| | Roy Spencer's website helps tell the story.
Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/satellite-and-climate-model-evidence/
*********************** It is well known that most of that warming is NOT due to the direct warming effect of the CO2 by itself, which is relatively weak. It is instead due to indirect effects (positive feedbacks) that amplify the small amount of direct warming from the CO2. The most important warmth-amplifying feedbacks in climate models are clouds and water vapor. ***********************
Recap: Emitted CO2 hardly warms the earth at all, but clouds and water vapor are supposed to provide the positive feedback necessary to amplify the effects of emitted CO2 (in order to warm the earth by a meaningful amount).
*********************** ... all twenty climate models tracked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now suggest cloud feedbacks are positive (warmth-amplifying) rather than negative (warmth-reducing). ***********************
Recap: All IPCC scientists make the same basic assumption that clouds cause warming (positive feedback).
*********************** Imagine you are out in space, observing the Earth, and feeling the radiant energy it gives off from sunlight reflected off of clouds and from the infrared (heat) radiation it emits in proportion to its temperature.
Now imagine that the Earth�s surface and atmosphere suddenly warm by 1 deg. C, everywhere. In this case the Earth would immediately give off an extra 3.3 Watts per square meter of infrared energy (just as a hot stovetop element gives off more infrared energy than a warm one).
This example represents the �no feedback� case�only the temperature has changed in the system, resulting in extra infrared energy being given off, at a rate of 3.3 Watts per square meter for every degree C of temperature increase. But in the real world, any source of warming (or cooling) causes other changes in clouds, water vapor, etc., to occur. These can cause extra warming if they either increase the amount of absorbed sunlight (e.g. fewer low clouds), or reduce the rate of infrared radiation to outer space (e.g. more water vapor, our main greenhouse gas). These warmth-amplifying changes are called positive feedbacks.
Alternatively, cloud and water vapor changes could decrease the amount of absorbed sunlight or increase the amount of emitted infrared energy, thus reducing the warming. This is called negative feedback.
That number (3.3) thus represents the magic boundary between positive and negative feedback. If satellites measure more than 3.3 Watts per square meter given off by the Earth per degree of global warming, that is evidence of negative feedback. If the number is less than 3.3, that is positive feedback. ***********************
Recap: If satellites measure more than 3.3 Watts per square meter per degree Celsius temperature increase, then negative feedback occurred -- either from lower absorption of sunlight to the earth, or from higher emission of infrared (radiant) energy from the earth (to outer space).
Fun fact: Getting more than 3.3 Watts per square meter per degree Celsius temperature increase would disprove all IPCC climate models.
*********************** The 20 climate models tracked by the IPCC have feedbacks ranging from about 0.9 to 1.9 (all corresponding to positive feedback since they are less than 3.3). ***********************
Fun Fact: Getting more than 1.9 Watts per square meter per degree Celsius temperature increase would disprove all IPCC models.
*********************** When low cloud cover is observed to decrease with warming, is the cloud change the result of the warming, or is the warming the result of the cloud change? ***********************
*********************** Decreasing low cloud cover caused by warming would be a positive feedback, since it would let more sunlight in. But what if, say, a change in atmospheric circulation patterns caused the decrease in low cloud cover? In that case, warming would be the �effect�, rather than the �cause�. And as we shall see, this can give the illusion of positive feedback � even when negative feedback really exists. ***********************
Recap: Decreased "low cloud cover" lets more sunlight in, which -- if caused by initial warming -- would be a positive feedback. If, however, the decreased low cloud cover is what it is that initiated the warming in the first place, then feedback "looks" positive, even if it is not.
*********************** For instance, if the Earth warms by 1 deg C and our satellites measure only 1 watt per square meter of extra radiant energy being given off, since that is less than the magic 3.3 value we might be tempted to say that strong positive feedback is the cause. But this assumes the change in radiant energy is the RESULT of the warming. ***********************
Fun Fact: Getting only 1.0 Watts per square meter per degree Celsius temperature increase could disprove all IPCC climate models, if the warming was actually a result of the change in the radiant energy (rather than the cause of that change).
Ed
Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/satellite-and-climate-model-evidence/ (Edited by Ed Thompson on 7/31, 3:40pm)
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