| | Some numbers...
Average yearly income of the lowest 55% income households in the US: $25,000 (2005). Public school college tuition for 4 years is $7,020 (2009). Lets say that for the vast majority of cases, people who use other people's stolen money for education do not know what to learn, choose poor courses, and do not become more productive from the education.
Given the above and the 20 year plan: A four year college is $7,020 * 4 = $28,080. To be able to pay this amount back, a person must make at least $28,080 / 20 * 10 = $14,040 per year. Looking at the chart at wikipedia, about 13% of people make up to $14,040 per year. On average, over 20 years, these people can only be expected to pay back half of the loans (income levels are pretty linear from 0 to $14,040 for the 0th to 13th percentile, integrate half the area under the triangle). So if only half of the loans are paid back over 20 years by 13% of the population, that is (1/2) * ($28,080 / 20) * (13% of 300,000,000) = $27.4 billion dollars never repaid.
Given the above and the 10 year plan: A four year college is $7,020 * 4 = $28,080. To be able to pay this amount back, a person must make at least $28,080 / 10 * 10 = $28,080 per year. Looking at the chart at wikipedia, about 29.4% of people make up to $28,080 per year. On average, over 10 years, these people can only pay back half of the loans (income levels are prety linear from 0 to $28,080 for the 0th to 30th percentile, integrate half of the area under the triangle). So if only half of the loans are paid back over 10 years by 29.4% of the population, that is (1/2) * ($28,080 / 10) * (29.4% of 300,000,000) = $123.8 billion dollars never repaid.
Notes: - Due to wild inflation, people will actually have much higher incomes in the future and be more able to pay the loans back with the funny money. - Fortunately not everyone in the lower 29.4% income percentile will be doing the 4 year college 10 year college payback plan, nor the 4 year college 20 year college plan.
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