RoR: Forum

Another good thing and another bad thing (and something ugly):

The Good
Obama said that this country is the value that it is because of the creative, productive risk-takers (i.e., because of entrepreneurs and an economic system that allowed them complete freedom).

The Bad
Obama said that these early capitalists saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions, which is poetic but not only dead wrong -- but insidiously "anti-value.".

The Ugly
The ugly part of the inauguration was when Obama supporters showed their true colors -- booing a picture of George Bush (which, I think, is the first time that that has happened in America). It shows that they're post-modern existentialists, against anything that doesn't sit right with their unthinking hearts.

Ed

Post 1

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 2:21pm

I thought it was a pretty good speech overall. I was a little saddened that it didn't reflect anything that President Obama has supported or implemented to date. Nice words though.

Post 2

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 3:07pm

Ryan,

I was a little saddened that it didn't reflect anything that President Obama has supported or implemented to date. Nice words though.

That's how I felt with President Bush, only the timeline is reversed -- he gave great speeches first, then proceeded to contradict them later with his actions. In fact, with respect to not living up to those familiar "Big 3" Speeches (his presidential nominee acceptance speech, his presidential acceptance speech, and his inaugural speech), I'm of the opinion that George Bush II is the worst president in U.S. history. Several examples upon request.

I'm measuring that on the standard of the total or absolute disparity between the words spoken in speeches and the actions executed from the Oval Office (i.e., the quantifiable "duplicity" of a president).

Ed

Post 3

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 3:28pm

Ed, that's a rather uninformed opinion. How can you compare Bush, who never campaigned on not getting us into war, with Woodrow Wilson, who, while he campaigned as an anti-war candidate, was actively scheming, before his second inaugural, to get us into WWI? And that is to say nothing about such things as the Federal Reserve. Bush was incompetent and incontinent, but you can hardly call him actively evil. His father was a worse president than he. Indeed, it was his incompetence that both led to the Gulf Ware and which left Saddam in power. In any case, I suggest you bone up on Wilson, he's much more important and a much better object of your disdain.

Post 4

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 3:52pm

It was the worst piece of crap I've heard in years. Just awful.

I listened to it with my little radio on my desk and laughed through most of it. Nothing but empty rhetoric. Horrible. Two thumbs down. The only thing it inspired me to do was move to Argentina.

Sean Hannity called it a "real downer," and he's right.

I enjoy your recaps, Ed.

Post 5

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 4:07pm

Obama's speeches to the nation are designed to say nothing specific and include a few phrases anyone can interpret favorably. They are not meant to be interpreted unfavorably. Consider his slogan "anything is possible." Do you think he believes that 40% unemployment and GDP down 50% is possible under his leadership?

Post 6

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 7:53pm

Thanks for the helpful feedback (the perspective), y'all.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 1/20, 7:53pm)

Post 7

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 6:48am

Obama's inauguration speech...? Wait...was that yesterday? I missed it?

No, seriously....

What the hell is wrong with you people?

I can't believe you sat through it at all! Is Obama really that interesting?

I didn't even have the TV on, as it would have been impossible to escape the endless, mind-numbing over-coverage that spanned hours before the actual ceremony, and hours (and hours) afterward.

My reaction to his speech would no doubt have been similar to Teresa's (had I been inclined to subject to myself to it.) But I wasn't. I never have been inclined to tune into one of his speeches, not even for the purpose of ridiculing it later.

Post 8

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 8:02am

Same here, Erica - had my music on all day as I worked on my new rendering... was just another day with another politician...;-)

Post 9

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 9:35am

Hope you are joking about Argentina - read this guy's blog:
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

Post 10

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 2:13pm

There have been survivalists, conspiracy advocates and doom-sayers for the longest of times. This guy's web site makes me think that he is a survivalist. But that doesn't mean that those skills aren't becoming needed in modern-day Argentina. This link is a better connection to a good(?) article on Argentina - same site.

I don't know what the best guess at our future is. We can be certain of principles, but how they apply in our economic world and what the timing will be.... well, we are guessing. I asked a friend last night what his estimate was of the likelihood of a depression occurring in the next 6 to 18 months. He is a sharp observer and well schooled in Austrian economics. He said 10 to 15 percent. I think that is optimistic. I'd say between 40 and 60 percent, but I know that I may be reacting too strongly to my fears. And I will make a new assessment after we watch what Obama does in the first 3 months of office. And we will see how effective that democratic congress is - I expect that many of their worst efforts will end up with them falling on their faces as they stick their feet in their mouths (isn't that a fun mixed set of metaphors :-) My estimate might go up to 60 to 70 percent chance of depression, or it might drop to 30 to 40 percent. Hell, I just wish I had a good clue as to how much of this estimation is emotional and how much could be validated on a spread sheet!

I do know that if America goes the way of Argentina we will see some awful things happening - good people getting hurt, and bad people going berserk.

In the last depression, the inhabiants of the dust bowl moved west, those in the rural south sought work in the industrial cities to the north. We were much more of a rural nation back then. Where would people go this time?

Post 11

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 2:37pm

Invade Cuba????? ;-)

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 3:02pm

...Brazil, yeah, that's where I'll go.

Post 13

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 3:07pm

Steve:

Based upon what has been done politically to date and what politicians are proclaiming they will do, I agree with your estimates of the likelihood of a depression. It is possible that Washington will get cold feet and head off in another direction, but I think it is extremely unlikely that this will happen soon, so that if it does finally occur, it will be too little too late. Just today there is talk in the WSJ of nationalizing CitiBank with Bank of America to possibly follow. The UK is bankrupt. I saw an article on the web today (can't find it now) about container shipping almost coming to a total halt in the Far East. Things are crumbling at an alarming pace.

Regards,
--
Jeff

Post 14

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 3:37pm

It appears there is a rebound on that -

http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view_article.php?article_id=74571

Post 15

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 4:58pm

I also notices that revised shipping news later today. That's the trouble with the WSJ paper edition. It is always a day behind the action. There is so much fear and uncertainty around the world right now that these volatile swings will continue for the foreseeable future. As Steve said, it makes it just about impossible to get a realistic read on the state of the world economy.

Regards,
--
Jeff

Post 16

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 5:14pm

Uh, that news story (URL in post 14) is from July, 2007.

Post 17

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 5:27pm

Merlin:

Good catch! Here is an article from today that discusses Japan's 91.1% decline in ship exports. I wish I could find the article that I read discussing the drop in container shipping in the Far East, but Here is an article from the 20th that discusses, in general, the slumping container shipping market which intersects with an oversupply of ships built during the past few years.

Regards,
--
Jeff

Post 18

Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 8:48pm

Jeff:

I agree with your estimates of the likelihood of a depression. It is possible that Washington will get cold feet and head off in another direction, but I think it is extremely unlikely that this will happen soon, so that if it does finally occur, it will be too little too late.

We're on the same page with respect to the probability of a '30s type depression but I don't think that Washington will ever change direction to the right except, as in drug and alcohol addiction, when you hit rock bottom. And by rock bottom I mean rioting and starvation. The population is so enamored of this guy that the argument will always be, "But we haven't done enough." (Read 'sacrifice'.)

Sam

Post 19

Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 3:34am