This is a little off topic as such; however, I just heard an amazing interview by Ian Masters of Bob Bear, former CIA Iran analyst of 21 years experience, plus one of the major figures involved in the protests, who is coordinating smuggling footage of the killings and beatings of the protestors out of Iran. The two interviewees agreed that what is actually happening is that the military is staging a coup. The head ayatollah, Kamanie, is basically a puppet, without really having the qualifications for his position. He was fast-tracked by the Revolutionary Guards as part of the long war of succession following Khomeini’s death.
Note that Rafsengani's - one of the pillars of the opposing "moderates" ranks -family has been arrested in the past couple days.
According to the interviewees, the military itself has been going through a long period of religious radicalization, spear-headed by the Revolutionary Guard, and now they are taking over. End of the Islamic Republic. Enter the new Iranian military state.
They also commented on the recent meeting between Akmadinajad and the Russian and Chinese leadership. Bear, especially, is convinced that a new Cold War is starting, with China, Russia and a host of lesser regional powers lining up against the U.S., Israel, and the Arab states, who are terrified of Iran. Iran, meanwhile, is focusing its energy on becoming a regional superpower militarily. They also mentioned that Akmadinajad's seemingly crazy rhetoric regarding issues such as the existence of the Israeli state or the truth of the Holocaust are never for internal consumption, but rather are aimed at the lower class Arab/Palestinian street, for the purpose of destabilizing various hostile regimes, such as the Arab states.
I personally don't see anything useful that Obama can do at this point regarding the internal politics of Iran. Bear is convinced that the Neocons are still a power in Washington, and are quite pleased with recent developments, as they play into their continued desire for a war with Iran.
So, I'm divided now in my worrying between North Korea, Venezuela, China and Iran, and their connections and coordinations, military and economic. What a fine kettle of fish! North Korea, in particular, seems determined to keep pushing until the U.S. is forced into a preemtive strike. I suspect that, canny as they are in manipulation, they utterly fail to grasp the underlying fact that when pushed into a corner, the U.S. does ultimately act. That point may well come when N. Korea demonstrates its capability to hit Hawaii, and could very possibly take the form of a nuclear strike against the massive artillery positions just North of the DMZ.
Much of that artillery, most likely aimed at Seoul or other civilian centers, allegedly including germ and gas shells, is buried far underground in the mountains, meaning that only the heaviest - ~25Megaton - weapons would take them out, and it would have to be a precisely coordinated attack, involving perhaps a dozen warheads all hitting within a minute or so, before the artillery could be fired. If it worked in preventing the carnage to the South from the buried artillery, the consequences would include a new highly radioactive DMZ stretching fifty files into the North, through which no army could pass and live. It might also serve as a useful warning to wanna-be nuclear powers, such as Iran.
Of course, there would also be blowback...
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