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Post 60

Wednesday, December 12, 2012 - 1:13pmSanction this postReply
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Back to the topic of this thread,

Romney may have dodged a bullet, but the Republicans may still get the blame when the economy kicks the bucket.

If Republicans don't compromise on the this fiscal cliff fiasco, the Progressives will undoubtedly point their finger and say: "See, they only care about the rich, they didn't let us fix the economy!."

If they do compromise, and raise taxes, who will be blamed then? The parties will likely blame one another, but who is really to blame? The answer may be evident to the people on this site, but the vast majority of people won't know.

The wells had been poisoned long ago, and we are seeing the consequences of that poisoning today. The poisoning of the culture, markets, and the minds of men.

Will Americans finally "get it" when the economy crashes; I have my doubts.



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Post 61

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 5:49amSanction this postReply
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Kyle:

You are exactly right, and I don't think that Obama and the left want a deal. What they want is an insurance policy. They want to raise taxes on -everybody-, then cry that it was the GOP who did this, not them. Oh,please, said Brer Rabbit, don't throw us into that Fiscal Cliff briar patch!

The GOP, due to its years of weak intellectual foundation and inconsistencies, its tack of being Democrat-Lite, is so far out on a limb that it can neither keep sawing nor stand still, but that is old news, a done deal.

At this point, the GOP's only play is to give Obama everything he wants, so that Obama and the Reds undeniably wear the coming mess. By negotiating any changes at all, the GOP only provides cover for the inevitable failure of all this too little too late nonsense. "See? The GOP didn't give the POTUS what he wanted and -this- is what happens."

But in fact, it won't matter if they let this crappy thing happen or implement some other crappy do nothing deal; they are rearranging the chairs on the Titanic. They are 30 years past the time when minor tweaks were going to fix this sinking ship of state. All that has been left is the jockeying for position in the wreckage to try and win the post sinking blame game.

And, fact is, given the full blown 24/7/100% propaganda machine pumping up the Left, even if the GOP -does- give Obama everything he wants, they (and their totally ineffective defense of capitalism)will still be blamed for the mess. That is the current play, and I don't see any effective counter-play.

It truly is like watching the Titanic go down, deck by deck.

History, apparently, isn't over, and now we get to witness our little bit of it.

This war started at least 100 years ago. Capitalism declared the war over in 1989, too early. Clinton in 1995 declared 'The Erah of Big Guvmint is Ovah...' and we heard what we wanted to hear, which surely wasn't '...and the Erah of really Gigantic Government is About to Begin.'
(Edited by Fred Bartlett on 12/13, 5:53am)


Post 62

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 6:38amSanction this postReply
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Well..there is option B. Succession
And C Civil war
Or let it ride, crash and burn and probably have civil war, or continue to bend over, take it up the tailpipe and end up with a dictatorship.

Post 63

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 7:16amSanction this postReply
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Fred,

Sad to say, I think you have it exactly right.

The Republicans are squabbling about how to win or least not get hurt too bad in the Fiscal Cliff battle, while Obama and team already own that. They are looking further ahead... plotting for 2014, and a massive media blame-fest resulting in the destruction of the GOP.

Silencing the conservatives will make it easier to complete the transition to socialism, and it will be more fun for them to crush the opposition than it is for a sociopath to torture little animals.

Post 64

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 7:30amSanction this postReply
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Steve:

Here is an area I must -really- rely on your experience and expertise, because I am at a complete loss to understand theories of the human psyche:

a] Do they actually -believe- their approach is going to work in the long run? That is the naive part of me, wanting to believe that they at least believe that, even as I disagree.

b] Or, is their goal the actual destruction of -this- nation and way of life, a kind of nihilism out of which they at least expect a better life to emerge(again, me trying to find sanity in their motivations)? Or...just destruction, total nihilism? And if there is any aspect of this in their motivations, then that is where I am asking you to dig deep, as an explorer in the field of human psyche, to explain that, because I am at a complete loss to see the upside.

On a side note, my son recently graduated from UVA with a double major in economics and psychology. He is working as a media analyst now in Manhattan. He wanted no part of Wall Street, think tanks, academia, politics, or government, so I always thought it was an odd choice of double major, but ... maybe not, when trying to understand the Tribe.

regards,
Fred

Post 65

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 7:51amSanction this postReply
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Steve:

Speaking of 'looking ahead,' you know the recent announcement by the FED of printing money until unemployment goes below 6.5%?

I read today where -their- current prediction is that won't happen until at least mid 2015.

...2009....2010....2011....2012....2013....2014....2015

7 years of the 'Obama Recovery'...assuming this shit actually floats.

At what point will the nation notice that all this 'the economy running' isn't running anything except the economies into the ground and the nation to its knees? This now ENDLESS campaign is being kept afloat by Soviet era propaganda and cheerleading. Unemployment ticks down ... purely because of exhausted folks leaving the job market, and this is lauded as a huge accomplishment of some kind, a feather in the cap of constructivist 'the economy' running.

One thing is evident; the level of broad anger is rising. The current play is in directing that foaming at the mouth anger, and just like in 20's Germany, it's not like all that anger is reasoning out the future. It is just angry, and easily directed and misdirected.

And we all know damn well which side in this battle is actually good at fomenting populist anger.

We are edging closer to Ein Volk...Ein Reich ...Ein Fuhrer with every passing day. Whether it is the Nazi variant of totalitarianism or the Commie variant of totalitarianism or the 'World Aint Seen Nothing Yet Amerikan Variant' of totalitarianism, it is all the same unfettered state madness. And JUST like in pre-Hitler Germany, it was the polite Social Democrats cheering on the complete unfettering of the state.

We've seen this movie before, we know how it ends, and it is never well. Humanity bubbling over, purging itself again in a bloody mess.


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Post 66

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 12:04pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,
a] Do they actually -believe- their approach is going to work in the long run? That is the naive part of me, wanting to believe that they at least believe that, even as I disagree.

b] Or, is their goal the actual destruction of -this- nation and way of life, a kind of nihilism out of which they at least expect a better life to emerge(again, me trying to find sanity in their motivations)? Or...just destruction, total nihilism? And if there is any aspect of this in their motivations, then that is where I am asking you to dig deep, as an explorer in the field of human psyche, to explain that, because I am at a complete loss to see the upside.
The short answer is a combination of "Both" and "It depends." Long answer follows:

Each person is different of course. But they all have some sort of operational theory - that is, some set of expectations and ideas as to where they want to go, and what will take them there. But, they also have a set of emotional responses driven by deeply automated value judgments, defensive reactions, and by their individual sense of life and this is in the mix with the theories - driving them.

It's worthwhile to see theory and emotions separately. Obama, for example, might believe that in the long term, his particular brand of socialism/racialism/neo-anti-colonialism/globalism will 'work' and be "right" - but he can't tell us about this wonderful utopia he is driving towards because "we aren't ready to hear that... yet." And his operational theory is to move towards his goal with some things done in the open, where possible, and other things disguised. And a major part of his plan might be to let the old system implode, to fall apart, and thereby generate the need for repairs and major changes, and when it comes in the form of a major crisis, that will make the change politically easier.

At the same time, he probably has deep-seated hatred for many aspects of America as it was... and still is in some ways. He is probably self-aware on some of his hatreds, and repressing many others. The darker and more nihilistic any aspect of his motivation, the more likely it is repressed, and instead of recognizing it, there will be triggers of rationalized explanations that tie to his theoretical orientation - so he can keep on fooling himself as to the degree he is motivated to destroy rather than create or build.

The rule of thumb would be something like this, "For a given level of general intelligence and education background, the more nihilistic the results of a proposed plan, the more likely the person is driven more by repressed demons and using ideology as a convenient fig-leaf." Narcissism is a defense that encourages a person to see themselves as justified in being an elite. It encourages a person to mentally diminish the importance of others. This makes it easier to envision doing harm to them. It is a general purpose routine for demonizing anyone that might get in the way or just not appreciate them enough.

But all of this wouldn't apply to the more gentle souls who just live in fantasy land.

The fantasy land rule of thumb would be about people who tend to be less successful in hard-ball fields of life (like politics). So, when you see someone who proposes full-blown socialism, or anarchy, or some other total disaster, and isn't very good at practical success in the real world (unless their career is in academia, Hollywood, or they are a perpetual student, or massively underemployed), it is more likely they are not driven as much by anger or hatred, and instead are just living in a world of floating abstractions. They are using ideology to create a make-believe world that comforts them - instead of hoping for a world that will crush the non-believers in painful ways. A much different world.

The mechanism that holds all this craziness, of either kind, together is a form of compartmentalization that permits people to be 'rational' and competent in planning and performing a variety of functions, while keeping other areas hidden from themselves with automatic triggers that feed them the prepackaged arguments and propaganda that is appropriate to the moment and to who they are with. Think of a scientist or engineer who is a deeply religious person and takes much of the mysticism seriously - compartmentalization with automatic shielding via prepackage pseudo-thinking taking the place of actual awareness and sound reasoning.

So, it is like analyzing multiple personalities - each of the layers has a somewhat different motivation and the layers are not unlike an onion. All these things rise up through the layers and funnel into single choices being constantly made.
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I'm not sure what you were getting at when you said, "...I'm at a complete loss to see the upside."
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I applaud your son! That is quite an achievement - graduating with the double major from a good school. Mixing economics and psychology makes perfect sense to me :-) I've always thought that psychology is the one part they left out of all the social sciences. We make choices, and the act of choosing is done in an emotional context. That's motivational psychology. Economics should be about finding the natural laws that allow us to quantify the results of aggregate choosing.

Post 67

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 1:00pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,
We've seen this movie before, we know how it ends, and it is never well. Humanity bubbling over, purging itself again in a bloody mess.
Yes, that's too true, so sad, and frightening. Things don't decline in a nice linear fashion. They begin to accelerate on the way down. Economic realities get recognized by a few players, then more and bigger players, and then suddenly everyone is in a rush to cash out. And as major markets collapse, panic becomes the overnight replacement for day to day routines, and panicked economic chaos drives overnight changes in political fundamentals.

A civilized, cultured and erudite pre-Hitler Germany was transformed into national thuggery, death camps, and bloody wars fought to the end. I see nothing that exempts us from this kind of transformation.

Post 68

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 2:35pmSanction this postReply
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Steve:

Thanks for that excellent, thoughtful post.

And regarding the following:

A civilized, cultured and erudite pre-Hitler Germany was transformed into national thuggery, death camps, and bloody wars fought to the end. I see nothing that exempts us from this kind of transformation.

You know, decades ago when Peikoff published "Ominous Parallels", he ended it on an(I thought)optimistic note, a kind of 'but having said all that, I think it unlikely to ever happen in America.'

Given current events and trends, I wonder if he'd be as opimistic?

I agree. There isn't just a special breed of folks in Europe who are susceptible to that kind of mass, tribal insanity, and Americans, on average, are not wildly more enlightened or educated than those Germans were. "civilized, cultured and erudite pre-Hitler Germany" is exactly right. Gangs of humans are susceptible to it, period, if they are sloppy with their culture and thinking and unfetter their state. The Social Democrats, after all, were polite cheerleaders for the state uber alles, and how do any of us protect ourselves from folks who are overcome with their latest really good idea/moral cause that justifies forced association on a mass scale?

It seems sometimes like a force of nature, like a biological plague that revisits humanity every so often, delivers its terrible lessons, and then retreats, in remission only, until the following generations bloody up the same fields for the same reasons.

regards,
Fred


Post 69

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 2:49pmSanction this postReply
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Steve:

I'm not sure what you were getting at when you said, "...I'm at a complete loss to see the upside."

I just meant, in nihilism as a primary motivation for activism, for pushing any agenda at all; a tearing down, destruction of that which is, simply because one finds that which is to be meaningless. Not even ... I don't even know what to call it, but nihilism directed at the 'old' in service of building a meaningful 'new.' Maybe 'nihilism...with benefits.' Revolutionary Nihilism.

I could understand activist motivation based on 'nihilism...with benefits.' I see the potential upside one might have for Revolutionary Nihilism.

I cannot wrap my head around 'nihilism...period' as a motivation for activism, for pressing any agenda at all. (said another way; if nothing matters, then stay the hell in bed!)

But as you well explain, motivations can include that and still be far more complex than just that.

regards,
Fred

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Post 70

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 3:43pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,
It seems sometimes like a force of nature, like a biological plague that revisits humanity every so often, delivers its terrible lessons, and then retreats, in remission only, until the following generations bloody up the same fields for the same reasons.
Yes, it seems like that. But I think it is more the on-going expression of the sum of a culture's choices expressed in two main areas: Character and belief. And what we see is the result of the aggregate choices made over time as we see a synching up our intellectual approach to life with our character as a people. When the synch is great and the intensities are high, the movement is fast and strong (for the better, or for the worse - a rebirth, or a third reich).

Where these two quantities are positive and synch well, we have a burst of human flourishing - like when the founding fathers with their character traits of independence, reverence for knowledge, deep respect for free association and a bed-rock of personal responsibility, synced that character with the intellectual thrust of Locke, Bacon, Newton, Adam Smith, and studies of ancient republics often read in the original Greek or Latin and the epistemological moves away from primitiveness to the scientific view of the universe. For a long time we continued to build on national character with the push to the west and the natural state where an individual survived without being a parasite. But, in time, the technological progress and the wealth that resulted provided the ability to make bad decisions - to steal the farmers seed corn to give to parasites to eat, even though there was no drought.

We have to have some degree of good character and some degree of objective knowledge and sound epistemology to generate serious progress that will last. When they both go into decline, when our national character is, as you put it, about running downhill and stealing from the producers, and seeking the unearned, and when our knowledge base becomes corrupt as those seeking to control others generate propaganda to put in place of knowledge and emotionalism in place of reason... then we start the move towards the bloody mess.

When all collapses, it takes some reason and some character for individuals to continue to survive amid the rubble, and to rebuild, and then comes a search for what others did in the past that was good - to recapture old knowledge.

Just as there have been, and will be, tipping points past which collapses happen fast and sudden, there is likely a tipping post of character and especially knowledge that will mark a point beyond which a culture will no longer be susceptible to that pendulum swing back. I think part of it will be in psychology - in self-awareness and self-esteem - and part of it will be in the ethical underpinning of rational self-interest.


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Post 71

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 3:53pmSanction this postReply
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Fred,
I'm not sure what you were getting at when you said, "...I'm at a complete loss to see the upside."
Now I understand.

Very pure nihilism would have to be extreme, projected self-hate. Any proclaimed 'benefits' would be thin rationalizations and near incoherent self-justifications. No one could have such a powerful, and almost universal hatred based upon a value system of some sort - hence the objects hated (nearly everything) are just objects to project on. That intensity of inner hatred would have to be projected since it would otherwise be paralyzing and a source of suicidal depression.



Post 72

Thursday, December 13, 2012 - 8:48pmSanction this postReply
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Fred and Steve I have bookmarked this thread, really good insights here. I will comment in future, I am just really busy at work at the moment.

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