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Friday, January 13, 2012 - 7:48pmSanction this postReply
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According to this website:

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

Our Debt-to-GDP is already over 90%, so that begs the question: If you take debt that is standardized to income -- so that it is comparable between countries -- then why wouldn't Standard & Poor's put our credit rating down lower than Austria's (lower than "AA")?

Ed


Post 1

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 5:21amSanction this postReply
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S&P did the same to France and downgraded some other countries, too (link). Anyway, the ratings aren't based on merely one number, and they are forward-looking.
(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 1/14, 10:02am)


Post 2

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 8:41amSanction this postReply
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Merlin,

Your link doesn't work. It brings me back to this page.

Ed

p.s. Which is funny (ironic), considering how you just alerted me to the same thing regarding my article submission.

:-)


Post 3

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 8:45amSanction this postReply
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Merlin,
Anyway, the ratings aren't based on merely one number, and they are forward-looking.
Okay, but what's to say that this isn't just a bunch of official hand-waving and people saying things like: "Ohhh, we expect really big things to come from the US. Ooooh, we expect great wealth and fortune."? I guess I'm asking for private information. I am asking for the objective metric -- the official algorithm -- that Standard & Poor's uses in order to grade the credit rating of a country. Perhaps I am asking for too much.

Ed


Post 4

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 10:18amSanction this postReply
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Ed,

I fixed the link in post 1. Many other webpages report the same thing.

Yes, I'm confident S&P's rating is based on its proprietary model and S&P won't disclose the model's algorithm.  One difference between the USA and Austria that the model might recognize is currency. The US dollar still dominates globally and Austria can't inflate the Euro all by itself.


Post 5

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 10:50amSanction this postReply
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Thanks for explaining that, Merlin.

Ed


Post 6

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 11:13amSanction this postReply
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Europe, Germany in particular, has experienced hyperinflation within living memory. Because of that, they are far more reluctant to risk that than our Bernanke unit is.

I'm not so sure the European governments are making the decisions, but rather that the governments are happy to allow the central bankers to fix it and that's the way it will stay till they can't fix it. The banks will (and have been, I suspect) feeding lines and suggestions to the politicians, who will be frightened enough to listen to them, and pretend they are in charge, till they no longer have what can be imagined as workable solutions being given to them. And I'd guess those bankers are still hoping for some help from the IMF, World Bank, and the Fed.

They can modify the EU, dropping those countries that are exerting the most downward drag, or they can break it up altogether, or they can start printing Euros and/or move much more power to Brussels to be able to coerce the troubled countries into adopting hard-line austerity measures.

Over there the left-right political spectrum is different from ours. The left is closer to outright socialism and the right is not like ours at all. It is nationalism and tends towards strong-man fascism.

Post 7

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 11:16amSanction this postReply
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Merlin:

Europe, with the possible exception of Germany, is outracing us to the bottom, which by comparison, makes the US race to the bottom seem not quite as bad.

This is different than cheering "We're #1!"

The 'good news' of our relative rating (well -- the relative decrease in the rate of increase in the free fall of our respective ratings) is like cheering "We're #2...in a global welfare state race to the bottom!"




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Post 8

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 11:29amSanction this postReply
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Steve/Merlin:

In the past decade or so, Germany's 'Agenda 2010' was a relative backing off of their welfare state, a more conservative lean to their direction. It was Germany's first move towards government 'austerity,' and was started in 2003.

We don't hear a lot about it in the Western press for some reason. (Ha!)

Instead, what we hear about is reference to Germany's latestround of governmental trimming/austerity as, quote, "unprecedented" -- as if Agenda 2010 never happened! Much less JUST HAPPENED.

What worked for Germany in the past (2003-2010, a relative cutback in the size of their governmental growth which served them well in the recent global financial crisis) is being tried again in Germany.

Germany is doubling down on Agenda 2010.

There is a reason that the American press largely ignores what has happened in Germany in the last 10 years or so; Germany is backing away from classic European style socialism, and the more they do, the better they weather the local storm in Europe.

Germany and the US are both moving as well as heading in opposite directions, and the less said about modern German economies and unemployment during the global financial crisis, the better for America's latest sellers of slop.

Not much mention of the move towards liberalization quietly happening in Sweden, either.

I wonder why not?



Agenda 2010: "By 2011, unemployment had fallen from its 10% average of the mid-decade to around 7%, its lowest since the early 1990s"

This is during the period of the latest global financial crisis...between 2005 and 2011.

What did Germany do in Agenda 2010?

The steps to be taken include tax cuts (such as a 25% reduction in the basic rate of income tax) as well as big cuts in the cost absorption for medical treatment and drastic cuts in pension benefits and in unemployment benefits alike. In that, the programme closely resembles similar measures taken earlier in the USA (Reaganomics) and the UK (Thatcherism)[citation needed]. Those measures are also being proposed in accordance with the market liberal approach of the EU's Lisbon Strategy. The name Agenda 2010 itself is a reference to the Lisbon Strategy's 2010 deadline.

A series of changes in the labour market known as Hartz I - IV started in 2003 and the last step, Hartz IV, came into effect on January 1, 2005. These changes affected unemployment benefits and job centres in Germany, and the very nature of the German system of social security.



And, most importantly: Germany is presently doubling down.






(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 1/14, 11:38am)


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Post 9

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 11:44amSanction this postReply
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Reporting on the facts of the relative health of Germany during the current global economic recession would be like reporting on the fact that there have been no mid altitude troposphere warming signatures found in two independent sets of measurements -- radiosonde/weather balloons and satellite sounder data -- as demanded by the very CO2 climate models that form the foundation of the entire MMGW religion.

It would be heresy, and that just isn't done in church.



Post 10

Saturday, January 14, 2012 - 3:20pmSanction this postReply
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Great posts on Germany, Fred.

Ed


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Post 11

Sunday, January 15, 2012 - 5:49amSanction this postReply
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I don't know all that S&P considers when it rates a country's debt, but suspect it includes interest rates and maturity distribution, and how that compares to projected deficits. This site says Austria's maturity distribution is much longer than the USA's, which likely means a significantly higher average interest rate. This site shows a recent interest rate on Austria's 10-year debt is 3.10%, versus the USA's 1.89% (link). The latter link also shows much lower interest rates for shorter maturities. I didn't find rates on shorter-term Austrian debt.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 1/15, 6:02am)


Post 12

Saturday, March 10, 2012 - 2:02pmSanction this postReply
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In another thread (which I cannot find now), I mentioned that it might be helpful to learn about the austerity imposed onto Greece. I said that the imposed austerity might serve as a framework through which we might save our own country. On NPR, I heard 2 things about recent Greek austerity measures:

1) an across-the-board cut in government spending (by 50%!)
2) a 20% cut in the minimum wage

Now, that is all I know so far, but it is a good start. If it works in Greece, then the argument can be made -- an argument not just based on a first principles philosophical understanding, but on empirical findings to boot -- that we should do the same thing here. It'd be so cool if we did just these 2 things. There'd be so much improvement.

Ed


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Post 13

Saturday, March 10, 2012 - 5:16pmSanction this postReply
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Years ago in Alberta the leader of the PC party said he was going to cut healthcare,cut education, and cut welfare in order to balance the budget andd at the same time cut taxes! He got elected and did exactly what he said. Needless to say he was Not popular with those on welfare as he cut their benefits in half. They cried and called him heartless his reply? " You don't like it? Get a bloody job or move!". Two years later Alberta not only was out of debt but was the ONLY province in the entire COUNTRY that was in the black despite huge transfer payments to the federal cash cow which of course went to pay for the losers that moved out of alberta to pay for their welfare there.
Many lessons on good government could be learned from good ole "King Ralph" as we affectionately called him regardless of what country one lives in. At one point in time he even gave every single person in Alberta a cheque for 400.00 as a royalty for gas and oil profits. Within one year of retiring Ed Stelmach pretty much fuxored everything Ralph did. Now he is gone too and even though Alberta brought in over 40billion in royalties in 2011 stupid bitch Allison Redford put out a new budget to make "everyone happy" and still could not balance the budget racking up a deficit of 800 million. Hopefully her days are numbered.

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