| | Jules,
Welcome to RoR. Others have already commented about how unimportant it likely is for us to worry about running out of oil (because scarcity increases price, which increases innovation -- with the market solving the problem). Perhaps you are unconvinced because these are abstract (philosophical) arguments dealing with how markets function. Another way to discuss this with you would be to use concrete (encyclopedic) facts.
If you go to the "peak oil" page on Wikipedia, you will find that world demand for oil may go up to 118 million barrels per day in the next 20 years:
World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030 (118 million barrels per day (18.8×10^6 m3/d) from 86 million barrels (13.7×10^6 m3) 118 million barrels per day sounds like a lot. It sounds like enough to make us run out of oil in a few decades. But that is not the case. Let's assume that oil demand actually goes up much farther than this. Let's say it goes to 150 million barrels per day before the demand curve levels off. If you go to the "oil shale" page on Wikipedia, you will find that there's a generous supply of this 'somewhat-harder-to-refine' oil -- enough to supply us our liberal amount of 150 million barrels per day for 20,000 days (55 years):
A 2005 estimate set the total world resources of oil shale at 411 gigatons — enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion barrels (520 km3) of shale oil
So, let's pessimistically say that for some reason we are unable to innovate to wean off of oil at all and are also unable to innovate to continue to find regular oil reserves on earth. What do we do about that? Develop shale. What about in a century or so, when we get low on shale?
Well, in a century, technology will be so advanced that oil will go the way of the steam engine. Now, imagine early American settlers getting together to worry about the prospect of running out of steam. Sounds silly, from our standpoint as their descendents -- with all of our oil refineries, and coal mines, and nuclear power plants, etc.
If you become convinced of mankind's ability to use technological progress to improve his lot on earth, then you will not be so worried -- as if you were an early settler worrying about running out of steam.
Ed
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