of reach.

Faith that disinterested politicos far over the horizon, away from the direct value for value-proxy, or value-proxy for value at risk transactions that drive economies, are not gaming the value proxy foundation that supports value-proxy based transactions.

Faith that a 'financial services' industry is not colluding with other carcass-carvers and making jerks out of beast builders, by focusing only on gaming the value-proxy marketplace, and granting itself fantastic 5000% leverage limits while doing so, while the few remaining struggling schmucks still taking on risk in the value creation business do so under more reasonable 15% leverage limits.

When that faith has no basis, or is broken, the result is easily predictable. Don't need a pinheaded cargo cultist model. Simple conservation laws apply. When beast builders stop intelligently taking on risk and building beast in this universe, as it is, and the economic game is dominated by risk shedding carcass-carvers colluding with government, there is no terminus possible except the bones showing.

There is a theory that beast builders can't help themselves but to actually build fresh beast. Or maybe, at least, enough cannot.

There is another competing theory, based on the observation that those who can do will do, and this is not really a tribal race to the bottom of every hill, but an individual race, and in that race there is no doubt who gets there first.

regards,
Fred

(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 1/09, 10:26am)


Post 55

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 10:43amSanction this postReply
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Eva:

I'll simply raise the question again, "Okay, fine, then what is economics?"

You don't like my answer; that is OK.

Economics is political argument draped in stolen symbology; cargo cult science, not science.


Seriously; it's own practitioners cannot but sheepishly refer to it as 'the dismal science.' As in, one of the 'soft' sciences.

As in, at the end of the day, we have to kind of admit that it isn't actually 'science' it is actually something more not just like political science, but ... political science.

And, I've several times defined my understanding of the word 'politics' and 'political' (understandably, the most used and least defined term in political debate.)

Is this a huge secret?

regards,
Fred



Post 56

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 10:59amSanction this postReply
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From the egalitarian fountanhead of ideas, Wiki:

Political economy was the earlier name for the subject, but economists in the late 19th century suggested "economics" as a shorter term for "economic science" that also avoided a narrow political-interest connotation and as similar in form to "mathematics", "ethics", and so forth.[2]


So that re-marketing attempt "avoided a narrow political-interest connotation;" The question is, in doing so, did it also void it?

IMO, no; it was simple re-branding. "Avoidance..." of the truth. Because the leglifters wanted to be "similar in form to "mathematics"... etc.

Did the re-branding work? For sure. There are few alive today who doubt the existence of some singular myth referred to as 'the' Economy. (Wasn't all that long ago, even in the young 'science' of political economy, that 'it' was referred to as a 'them;' the economies-- a far more descriptive term for the complex systems, plural, being considered. The myth 'the Economy' is a totalitarian term of art.) It is as real as the equally mythical "S"ociety, for the exact same political reasons; the 'socialization' of the masses.

Some bought it without knowing it; that is, in fact, the function of all the cargo cult math. To confuse the legions of instructoids that get rotely pumped out by the mills.

Not all have been merely so well instructed, no matter how many have.

regards,
Fred

Post 57

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 12:22pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,

Okay, I acknowledge that, for you, economics not only isn't a science' it's total nonsense.

Therefore, all economist have been are and always will be idiots, regardless of political beliefs (Or are they a subset called 'useful idiots'?)

Had you not denounced Krugman as implicitally an individual case , this conversation would have never occored....

Eva


Post 58

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 3:42pmSanction this postReply
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Eva:

Okay, I acknowledge that, for you, economics not only isn't a science' it's total nonsense.

Therefore, all economist have been are and always will be idiots, regardless of political beliefs (Or are they a subset called 'useful idiots'?)



Hardly; I equated economics with politics. Therefore, under the time honored rules of political debate, I only regard half of economics as total nonsense, and half of all economists as idiots.

You were off by about a factor of two in your characterization of my assessment. But that is damn close for an economist.

Cheer up. Unlike Nobel Prize WInning Professor Paul Krugman, you at least got the sign right, and we are all grading on a curve.

regards,
Fred







Post 59

Thursday, January 9, 2014 - 6:37pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,

First of all, I'm not an economist. I'm a psych major who's taken several courses. I was able to take 600- method because of my math skill.

Next, I find it amazing that you'd label your political opponemts 'idiots'. This is neither the basis for meaningful dialogue nor the words of someone who'd be welcome in a house not of one's own. It's not 'time-honored' by any standard of which I'm aware.

If economists of different persuasions treat each other with respect, then why can't you?

Lastly, at least you answered my question: for you , economics is not a science.

I'm not, BTW, in any sense obliged to 'get you right' in any way that isn't clearly presented..

Eva


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