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Saturday, August 11, 2012 - 9:59amSanction this postReply
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Here is the link to the abstract of the article:

Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors?

[A free full-text copy of the study is available to those who sign-up with Science (AAAS) at the link in the upper-right.]

What the researcher (Samuel Bowles) discovered is that altruism is linked to war. If you don't have much war, then you cannot have much altruism, either. This is because altruism is unproductive -- it is about social justice or "fairness" rather than something that puts food on the table. In a telling display of this, Bowles compares 3 hunter-gatherer groups in Australia:

1) the Murngin
2) the Tiwi
3) the Anbara

The Murngin are perpetual warriors and are able to support a maximum of 20.7% altruism. The Tiwi are more peaceful (can support up to 10% altruism), and the Anbara are the most peaceful (can support up to 4.5% altruism). One upshot is that if you want what Obama wants -- i.e., lots of altruism -- then we are going to have to go to war with the rest of the world. Another is the aggregate tax rate.

An aggregate tax rate is an indication of altruism -- because so very often the money is taken from you to pay for things you don't believe in. If we were a nation in constant war, then an aggregate tax rate of 20.7% might be justified somehow. If we were a peaceful nation, even an aggregate tax rate of 5% would be potentially unjustifiable. Note: This is based on empirics rather than on an a priori moral argument. I prefer the moral argument, but the scientific argument against altruism is mounting.

Ed


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Saturday, August 11, 2012 - 8:34pmSanction this postReply
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How does they measure the % of altruism

Post 2

Saturday, August 11, 2012 - 10:46pmSanction this postReply
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Michael,

The short answer is that it's a fitness cost in survival dynamics (an example of 100% altruism would be donating your body to scientists or cannibals, immediately ending your life). The long answer (below) is more revealing. In fact, it's too revealing (it shows I made a big mistake)! Oops!

:-)

Samuel Bowles is a Game Theory researcher attempting to replicate real-life dynamics in the form of statistical outcome models -- and running these dynamics to discover what kind of outcomes you get. Here is a string of telling quotes from the article which work to illustrate what he did, how he did it, and what he found:

I use a variant of these models along with a new set of empirical estimates of the extent of war among both prehistoric and historic hunter-gatherers to derive an explicit measure of the importance of warfare in the evolution of human social behavior. This measure is the maximum degree of altruistic behavior—namely c*, the greatest cost borne by individuals in order to benefit fellow group members—that could have proliferated given the empirically likely extent of warfare during the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene. ...

For simplicity, I represent the altruistic behavior in question as the expression of a single allele and let individuals reproduce asexually; the model is readily extended to any form of vertical transmission, including cultural. ...

What is the maximum cost of altruism (c*) such that the group benefits would offset the within-group selection pressures against the altruists? ...

... note that c* = 0.03, for example, is a quite substantial cost, one that in the absence of intergroup competition would lead the fraction of altruists in a group to fall from 0.9 to 0.1 in just 150 generations. An illustration more directly related to the question of warfare is the following. Suppose that in every generation, a group is engaged in a war with probability ê = 2ä and that an altruistic "warrior" will die with certainty in a lost war and with probability 0.20 in a war in which the group prevails, while nonaltruistic members also die with certainty in lost wars but do not die in won wars. (These mortality assumptions are extremely unfavorable for the altruists.) Assuming the altruists have no reproductive advantages during peacetime, then c = 0.2ä ...

... if groups were as differentiated as these populations and as warlike as the Murngin, between-group competition could overcome very strong within-group selection against altruistic behavior. Even for groups similar to the more peaceful Anbara, quite costly forms of altruism could proliferate by this mechanism (c* = 0.029).

Largest cost (c*) for an altruistic trait to proliferate given estimates of genetic differentiation and mortality in intergroup hostilities (ä) among three Arnhem Land, Australian hunter-gatherer populations. ...
Now, where is my mistake? I used values for the variable for intergroup hostilities/mortalities (ä) in place of values for the variable for altruism (c), or maximal cost of altruism (c*). What the study found is more dire than I originally reported, as even more than about a population-wide scale of altruism of 7% is existentially unsustainable (see below). The 0.207 number (20.7%) is the fraction of Murngin mortality due to wars. If you are born a Murngin, and you die at some point, then there is a 20.7% chance that the reason you die is from a mortal wound in war. Like I said before, these guys are real scrappers.

:-)

Even being at war all the time however, would not sustain population-scale altruism (c) of more than about 7% (c* = 0.07). During peacetime, you cannot sustain even 3% altruism on a population-scale (c* = 0.03). Let's take a sentence from above to illustrate this:
... c* = 0.03, for example, is a quite substantial cost, one that in the absence of intergroup competition would lead the fraction of altruists in a group to fall from 0.9 to 0.1 in just 150 generations.
What this sentence says is that if 90% of Americans were 3% altruistic then, in 150 generations, 80% of them would go extinct (leaving 10% of us stubbornly practicing 3% altruism). My contention is that if you keep running the experiment -- if you take it for longer than 150 generations -- then even more altruists would die off. This is because altruism, even just 3% altruism, is unproductive.

The rub is that Obama wants us to practice way more than just 3% altruism (e.g., sacrificing 3% of our personal production or earnings for causes in which we may not believe). He wants us to go ahead and to try to practice altruism at a rate that is many times higher than that. But as scientific evidence suggests, that's a prescription for collapsing the entire country.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 8/11, 11:14pm)


Post 3

Sunday, August 12, 2012 - 7:14amSanction this postReply
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Again, Jane Jacobs in Systems of Survival points out that the Warrior or Guardian morality includes largess - the distribution of booty.  So, that validates the assumptions here, that to give away goods, you must steal them from others.

I found the 21% number attractive, also.  One of my criminology professors, Liqun Cao, often said that 20%of the goods in society have no clear title.  We tolerate a level of thievery simply because we have the abundance to do so.


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Sunday, August 12, 2012 - 7:47amSanction this postReply
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Michael,

You've shown how I could have made my mistake -- by thinking that 21% is attractive (because 20% of all goods in most societies don't have official titles of ownership). That's fine and dandy. But the highest amount of altruism possible, under the greatest frequency of warfare (because altruism begets warfare), was 13.3% in a warrior band of 26 people. If you increase the number of people in your tribe or your band then the highest amount of sustainable altruism drops to 7%. That's a substantial difference.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 8/12, 7:49am)


Post 5

Monday, August 13, 2012 - 7:42pmSanction this postReply
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... and, converting the numbers into aggregate tax rates, this discovery would mean that -- utilitarianly-speaking -- the highest aggregate tax rates for humans on earth should be:

13.3% for isolated, warrior gangs
7% for warrior societies
3% for peaceful societies

That, and not more than that, is what is sustainable. A society which exceeds these limits will eventually collapse -- though it may take 100 generations. This is the limit of forced taxation. Alternative methods of funding government (e.g., user fees) would not necessarily follow the same dynamics and may, therefore, continually exceed these limits. For example, it's still possible to have a sustainable society where user fees, amounting to 15% of all generated wealth, end up paying for the government -- even if it is impossible to have a sustainable society where forced taxation, amounting to 15% of all generated wealth, does the same thing.

That's because user fees are not altruistic in the sense that forced taxation is.

Ed 



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Post 6

Tuesday, August 14, 2012 - 5:52amSanction this postReply
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Ed, the coin has two sides.  The forced taxation and warfare - looting your neighbors at home and abroad - is the consequence of following a policy of altruism.  To me, that is the reverse or tails side. The heads side (the obverse) is that the largesse is bad investing.  The booty is given to people who do not use it well.  For one thing, it typically comes in the form of consumables, not capital goods.  In that primitive tribe, the freebies are food and maybe ornament, but not big chunks of chert for knapping axes and points. 

In our society, the largesse that causes taxes and wars takes the form of low interest rates, laws restricting your competitors, leasing public lands, and city bond issues to build stadiums.  I watched an OWS-themed video and one of the protest signs read "My taxes are not venture capital."  That is more cogent than he knew on several levels.

Also, you do acknowledge that controlled altruism could take 100 generations to ruin a society.  That is 3000 years.  We have survived a lot of altruism since recovering from the Bronze Age Collapse. I do point out that the researcher assumed that altruism is inherited in a single allele and that reproduction is asexual. Aside from the fact that you read into this "study" something you already believe, I am not sure what it actually proves. 

The study also seems more to demonstrate under what conditions altruism is an effective group strategy.  That is the purpose of course, survival of the group at the expense of (sacrificed) individuals.
[The study assumes that] "Groups are sufficiently large that the increased probability of group success in conflict that is associated with an additional altruistic member does not compensate the individual for the cost of the behavior in question. Thus, adopting the altruistic behavior decreases the expected fitness of an individual (by comparison to an individual eschewing the behavior) while increasing the expected fitness of other group members. ... This paradoxical role of war arises because, in the absence of within-group positive assortment, altruism will suffer adverse within-group selection. But it might be sustained by the between-group selection pressures that warfare introduces if altruists willingly fight on behalf of others in their group so that otherwise comparable groups with many altruists tend to prevail in intergroup contests.In game theoretic terms, defense or predation is a public good (participating is an n-person prisoner’s dilemma) in which those who participate confer benefits on their fellow group members at a cost to themselves.

"But taking all of the evidence into account, it seems likely that, for many groups and for substantial periods of human prehistory, lethal group conflict may have been frequent enough to support the proliferation of quite costly forms of altruism. This might help explain why altruism often does not extend across group boundaries, and how this kind of “parochial altruism” may have evolved in humans (13) and perhaps even other animals."
Science 324, 1293 (2009); Samuel Bowles. "Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors?"

Another fundamental problem is assuming that the "primitive" people of our time are "like" the hunter-gatherers of the Pleistocene/Holocene. The author, Samuel Bowles, does acknowledge that limitation. No society is truly static. And, perhaps more to the point, as in the case of the Australians, hunter-gatherers are marginalized to the least desirable environments. The world of 10,000 YA was quite a bit different for hunter-gatherers, a vertiable Eden perhaps, hence our myths of that Garden.

In the opening post you wrote:  "If we were a nation in constant war, then an aggregate tax rate of 20.7% might be justified somehow. If we were a peaceful nation, even an aggregate tax rate of 5% would be potentially unjustifiable."
Again, to me, this speaks to the direction of the causal arrow.  Once you malinvest over 5% your only alternative is to take the difference from someone else. That said, though, I agree that the drumbeating and flagwaving of warfare goes to justify the necessary looting required by the 21% altruism rate. After looting the gold here, after eight years of the New Deal, President Roosevelt then had no choice but to loot the UK, Germany, and Japan, though admittedly, they were slim pickings.



Finally, in the opening you also noted: "This is based on empirics rather than on an a priori moral argument. I prefer the moral argument, but the scientific argument against altruism is mounting."
We all have our modes of thought and reality is seamless, so it might not matter ultimately how you approach a problem.  I trust that you agree that the moral argument and the empirical facts must support each other by establishing the same truth.  Personally, a red flag went up for me when I read that. I might agree on an emotional level that I like "theory" more than "facts" because theory explains facts.  Absent the facts, though, you have nothing. 


(Edited by Michael E. Marotta on 8/14, 6:57am)


Post 7

Tuesday, August 14, 2012 - 9:04pmSanction this postReply
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Mike,

That was a post chock-full of good points [bonk]. No qualms here.

Ed


Post 8

Thursday, August 16, 2012 - 12:02pmSanction this postReply
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VERY very interesting...........

Post 9

Thursday, August 16, 2012 - 7:45pmSanction this postReply
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Alright, alright. In order to make it uninteresting to Robert, I have come up with a few qualms.

:-)

Qualm 1
Also, you do acknowledge that controlled altruism could take 100 generations to ruin a society. That is 3000 years. We have survived a lot of altruism since recovering from the Bronze Age Collapse.
Yeah, but you have to keep your sense of proportion. We know from science that altruism is lethal in certain doses -- the highest sustainable dose in (isolated, war-like) humans being 13.3% altruism. But when you look at the numbers for aggregate tax rates and assume that the US is halfway between being peaceful (supports 3% altruism) and warlike (supports 7% altruism) -- then you settle on 5% as being the highest sustainable aggregate tax rate for US citizens. Now, that's the limit. Exceed it, and you will collapse the society -- but the amount by which you exceed it by also matters. If aggregate tax rates in the US were, say, 6% of all generated wealth, then it might take 3000 years before we, as a society, collapse.

But what if aggregate tax rates are actually much higher than 6%? How fast would our collapse come then?

It may be that with an aggregate tax rate of around 50% that you can collapse a society in, say, 80 or 90 years. If that is the case, then we'd be close to collapsing (because our aggregate tax rate has been close to 50% for a couple of decades now). The only way out is to lower the taxes. We can try going to war in Middle East countries, or whatever -- but that will never support altruism higher than about 7% or so. If you have tax rates of 50% or higher, then no amount of war can save you -- all it can do is postpone the inevitable.

Qualm 2
I do point out that the researcher assumed that altruism is inherited in a single allele and that reproduction is asexual. Aside from the fact that you read into this "study" something you already believe, I am not sure what it actually proves.
You left off the end of it, where the researcher said that this assumption covers cultural transmission (which is also asexual, and does not involve genetic recombination) of altruism. The point of making that assumption -- as you have apparently missed it -- is to be able to generalize findings to the real world, a place that likely involves a cultural transmission of altruistic attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors (rather than the genetic transmission of ideas).

Qualm 3
That said, though, I agree that the drumbeating and flagwaving of warfare goes to justify the necessary looting required by the 21% altruism rate.
Here, you failed to take into account my admission and correction of a mistake. The actual limit of sustainable altruism was 13.3%, not 21%. See post 2 for details.

Ed


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