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Saturday, June 2, 2007 - 5:35amSanction this postReply
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When is a conspiracy not a conspiracy?

Daniel Pipes defines conspiracy theory as "the fear of non-existent conspiracies."  By that standard, the chemist Louis Pasteur sought the origin of disease in non-existent "germs."  (No one had ever seen one.)  In the lifetime before Pasteur chemists sought to understand the world through the operation of non-existent "atoms." You do not know until you have proof that you have proof.   In other words, while not every claim to the existence of a "conspiracy" is true such claims are no less (or more) valid than any other assertion lacking direct evidence. 
That some people who happen to have social standing and who also happen to evidence African-American ancestry assert that AIDS is a government conspiracy against the black community might achieve some weight from the Tuskegee Experiments.
When federal police confronted the Branch Davidians at Waco, the media spread stories of sexual depravity, weird rituals, and a plot against the outside world—exactly the kind of fables the medieval authorities told about Jews and heretics. The result, as before, was a pogrom.
But this event never works its way into Pipes’s account. If it did, he’d probably accuse the Davidians of paranoia. He’d be right, of course, but he’d miss the heart of the tale. Which, come to think of it, is exactly what he’s done.
Title: Conspiracy: How the Paranoid Style Flourishes and Where it Comes From
Author: Daniel Pipes
Published: New York: The Free Press, 1997
Price: $25.00 (hardcover), $17.00 (softcover)
Pages: 258
Reviewer: Jesse Walker
Affiliation: Competitive Enterprise Institute
http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?articleID=366&issueID=29

From the author's website:
Conspiracy theories - the fear of nonexistent conspiracies - are flourishing in the United States. Republican, Democratic, and independent presidential candidates espouse them. Growing political institutions (the Nation of Islam, the militias) are premised on them. A majority of Americans say they believe John F. Kennedy was killed not by a lone gunman but by a conspiracy, and a majority of black Americans hold the U.S. government responsible for the spread of drugs. O. J. Simpson famously beat his criminal rap by convincing a jury of a conspiracy theory: that the Los Angeles police framed him. Two young men, their heads spinning with conspiracy theories about Washington taking freedoms away from Americans, blew up a government building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 (including 19 children) and wounding 550.
Chapter 1: Conspiracy Theories Everywhere
from Conspiracy: How the Paranoid Style Flourishes and Where It Comes From
http://www.danielpipes.org/books/conspiracychap.php

The review by Jesse Walker for the Independent Insttitute goes into detail on the sloppy research in this book.  I take these two examples from the chapter posted on the author's website.
"A majority of Americans say they believe John F. Kennedy was killed not by a lone gunman but by a conspiracy, and a majority of black Americans hold the U.S. government responsible for the spread of drugs."
There are no citations for these claims.  According to which poll?  For something this important to the thesis of the book, I would expect more than one of each, by different agencies over time.  In other words, I would expect a Harris Poll from 1980 and a Gallup Poll from 1993 and so on.  This is not a minor point, after all, something we can accept prima facie and then keep going,  like the number of sport fishermen in an article about hunting.  This allegation is central to the thesis.  It is unsubstantiated.
" A columnist calls these "the life blood of the African-American community," and a clinical psychologist notes that there is "probably no conspiracy involving African-Americans that was too far-fetched, too fantastic, or too convoluted."
Who are these people?  Who is the columnist?  Is this a nationally syndicated columnist? What is the syndicate?  Forgive my extreme age, but in my youth, I read William F. Buckley, Walter Lippman, and Art Buchwald.  They were syndicated.  Then, reading tabloids and other magazines from the supermarket check-out, I discovered other "syndicated columnists" 
Furthermore, I point out that for three years I have been a columnist for the American Numismatic Association, an organization which is over 100 years old and was chartered by Congress in 1912.  And the only other private organization with a Congressional charter is the American Red Cross.  So, am I a congressionally approved columnist whose assertions can pass muster without attribution or identification... or facts
Who is the "clinical psychologist"?  Again, I point out that in a matter of weeks, I am going to be a degreed criminologist and in a matter of months I will be state-licensed.  I must insist that no one allow those hallmarks to hoist me above standards for proof.  Certainly, when I claim that social poverty is a consequence of personal criminality -- a truth I learned from Robert Bidinotto who cited Dr.Stanton Sameow -- that the claim at least be attributed to me... even if the citator is too lazy to track my sources

This summer, I have a class in social science research.  We are expected to read, review and criticise three kinds of journal article.  I asked if undergraduates could find procedural faults with works that have passed peer review.  My instructor said -- as politely as he could -- that there is a lot junk out there.  This book is evidence of that claim.


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Saturday, June 2, 2007 - 11:51amSanction this postReply
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Mike,

If there are flaws in the citations or research in this book, you do well to point them out. I have not read this book. I posted this link since I know that many people on this site would be interested in what he might have to say.

I have two concerns with your comments, Mike. Matters of common knowledge can legitimately be cited without attribution or documentation, especially in a popular book. If you had asked me about how many people believe that there was a cover-up of a conspiracy in the Kennedy assassination, or how many blacks think that drugs, and especially crack were government plots, I'd have said it's a majority. I here such comment everywhere, all the time, and whenever the topics are brought up. Most of my friends and daily acquaintances in NYC are black. I have heard all sorts of conspiracy theories about Jews, Republicans, and so forth expressed and approved by acclimation too many times to count. Remember how GWB won the Florida election because the police had set up roadblocks and had been arresting and intimidating would-be black voters?

Indeed, these claims are even today being repeated, but not one single example of an arrested or intimidated black person has ever been produced. Ann Coulter, in her books, has addressed this. She produces footnotes and citations and sources. I am sure you read her?

Can you produce a poll that shows that a majority of blacks do not believe in anti-black conspiracies by the US government or by Republicans specifically? Can you produce a poll showing that a majority of Americans don't believe in some sort of conspiracy in the Kennedy assassination? I do concede that the burden of proof lies on him who makes the positive claim. But If you wish to show that Pipes is wrong, rather than just sloppy in these matters which most would see as common knowledge, then show the counter-evidence.

Second, you analogy between the germ theory of disease and atomic theory on one hand and conspiracy theories on the other side is absolutely dead wrong. Conspiracy theories are about social metaphysics, about people's opinions based on people's opinions about people's opinions. Pasteur and Priestly, et al. had absolutely no care for popular beliefs, rumors, or opinion polls. They had reasons to believe what they subsequently proved through research and replicable experiment. Conspiracy theory is primacy of consciousness. Science is primacy of existence. Vile secret acts and programs such as the Tuskeegee Experimnt have indeed existed, and have been revealed when the evidence has been found. Conspiracy theories are conclusion not only not in search of evidence, but also adamantly opposed to disproof by fact.

Ted Keer

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Monday, June 4, 2007 - 5:45amSanction this postReply
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Well, Ted, I was sorry when I posted that I did not see that the original article was from you.  I knew that you were going to take this personally.  I would have said nothing, actually, but as we are engaged, let's duke it out and see who will be the last man standing.
TK: -- Can you produce a poll that shows that a majority of blacks do not believe in anti-black conspiracies by the US government or by Republicans specifically? Can you produce a poll showing that a majority of Americans don't believe in some sort of conspiracy in the Kennedy assassination? I do concede that the burden of proof lies on him who makes the positive claim. But If you wish to show that Pipes is wrong, rather than just sloppy in these matters which most would see as common knowledge, then show the counter-evidence.
When I worked in campus safety, our nanny state liberal administration banned smoking on campus.  It is an enforcement nightmare and on a college campus, it only invites socratic dialogs on the nature of rules and why individuals need to follow them.  In these debates, some people have told me that "everyone smokes."  In fact, only 20% to 25% of the client learners smoke and about half of them supported the ban.  That, at least, is what an informal (non-scientific, though procedural) poll of the student body by the administration revealed.  But if you smoke, and if some of your friends do, too, then the world looks different to you.

Maybe "everyone" you know claims these things.  "No one" I know does.  So, I want to see some numbers. 

As the reviewer Jesse Walker pointed out, Julius Caesar was killed by a conspiracy and for every successful one, there must be others that failed. 

Again, pointing to Penn & Teller, they also debunk 9/11 conspiracies -- but they conclude by stating emphatically that the destruction of the World Trade Center was caused by a conspiracy... of Islamist extremists. 

The thesis here is that conspiracy theories follow non-existent conspiracies.   (1)  How do you know if a conspiracy is real until you investigate it?  (2) What about the real conspiracies that drive our world? 

About 20 years ago, a populist conservative gave me some tapes warning about the World Bank and the Bilderbergers and the Federal Reserve's "debt money" (you can find it on RoR, even) and amid all that, he told me that Ayn Rand was the mistress of Leonard Read and that Atlas Shrugged was the outline of a plan by the world's capitalists to destroy our civilization so that they could come back and rule us as their slaves.  I guess that makes you and me members of a conspiracy.


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Monday, June 4, 2007 - 5:30pmSanction this postReply
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Mike, I'm touched, and I don't mean that with any sarcasm. (And why do people keep assuming that I take arguments personally? Seriously? Yes! Personally? Rarely.) I'll just sanction your post, and advise readers that the show was interesting, and make one comment: No, you and I are not in any secret conspiracy to establish free trade and the rule of law. But if you have an in with anyone, put in a good word for me.

See you at the lodge,

Ted


(Edited by Ted Keer
on 6/04, 5:33pm)


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