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Wednesday, January 23, 2008 - 3:15pmSanction this postReply
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The study you cite was bought & paid for by George Soros just like last week's 650,000-dead-in-Iraq findings.  Failing to disclose the partisan affiliations of think tanks and centers-for is a classic technique of media bias and a good part of the reason why (almost) nobody takes them seriously any more.  Ralph Nader (remember him?) was long a beneficiary of this practice.


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Wednesday, January 23, 2008 - 3:39pmSanction this postReply
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The study you cite was bought & paid for by George Soros just like last week's 650,000-dead-in-Iraq findings.
Hmmmmmmmmm. The article you linked to simply makes this statement:
In fact, the Center for Public Integrity is a liberal-left group that has taken money from George Soros, who has compared contemporary America to Nazi Germany.
Where did you get that "bought & paid for"? If you have evidence for that it must be elsewhere than that particular article.

It looks to me like both you and the article have engaged in argumentum ad hominem.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008 - 3:45pmSanction this postReply
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Thanks, Peter.

There are knowable facts and then there are interpretive implications of knowable facts (which are most correct after thorough integration of available data). After thorough integration of the data surrounding the decision to initiate Operation Iraqi Freedom, it may be found that there was no genuine skullduggery.

One way for this to be true is if it ever becomes known that OIF was strategically-expedient. It is possible that it could become known that it wasn't, also. Politics is such a hairy mess to get into because it involves not just an answer to what it is that is the next right thing to do, but to how -- if absolutely necessary -- to spin it in order to avoid public outcry.

Another way to move forward on major political decisions is to be straightforwardly transparent: to lay out known premises, believed assumptions, and the short- and long-range goals that an action is aimed at. This type of political action was defended by Rand in her HUAC testimony, available here:

=================
...

Mr. Stripling: You have read the letter I read from Lowell Mellett?
 
Miss Rand: Yes.
 
Mr. Stripling: Which says that the picture Song Of Russia has no political implications?
 
Miss Rand: Yes.
 
Mr. Stripling: Did you at the request of Mr. Smith, the investigator for this committee, view the picture Song Of Russia?
 
Miss Rand: Yes.
 
Mr. Stripling: Within the past two weeks?
 
Miss Rand: Yes, on October 13, to be exact.
 
Mr. Stripling: In Hollywood?
 
Miss Rand: Yes.
 
Mr. Stripling: Would you give the committee a break-down of your summary of the picture relating to either propaganda or an untruthful account or distorted account of conditions in Russia? ...

...

Miss Rand: I don't believe the American people should ever be told any lies, publicly or privately. I don't believe that lies are practical. I think the international situation now rather supports me. I don't think it was necessary to deceive the American people about the nature of Russia.

I could add this: if those who saw it say it was quite all right, and perhaps there are reasons why it was all right to be an ally of Russia, then why weren't the American people told the real reasons and told that Russia is a dictatorship but there are reasons why we should cooperate with them to destroy Hitler and other dictators. All right, there may be some argument to that. Let us hear it. But of what help can it be to the war effort to tell people that we should associate with Russia and that she is not a dictatorship?
 
Mr. Wood: Let me see if I understand your position. I understand, from what you say, that because they were a dictatorship we shouldn't have accepted their help in undertaking to win a war against another dictatorship.
 
Miss Rand: That is not what I said. I was not in a position to make that decision. If I were, I would tell you what I would do. That is not what we are discussing. We are discussing the fact that our country was an ally of Russia, and the question is: what should we tell the American people about it -- the truth or a lie? If we had good reason, if that is what you believe, all right, then why not tell the truth? Say it is a dictatorship, but we want to be associated with it. Say it is worthwhile being associated with the devil, as Churchill said, in order to defeat another evil which is Hitler. There might be some good argument made for that. But why pretend that Russia was not what it was?
 
Mr. Wood: Well --
 
Miss Rand: What do you achieve by that?
 
Mr. Wood: Do you think it would have had as good an effect upon the morale of the American people to preach a doctrine to them that Russia was on the verge of collapse?
 
Miss Rand: I don't believe that the morale of anybody can be built up by a lie. If there was nothing good that we could truthfully say about Russia, then it would have been better not to say anything at all.
 
Mr. Wood: Well --
 
Miss Rand: You don't have to come out and denounce Russia during the war; no. You can keep quiet. There is no moral guilt in not saying something if you can't say it, but there is in saying the opposite of what is true. ...

...
=================

One could reread the above replacing "Russia" with "Iraq" in the attempt to extrapolate what kinds of views Rand might have on our current situation and the policies and procedures of our current leaders. I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader.

In my own "interpretation" however, it appears that the public's trust of the Executive Branch was not an over-riding goal of the current Administration (or else they'd have acted differently than they did). Now, and perhaps most importantly, this kind of a thing (the decisive sacrifice of public trust) might have been the most expedient option available -- i.e., a necessary evil aimed at a higher good. Perhaps time will answer whether that is true, but I'm not holding my breath about it.

Ed


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Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 5:35amSanction this postReply
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So what else is new?

Remember L.B.J. and the "Gulf of Tonkien Resolution"?

That one cost us 50,000 lives.

Bob Kolker


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Post 4

Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 9:42amSanction this postReply
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Right, because Vietnam was fought because of the Gulf of Tonkin cover-up, and not because the Soviet Union and Communist China were funding a proxy to take over the entire Indochina peninsula with dreams of conquering all of Southern Asia.

More anti-American venom to deal with.

Post 5

Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 11:07amSanction this postReply
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Ed, thanks.  That this could be published shows that we stll live in a free society.  I can reject the theory that President Bush "knew" there were no WMDs or ties to al-Qaida. It is more subtle than that.  President Kennedy's debacle at the Bay of Pigs as (like Pearl Harbor) an error in group-think[1].

Pres. Kennedy avoided that in the Cuban Missile Crisis because he was smart enough to understand what happened and how to fix it. In the second crisis, he brought in outsiders.  He tasked individuals to develop counter-arguments.  He absented himself from discussions so as not to influence them.  President Bush apparently only relied on his advisors as any president must.  Short of going to Iraq himself in disguise and snooping around on his own, what else could any president do?  That said, the fact remains that the decision was made and reinforced internally without strong regard for the pitfalls of group decision making.  

Peter, that is irrelevant.  If the study was paid for by or even the actual work of Osama bin Ladin, the facts are what they are independent of anyone's hopes, wishes or fears.  Certainly, it comes as no surprise.  It was nothing more or less than objective tally of public statements. 

Ed (2), nice shot with AR and HUAC.  That is exactly the point and it was apparently too subtle for some.  I have cited elsewhere (Post 75 in "Bidinotto's Facts") the statement from Margaret Mead during World War II that in order to build democracy after the war, our own govenment should stop lying to us they way they did about Pearl Harbor.  It took months for the truth to come out.  Initial reports were that the Japanese had been beaten back.  A week later (December 15, 1941, if I recall), Time was speculating that the US would strike the Japanese homeland with an amphibious assault from the Philippines.  The point is that at some level -- and it might just be your boss -- those in control --  those who see themselves as "in control" -- fail to trust the people "under" them... and that means that our "leaders" do not trust us, the people enough to tell us what truths they know.

(Or as National Lampoon had it: "What did the President know and when did he stop knowing it?")

Rick Pasotto: Nice call! On the money.

Bob Kolker:  Ditto

John: (big sigh)...  Kolker is hardly an anti-American.  If anything, he is the same kind of imperialist you are.  Being older (way older) and being (I believe) a physicist, he is a bit smarter and more capable of handling complexities.  John, I have been on the lookout for old Western Islands books when I get them at my price.  Background to Betrayal by Hilaire du Berrier is a classic about how Vietnam was lost.  Start there.  You can google Hilaire du Berrier for background to the background.

------------------------
[1]] Group think - 1)Illusion of invulnerability 2) Rationalization 3) Unquestioned belief 4) Stereotyped views 5) Intolerance to dissent 6)Self-censoring [individuals minimize themselves to conform] 7) Unanimity 8) Self-appointed mind-guards. Coined by William H. Whyte in Fortune magazine March 1952. Many resources online.


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Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 11:55amSanction this postReply
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John writes:

Right, because Vietnam was fought because of the Gulf of Tonkin cover-up, and not because the Soviet Union and Communist China were funding a proxy to take over the entire Indochina peninsula with dreams of conquering all of Southern Asia.

More anti-American venom to deal with.


I respond:

You do me an injustice. L.B.J. lied about the nature of the war. In addition he and that disaster Robert Macnammara fought the war thusly: When we reach the fifty yard line we punt.

How many games are fought this way. That Genius Macnammara didn't believe in fighting the foe with maximum force. For him it was all about "sending messages to the other side". If I had the say I would have sent a message: I would have nuked Hanoi.

I would prefer that the U.S. only fight wars it has to fight, but when it does fight, I want to see a fight to win.

Bob Kolker


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Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 11:57amSanction this postReply
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John: (big sigh)... Kolker is hardly an anti-American. If anything, he is the same kind of imperialist you are. Being older (way older) and being (I believe) a physicist, he is a bit smarter and more capable of handling complexities.


Ok Marotta, so if the standard of evaluation here for who can better handle complexities is determined by profession, why don't we compare jobs. What's yours?

Robert Kolker

You do me an injustice. L.B.J. lied about the nature of the war. In addition he and that disaster Robert Macnammara fought the war thusly: When we reach the fifty yard line we punt.

How many games are fought this way. That Genius Macnammara didn't believe in fighting the foe with maximum force. For him it was all about "sending messages to the other side". If I had the say I would have sent a message: I would have nuked Hanoi.


And I thought Macnammara was bad. You would've nuked Hanoi? And what do you think the response from the Soviet Union and China would've been?
(Edited by John Armaos on 1/24, 12:00pm)


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Thursday, January 24, 2008 - 2:38pmSanction this postReply
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How many games are fought this way. That Genius Macnammara didn't believe in fighting the foe with maximum force. For him it was all about "sending messages to the other side". 

As Eli Wallach said in The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly - if ye gonna fight, fight - don't stand there and talk about it...


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Saturday, January 26, 2008 - 7:50pmSanction this postReply
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RJK wrote: " If I had the say I would have sent a message: I would have nuked Hanoi."
Well, so much for that "complexity" thing... 
John Armaos wrote: ... And what do you think the response from the Soviet Union and China would've been?
The USSR and China would have done little or nothing.  They would have complained, of course.  In the first place, they were bullies who would back down in the face of confrontation.  We know that for a fact of history.  That is your own assertion, that the USA should have been more forceful in VietNam and "fought to win." That assertion rests on the premise that an   overhelming American effort in VietNam would not have escalated to World War III, but would have resulted in a limited victory -- limited to the geography of SE Asia. 

 More to the point, China was unable to engage because of the Cultural Revolution.  They were in chaos.  After defeating South Vietnam, North Vietnam turned around and pushed back against China and won.  The North Vietnamese government was wary of China and rightfully so.  In fact, that is one of the factors in the loss ("betrayal") of Vietnam.  It is not clear that Ho Chi Minh was committed to "communism" as opposed to being committed to Ho Chi Minh.  It was an anti-colonial struggle and they did not want to be colonized by the traditional power to the north.  Viet Nam means "southern place" in Chinese.  They used Chinese characters and Chinese money and were part of China's history for centuries, independent now and then... and that is how they liked it...  Ho Chi Minh was misunderstood ("mismanaged") by the State Department.  The USA made an enemy out of a neutral.  Marx or no Marx, Lenin or no Lenin, the failure was a failure of ideology, the failure to provide a pro-capitalist, anti-colonialist explanation to justify the liberation of this little place from outside influences.  It could have been three small countries with all the advantages thereto. 

Furthermore, the capabilites of the USSR were greatly overplayed in part to keep the US population in line with fear of a powerful enemy which necessitated centralized military-industrial government here.

John, do you honestly believe that socialism is so efficacious that the USSR after fighting Germany for five years could have any capability to build long range bombers and missiles?  Yes, they launched satellites and put men in orbit to prove that they could build ICBMs.  Do you think that they were actually so efficacious as to be able to build hundreds of reliable ICBMs and atomic weapons?  And maintain them....  They could not even feed their own people. 

John, if you understood Atlas Shrugged, you would have to wonder if the USA was even capable of all that: hundreds and hundreds of repeatably working incredibly complex systems, built under govenment contract and managed by the military.  If that were actually practicable, capitalism would be a lie and we should then engage the command economy.  Is it your thesis that American fascism was superior to Russian fascism (and German fascism, and Etc. fascism) because of the "spirit" of the American people?

As for Viet Nam, I am not sure if any military strategy could have won.  Like all wars, this had nothing to do with weapons and everything to do with hearts and minds.  The USA failed to deliver the philosophy of reason and rights because the USA was not articulating it within the USA either.  VietNam was a war of ideology.  Theirs was Marxism-Leninism, scientific socialism, resting on the philosophy of dialectic materialism.  What was the USA's?  What was South Vietnam's?


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Sunday, January 27, 2008 - 4:30pmSanction this postReply
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The USSR and China would have done little or nothing.


To a nuclear attack on one of its proxies? You are living on cloud 9.

John, do you honestly believe that socialism is so efficacious that the USSR after fighting Germany for five years could have any capability to build long range bombers and missiles? Yes, they launched satellites and put men in orbit to prove that they could build ICBMs. Do you think that they were actually so efficacious as to be able to build hundreds of reliable ICBMs and atomic weapons? And maintain them.... They could not even feed their own people.


Are you stupid? They did build long range bombers and missiles so what are you going on about? You're right they couldn't feed their own people because they spent 60% of their GDP on their military.

By the way you didn't answer my first question, what job do you have so that by your standards we can evaluate who can better understand complexities?



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Monday, January 28, 2008 - 7:27amSanction this postReply
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60 Minutes interview with Saddam's interrogator.

(CBS) For a man who drew America into two wars and countless military engagements, we never knew what Saddam Hussein was thinking. But you are going to hear more than has ever been revealed before.

After his capture, Saddam met every day with one man, an American he knew as "Mr. George." George is FBI agent George Piro, who was the front man for a team of FBI and CIA analysts who were trying to answer some of the great mysteries of recent history. What happened to the weapons of mass destruction? Was Saddam in league with al Qaeda? Why did he choose war with the United States?

As correspondent Scott Pelley reports, Piro is the man who came to know Saddam better than anyone, as they sat face to face in a windowless room.


Piro is totally believable and provides answers to almost all the major questions wrt Saddam's motives. If you missed 60 minutes you must see this.

Sam



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Post 12

Monday, January 28, 2008 - 7:27amSanction this postReply
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Micharl Marotta wrote:


"It is not clear that Ho Chi Minh was committed to "communism" as opposed to being committed to Ho Chi Minh."


He was a founder of the French Communist party in the 20's, I don't know what more you need to do to show your committment to something. He wrote prolifically on his vision of a communist utopia Vietnam.


Like all wars, this had nothing to do with weapons and everything to do with hearts and minds. The USA failed to deliver the philosophy of reason and rights because the USA was not articulating it within the USA either. VietNam was a war of ideology. Theirs was Marxism-Leninism, scientific socialism, resting on the philosophy of dialectic materialism. What was the USA's? What was South Vietnam's


Oh, like South Korea - What was the US's philosophy guiding it there?

The Vietnam war was WON and OVER, the Vietnamization program was succesfull and South Vietnam in all likely could have continued to defend itself with only material support from the US, just like South Korea has done for 50+ years. The democratically controlled congress rescinded ALL military support for Vietnam, paving the way for the Soviet backed communist north with the help of the liberal idiots in the US to regurgitate defeat from the Jaws of Victory.

Post 13

Tuesday, January 29, 2008 - 7:54pmSanction this postReply
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According to Jerry Pournelle, science advisor to congress and major science fiction writer, as well as the co-instigator of the SDI gambit, Vietnam was fought in order to punish the Russians.   According to Pournelle, the U.S. virtually gutted Russia's infrastructure by means of blowing up billions of dollars worth of Russian trucks, tanks, etc. on the Ho Chi Min trail. 

The Russians were determined that their allies, the North Vietnamese, were going to triumph over the U.S.   This was part and parcel of their grand strategy for taking over the third world.  Win in Vietnam to show the rest of the 3rd World that they had better side with the commies, and that the U.S. could be beaten.

Superficially it almost seems like they made their point.  But, according to Pournelle, McNamera's strategy was to convince the Russians that they could win and force them to keep raising the ante, sucking every truck out of Russia down to SouthEast Asia to be blown up.  Thus, he never pushed for a final victory, but rather for a slow attrition that looked as if the U.S. were stupid.  However, the U.S. could afford the losses.  The Russians could not.

McNamera's mistake, however, also according to Pournelle, was to take the gradualist route, only upping the stakes in reaction to the Russian's doing something the U.S. didn't like, somewhere else, such as Africa or Central America.  What Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven did was to to convince Reagan to call their bluff, via SDI, aka Star Wars.

Niven and Pournelle reportedly called a meeting, unprecedented in history perhaps, of about 40 of so of the top military and defence-related scientific minds at Pournelle's home, where they worked out the details of the scam.  SDI was never real, even though it cost almost as much as a real effort.  It was a total bluff to convince the Russians that they would have to outspend the U.S. to defeat our supposed missile shield.  And it worked.


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Tuesday, January 29, 2008 - 9:50pmSanction this postReply
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Niven and Pournelle reportedly called a meeting...
In late 1984, Mike Hoy of Loompanics asked me to write an article advocating the lifting of all export bans on 16-bit computers to the USSR.  "Why would I want them to have computers?" I asked.  
"Think about it," he replied. So I did.  The export restrictions were lifted first to Poland. 
Marotta, Michael E.,  "Computers and the Totalitarian State," Prometheus, Libertarian Futurist Society, Vol. 3, No. 4, Fall 1985 (Originally published 1985 by Loompanics Greatest Book Catalog in the World, 1985.)

But it pales in comparison to Erwin S. Strauss's Basement Nukes: Social Consequences of Cheap Weapons of Mass Destruction (1979).  Strauss's thesis is that just as the barons of the middle ages could not resist the gunpowder cannonades that battered their castle walls, today's nation-states are unable to defend their citizens against  asymmetrical warfare.  The solution is a world of homeowner associations, proprietary communities and gated villages.


When Gravity Fails is a cyberpunk science fiction novel by George Alec Effinger published in 1986. Taking place in a futuristic Middle-Eastern setting, the series reverses some of the usual expectations of a future world order by painting the West in decline while Muslim countries seem to prosper.  -- Wikipedia
 


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Friday, February 1, 2008 - 9:51amSanction this postReply
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That Bush or other Administration officials might have lied wouldn't be any surprise. They are politicians after all. But apparently, as far as liars go, they are in the company of some real experts.

Clinton, Kennedy, Gore, et al on Hussein's WMD


John Kerry, noting that “Saddam Hussein [could] not account for all the Weapons of Mass Destruction which UNSCOM identified,” stated: “People have forgotten that for seven and a half years, we found weapons of mass destruction. We were destroying weapons of mass destruction.” “The threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real,” added Kerry, “…[and] he has continued to build those weapons.”


Hillary Clinton declared unequivocally: “In the four years since the inspectors left [Iraq], intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members. It is clear…that if left unchecked, [he] will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons.” These claims constituted a seamless transition from the claims made by Hillary’s husband, Bill Clinton, during the latter years of his presidency in 1998 and 1999.


According to former Vice President Al Gore, “We know that [Saddam] has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country…Iraq’s search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power.”


Senator Ted Kennedy concurred: “We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction…There is no doubt that [his] regime is a serious danger, that he is a tyrant, and that his pursuit of lethal weapons of mass destruction cannot be tolerated. He must be disarmed.”


In John Edwards’ estimation, “Saddam Hussein’s regime represents a grave threat to America and our allies…We know that he has chemical and biological weapons…We know that he is doing everything he can to build nuclear weapons, and we know that each day he gets closer to achieving that goal.”


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Saturday, February 2, 2008 - 3:33amSanction this postReply
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First of all, Jeff, it's not that Bush might have lied, but did (so drop the blatant pretense). To state that Iraq has WMDs and links to al-Qaida, to state these unequivocally, doesn't leave room for might-have's or maybe's.

Also, I find it telling that you compared Bush to the Liberal Left. I just heard him categorized by either Jason Lewis, Sean Hannity, or Rush Limbaugh as being part of the Liberal wing of the Republicans -- a group of individuals which I have integrated under the term: NeoCon.

If that NeoCon name bothers you, fine, use Big Government Republicans (BGRs) -- I don't care. Just don't call Bush, or any of them, Conservatives -- because that would be a false definition (by nonessentials).

Ed


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