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Post 60

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 5:36amSanction this postReply
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Because we can be more certain of some things than others, it doesn't mean we can be certain of everything that is supported with inductive reasoning, experience.
So, Ed -

Is Nick saying we should live in perpetual doubt? I know that Nick lives somewhere, but I'm oblivious of the specific place. Does that mean I can't be 100% certain Nick exists?

Nick's focus on uncertainty is curious to me, because I don't see that state as having any positive impact on human existence, or as an important component to human life.  Nick seems to hold uncertainty as primary to human existence, even though he hasn't explicitly said so.  He appears to be certain uncertainty is primary to human existence. Is that a fair assessment?

You appear to hold certainty as primary (how else could human beings survive except through what he knows for certain?).

Does that about sum it up?  Would it be possible to outline a motive as to why uncertainty would hold an appeal as primary, even though it does little to forward human life?


Post 61

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 6:31amSanction this postReply
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Would it not then allow an evasion of self-responsibility?

Post 62

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 10:01amSanction this postReply
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Is Nick saying we should live in perpetual doubt? I know that Nick lives somewhere, but I'm oblivious of the specific place. Does that mean I can't be 100% certain Nick exists?
Teresa, if you can't be 100% certain of something, it doesn't mean you have to be 100% in doubt about everything. You can have a sufficiently high degree of certainty about many things and get along well in life. It's good, though, to keep in mind that some of the things about which you are certain could be wrong. It's hard to learn anythng new if you think you already know 100% about everything.


Nick's focus on uncertainty is curious to me, because I don't see that state as having any positive impact on human existence, or as an important component to human life.  Nick seems to hold uncertainty as primary to human existence, even though he hasn't explicitly said so.  He appears to be certain uncertainty is primary to human existence. Is that a fair assessment?
There are paradoxes, to be sure. However, uncertainty can be a positive inlfuence for learning. Look at you. Would you be curious about my uncertainty if you were certain that you understood it perfectly? Uncertainty does lead to questioning and investigation and learning. Too much certainty is like unquestioning faith. It could lead to bigotry. 


You appear to hold certainty as primary (how else could human beings survive except through what he knows for certain?).
One could be 99% certain. One can take risks. Gee, life would be dull if we new everything with 100% certainty.


Does that about sum it up?  Would it be possible to outline a motive as to why uncertainty would hold an appeal as primary, even though it does little to forward human life?

You don't sound very certain that this sums it up. If you are certain that it is not possible to outline a motive as to why uncertainty would hold as a primary, why would you ask about it? You seem certain that uncertanty does little to forward human life. Does it do anything? Why say little? Are you hedging your bets? Are you evading responsibility for saying everything is all or nothing, that there are no shades of gray or degrees of certainty?

BTW, Teresa, asking Ed about my views is not the most certain way to get accuracy. Ed has even admitted to being wrong before.

bis bald,

Nick

 



Post 63

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 11:46amSanction this postReply
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Teresa, if you can't be 100% certain of something, it doesn't mean you have to be 100% in doubt about everything.
Nick,

I'm trying to understand why uncertainty to any degree matters at all.  It's not like one can build anything on a void, so why does it matter?


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Post 64

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 1:25pmSanction this postReply
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Teresa,
So, Ed -

Is Nick saying we should live in perpetual doubt?
Yes.

Ed


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Post 65

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 1:26pmSanction this postReply
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Rev',
Would it not then allow an evasion of self-responsibility?
Yes.

Ed


Post 66

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 2:09pmSanction this postReply
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I'm trying to understand why uncertainty to any degree matters at all.  It's not like one can build anything on a void, so why does it matter?

If you are certain it doesn't matter at all, why try to understand why it does?

Without some uncertainty, one wouldn't be motivated to build anything, as far as learning is concerned.

bis bald,

Nick



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Post 67

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 6:19pmSanction this postReply
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If you are certain it doesn't matter at all, why try to understand why it does?
Not why "it" does, why _you_ think "it" does!

Without some uncertainty, one wouldn't be motivated to build anything, as far as learning is concerned.
But, that doesn't make any sense at all. How can I build on something I can't be certain of?  I'd have to be certain about some aspect first, before I could question, or build further. I can't question and gain new knowledge from utter uncertainty. I wouldn't even know what questions to ask unless there were some level of certainty involved with my query.   

We didn't get from drawing on cave walls to shooting golf balls on the moon by being chronically, or even marginally uncertain, Nick.

Uncertainty is something to overcome, not something to embrace.



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Post 68

Thursday, August 10, 2006 - 6:59pmSanction this postReply
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But, that doesn't make any sense at all. How can I build on something I can't be certain of? 

 

Why would you want to if you are certain of it already?

 

I'd have to be certain about some aspect first, before I could question, or build further.

 

You could have a degree of certainty which you would want to increase or verify.

 

 

I can't question and gain new knowledge from utter uncertainty.

 

Who said anything about utter uncertainty? This seems to be a straw man being pushed on me. If you go back and reread the first sentence I posted to you, it says, “Teresa, if you can't be 100% certain of something, it doesn't mean you have to be 100% in doubt about everything.” Are you having trouble understanding this?

 

I wouldn't even know what questions to ask unless there were some level of certainty involved with my query.

 

Yes, you would need some level of certainty and some level of uncertainty. Without the uncertainty, you would never query.  


We didn't get from drawing on cave walls to shooting golf balls on the moon by being chronically, or even marginally uncertain, Nick.

 

Yes we did. If we would have been certain that cave wall drawings were good enough, we wouldn’t have advanced beyond them, Teresa.


Uncertainty is something to overcome, not something to embrace.

 

Too much certainty leads to bigotry and unquestioning faith, which lead to dark ages, and that is something to overcome.

 

Bis bald,

 

Nick


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Post 69

Friday, August 11, 2006 - 8:06pmSanction this postReply
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Good rebuttal, Teresa.

Ed
[certainty is a necessary starting point for persisting progress)

Post 70

Friday, August 11, 2006 - 9:15pmSanction this postReply
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certainty is a necessary starting point for persisting progress

Nope, certainty is something to pursue, but it wouldn't be pursued without uncertainty.

bis bald,

Nick


Post 71

Friday, August 11, 2006 - 9:37pmSanction this postReply
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Nick, ignore the sanction points I just gave you in error. I meant to hit the "Reply" button.

 If we would have been certain that cave wall drawings were good enough, we wouldn’t have advanced beyond them,
Some cultures indeed haven't advanced beyond them, but I don't think certainty is to blame. I think it's fear of certainty, or an embrace of uncertainty, or sheer ignorance, or simply no motivation to look for more. I don't know.
Why do some cultures still practice the same rituals over and over, when 9 times out of 10, the result is never the one desired? Clearly these people can't be certain the outcomes will be what they want, yet they continue to practice the same ritual, the same way, year after year, for hundreds and thousands of years. They're terrified to make a single change.

Does that sound like certainty? It doesn't to me. Unless there's some kind of argument like "certain of the uncertain," which just sounds silly.  

 Yes, you would need some level of certainty and some level of uncertainty. Without the uncertainty, you would never query. 
The thing is, I don't think "uncertainty" is the lynchpin to greater learning or progress. Wanting to discover and learn more is born from certainty. That's my point. And I see that you don't entirely disagree with that, which is good.

  Too much certainty leads to bigotry and unquestioning faith, which lead to dark ages, and that is something to overcome.
As my example of  jungle tribes tried to illustrate, uncertainty is the culprit for those outcomes.  Claiming certainty doesn't make it so.

Claiming certainty of the uncertain sounds hopelessly ambiguous and leads no where.    

“Teresa, if you can't be 100% certain of something, it doesn't mean you have to be 100% in doubt about everything.”

Damn, Nick! Make up your mind! To what degree is certainty wrong and uncertainty right?

 


 


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Post 72

Friday, August 11, 2006 - 11:22pmSanction this postReply
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Nick, ignore the sanction points I just gave you in error. I meant to hit the "Reply" button.

It’s a wonder I get sanction points at all. Sometimes, I’m proud of them. However, there are several really good posts down below which have no sanction points. So, they can’t really mean all that much.

Some cultures indeed haven't advanced beyond them, but I don't think certainty is to blame. I think it's fear of certainty, or an embrace of uncertainty, or sheer ignorance, or simply no motivation to look for more. I don't know.

It could be certainty that their level of advancement is good enough. As you say, you don’t know. It’s uncertainty that usually motives people to become more certain. When people are certain they already know something, it’s hard to teach it to them. When they are uncertain, they are insecure and eager to learn.


 

Why do some cultures still practice the same rituals over and over, when 9 times out of 10, the result is never the one desired? Clearly these people can't be certain the outcomes will be what they want, yet they continue to practice the same ritual, the same way, year after year, for hundreds and thousands of years. They're terrified to make a single change.


 

We have our own rituals. Have you read The Lottery, by Shirley Jackson? Some people are having problems adjusting to change. They want to smoke in buildings which now prohibit smoking. They don’t want to separate their trash and recycle. They don’t want to buckle their seatbelts. They don’t want to carpool. There is some security, certainty, in doing things as they have always been done, and there is insecurity, uncertainty, with making changes.

Does that sound like certainty? It doesn't to me. Unless there's some kind of argument like "certain of the uncertain," which just sounds silly.  

There is certainty in tradition, in ceremony, in ritual, in habitual behavior. Learning something new is scary sometimes. People resist change. It is taking a chance.

The thing is, I don't think "uncertainty" is the lynchpin to greater learning or progress. Wanting to discover and learn more is born from certainty. That's my point. And I see that you don't entirely disagree with that, which is good.

I think uncertainty motivates the pursuit of certainty. When people think they are certain, they stop looking for answers. They become satisfied with their self-deceptions. That is why religious fundamentalism led to the dark ages.

    

“Teresa, if you can't be 100% certain of something, it doesn't mean you have to be 100% in doubt about everything.”


Damn, Nick! Make up your mind! To what degree is certainty wrong and uncertainty right?

First, I never changed my mind in this thread. I never said that simply because we can’t be 100% certain of everything, we have to be 100% uncertain of everything. This is your reading comprehension problem.

 

Second, do you have a problem living with uncertainty? I don’t know exactly to what degree some things are right or wrong. I am more certain of some things than I am of others, but I don’t pretend to have all the answers. And, there are shades of gray. This doesn’t paralyze me or keep me from making decisions. It just makes life more exciting for me. I am still curious about things I don’t know, and I am still learning and becoming more certain. I think this makes me closer to the truth, in some instances, than those who are certain about that which isn’t true.

 

bis bald,

 

Nick 

 






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Post 73

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 5:22amSanction this postReply
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Hi Nick

I agree with the usefulness of uncertainty.  Having worked with traditional communities; I support your notion that certainty keeps individuals in the dark ages. Compelling information is needed to make the ignorant question their premises, become more individualistic and then, accepting of change.  True believers won't be moved.  I had a grandmother who was one.  She was always telling me that I had funny ideas.

Those who are certain in their certainty, can cross their arms against their chest for all times.  I know what I know, and I am what I am.  See, I'm stamping my foot as well; doesn't that convince you? 

As one who is mostly uncertain, I accept the vulnerability of living by the seat of my pants. There's good everywhere, why restrict myself by trying to achieve certainty before acting?  I, however am not a research scientist or a computer programmer; or even a tool maker where 100% certainty  and close variances are necessary, on the job. In those controlled environments 100% certainty may be a possibility, and a given.

Out in the messy world of heterogenious humanity; uncertainty rules.  Medical malpractice law has come to accept the fallacy that physicians and surgeons should possess certainty; and never have a bad outcome. Gross negligence is not uncertainty.  Uncertainty is a product of honesty, I'd say.  And confidence____ some are afraid to say, "I don't know"     I've never understood that.  Wouldn't it be the first step towards enlightenment?  Perhaps I do know..... Well, maybe not.   In the meantime, life is going on .  When and for whom does it matter?  It's our old friend Context, always insisting on being invited to every party. 

Ignorance can only be overcome by solving the problem of cognitive dissonance.  Cognitive dissonance cannot exert itself in a closed certain mind.

Sharon

Post 74

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 8:11amSanction this postReply
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Sharon, it is refreashing to meet someone who agrees with me a little. Yes, scentific method begins with a problem, not a certainty. It seeks certainty and learns by trial and error. Doctors diagnose, prescribe, and observe to see if their treatment works. They often agonize over their decisions, and, sometimes, they are wrong. (I've been watching House.) I've said before, we can use our best truth tests but keep in mind that we could still be dead wrong, and, in that, we could be right.

This doesn't mean, though, that we have to be wishy-washy and indecisive about everything. We can have confidence in ourselves. We can take stands and support what we think is right and denounce what we think is wrong. We can represent a point of view. However, we have to take responsibility for it. We don't want to mess up other people's lives if we are wrong. We can think for ourselves and encourage others to do the same.

Ayn Rand's heros were confident individuals who fought their way to success against certainty of establshed views in society. Howard Roark stuck with his ideas of how buildings ought to be designed and how he wanted to make his mark. He was an innovator.

Still, another heroic individual in world history is Socrates. Here is an excerpt from one of my adaptations of Plato's dialogues:

  
Later, when Socrates contemplated his impressions of Gorgias and Protagoras, he could not help but think of Meno, a student of Gorgias. Of the three; Protagoras, Gorgias, and Meno; Meno was the least pretentious. However, Socrates could recognize Meno was closer to knowledge and truth than either Gorgias or Protagoras. Meno admitted he was confused, and this was something the others could not do. Socrates could see that Meno, in his confused state, would be anxious to find more satisfying answers. Gorgias and Protagoras were also confused, but they did not wish to admit, even to themselves, that they were confused. They felt they were wise, and they did not feel prompted to search for better answers. Meno knew he was not wise, and this made him more an equal to Socrates than either Gorgias or Protagoras.
http://www.geocities.com/nickotani/writings/socrates1.html?200612

Because people want certainty so much, they sometimes subjugate theselves to
God or society or dogma, something from which they can get certainty, something artificial which gives them security. They lean on crutches, depend on training wheels and safety nets. It takes courage to stand alone in the middle of all this absurdity. Yet, knowing that one is alone, that God, tradition, and perhaps even logic is a crutch, sometimes gives us that courage.

bis bald,

Nick


Post 75

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 9:36amSanction this postReply
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Nick,

Socrates eh?

We gadflies have to watch it.  lol  You know what happened to S.  Has anyone charged you with corruption?

Sh.

Post 76

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 10:53amSanction this postReply
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We gadflies have to watch it.  lol  You know what happened to S.  Has anyone charged you with corruption?
It happens all the time. I usually get banned from religious boards, but one of my posts got deleted from the OL. MSK wants to keep his flock protected.

I was concerned that you might be putting yourself in danger by aligning yourself with me. Watch your back!

bis bald,

Nick


Post 77

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 11:08amSanction this postReply
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Alignment is too confrontational, Nick.  Doesn't it presume a foe?

Isn't common ground the goal we seek.  In a democratic society, free thinkers shouldn't need allies. Agreement from time to time is enough for me.  I may agree today; but tomorrow brings a whole new context.

Sh.

Post 78

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 5:16pmSanction this postReply
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Isn't common ground the goal we seek.  In a democratic society, free thinkers shouldn't need allies. Agreement from time to time is enough for me.  I may agree today; but tomorrow brings a whole new context.


That's true. Things are still in the process of becoming, or, as Heraclitus said, "One can't step twice into the same river."

bis bald,

Nick


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Post 79

Saturday, August 12, 2006 - 7:48pmSanction this postReply
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Nicki,

========================
Nope, certainty is something to pursue, but it wouldn't be pursued without uncertainty.
========================

I get the idea that uncertainty is what it is that makes certainty logically possible in the first place (ie. it's only because we CAN be uncertain about some things -- that certainty "matters" about some matters).

But, in order for progress to ensue (like the kind of progress we've experienced in light bulb technology -- where we can now light a room for less than a tenth of the price of the past), we require a starting point.

Starting points must be certain -- we have to "know" (not merely "believe") what it takes to light a room; before we can discover how to light it with the same or greater lumens, at the same or better cost. It has to be known (not merely believed) what it costs to light a room, before we can know if we have made the kind of progress that we have.

Nickster, are you saying that we can't be "sure" that we can light a room for a tenth of the cost as a century ago?

Ed




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