| | Fred,
Not uniformly, and not in every context. But that variability can be ...modeled.
Same actors, same events, same contexts,... different histories, possibly different choices/actions.
I learned this recently the hard way. For instance, I have recently acquired software which can be utilized to model up to 4900 actor-agents for 50+ generations in a spatial, evolutionary, agent-based economic game. Much to my chagrin, when I tweak the pay-off variables (in order to represent abstract things like "capitalism", "communism", etc.) I don't get just one outcome, but a disturbing range of outcomes.
In spatial games, your neighbors matter. Your neighbors (8 neighbors in a 9-square grid) are the ones with whom you interact, and they can sometimes make or break you. There is only something like a 99.9% chance that choosing a perfect strategy will lead to a perfect outcome -- and this 99.9% chance is taken 4900 times independently. A tenth of a percent isn't really that far off the mark of perfection, but with 4900 independent chances to err, you can still end up with some modest outcome variation.
I guess I'm just initially frustrated that the empirical validation of abstract philosophical truths can be messy, that's all. Things are so much more beautiful when viewed from my armchair. I will continue with the empirics, however -- though I do not plan to ever let go of the soul-nourishing, inspirational beauty of correct ideas during this process.
Ed
(Edited by Ed Thompson on 6/08, 1:17pm)
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