| | How Intrade Works[selected pointers from the details; see link below - MEM]
Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event There are two possible outcomes to each of these events - yes, the event will happen as described, or no, it will not happen. The Dow Jones will either close on or above 13,000 or it won't. Barack Obama will either be re-elected President in 2012 or he won't. You get the idea.
- If you predict the market event will happen then you BUY shares
- If you predict the market event will not happen then you SELL shares.
Intrade is an exchange - like the New York or London stock exchanges for example. When you buy shares you are buying them from another member of Intrade. And when you sell shares, another member of the exchange is buying them from you. You do not buy shares from Intrade, and Intrade does not buy shares from you. You are always trading shares with other members of the exchange - other people who are making predictions, just like you.
It is important to remember that Intrade is a market. This means you may not always be able to get what you want. If you are looking to buy some shares, but nobody is selling, then you can't buy the shares that you want.
When the outcome of an event is known, the market is settled. The market will always be settled at either $0.00 or $10.00 according to the actual real-life outcome:
- YES, the market event has happened - the market will be settled at $10.00.
- NO, the market event has not happened - the market will be settled at $0.00.
How much of a profit will depend on the price you paid for the shares.
For example, let's say you buy 10 shares at a price of $6.00. The maximum amount you can lose per share is $6.00 (if the market settles at $0.00), so your total potential loss is $60.00 (10 shares x $6.00). When you buy these shares $60.00 is frozen in your account to prevent you using the same funds to cover other predictions. If you don't have $60.00 in your account, you can't buy those shares.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
- Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012 44.5%CHANCE
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 55.0%CHANCE
Republican President + Republican Senate + Republican House of Rep. after 2012 elections - Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
Average national price of gasoline to hit $4.50 per gallon or more before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
Average national price of gasoline to hit $5.00 per gallon or more before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012 - Cuba to be removed from State Sponsors of Terrorism List
Iran to be removed from State Sponsors of Terrorism List
Syria to be removed from State Sponsors of Terrorism List
Sudan to be removed from State Sponsors of Terrorism List - Arctic sea ice extent for Sep 2012 to be less than 4.3 million square kilometres
Arctic sea ice extent for Sep 2012 to be less than 4.0 million square kilometres
Arctic sea ice extent for Sep 2012 to be less than 3.7 million square kilometres - Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014ares
Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2012 - The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012
... and much more...
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