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Saturday, August 25, 2012 - 8:43pmSanction this postReply
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Good article, Ed.
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The struggle in the Republican Party between a group made up of the moderates, the Neo-Cons, and the establishment Republican, pitted against a group made up of the Conservatives and Libertarians will end up with the Conservative/Libertarian group winning over time. That's my prediction and here's the reasoning:
  • The country is both war-weary and unable to sustain the financial drain of the Neo-Cons' big government.
  • The moderates are an intellectual/ideological dead-end and have lost the support of middle America - that makes their time limited and some will be able to hold on for a term or two based upon personal recognition, but then they won't be as likely to be replaced with someone as moderate.
  • The establishment has no ideology and it evolves, as needed, to grasp the reins of backroom power while adopting whatever ideology appears to hold sway in the Republican mainstream.
  • The Republican mainstream has been moving to the Right.
  • And it is a Right that has been strongly influenced by Libertarian ideas and empowered by the Tea Party.
This adds up to Republican party with a stronger and more clearly defined grasp of fiscal conservative and constitutional conservative principles and the establishment that supports it growing, while the old establishment and moderates fade away.

The problem is the social conservatives. Those who insist on using the Republican Party to push religious views. Those who put religious views ahead of either fiscal or constitutional principles.

As the party moves to the right the issue will arise and I believe that there will be more and more who will demand that religious view be left out of the political arena. The alternative is that the Republicans will forever be saddled with these strange anti-gay, and anti-abortion, and pro-prayer agendas that actually divide them from too many voters and too many in the coming generations.

The demand that religious views be left out of the political arena won't lose the votes of the social conservatives because too many of them are also fiscal and constitutional conservatives. What it will lose is the energy and activism of the evangelical base, but in the long term, I think that's what they have to do to become a grown-up political party.

Even if things go this way, it doesn't eliminate the problem of having those who insist on bringing religion into politics, and it won't diminish their drive or change their views, it will just push them into something of a political limbo where they will be as noisy, but perhaps not as powerful. (Maybe I'm just being hopeful?)

All of this is not my way of saying that the Republican Party is going to become the standard bearer for rational politics, because that could only happen if a significant portion of the population acquires a much better understanding of rational egoism and Capitalism then we could expect in such a short time. It is just me guessing at what trends might appear in the next decade. (But just as soon as I wrote that last sentence I remembered that we are likely to see a major economic crisis before then, and that could change all bets.)

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Sunday, August 26, 2012 - 7:50pmSanction this postReply
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Ayn Rand never got past Wendell Wilkie. She continued to issue statements of praise and blame for Republican candidates. Of course, she also repudiated the Libertarians. And she condemned Hubert Humphrey for looking like a kewpie doll.  Regarding the Republicans, she said nothing about Robert Taft - "Mr. Republican" - and his brand of conservatism, even though he was honored in John F. Kennedy's Profiles in Courage.

That leaves "None of the Above" which is arguably the truly consistent, objective appraisal.  Rand did say - correctly, I believe - that politics is a consequence of philosophy, that to change the political climate, one must begin at a deeper level of understanding.  Certainly, the ethics of egoism are the moral foundation of capitalism - and the GOP is not going to endorse the virtue of selfishness, as the case of Paul Ryan so clearly proved.

This week, I was honored to be the luncheon guest of an international businessman, who came to America after two moves in Europe.  We talked politics and he said that he is a European conservative.  I did not argue when he suggested that the Ron Paul libertarians in the GOP only care about legalizing drugs.  I did not disagree much about anything as I was there to listen.

We did agree on one thing I suggested.  He said that Romney's talking about Obama's birth certificate will only come back to bite Romney by forcing his off-shore accounts to become public information.  I said that Romney should announce his off-shore accounts and recommend them to others as a good way to protect your money from the ravages of excessive government. He laughed in agreement, but we shook our heads, knowing that this will never happen.

The fact that Romney has been as busy covering his tracks, as Obama was in creating his, explains why anyone objectively interested in their own freedom will not waste much time unraveling today's political rhetoric. The only people running for office are Eugene Lawson, Claude Slaggenhop, Wesley Mouch, Mr. Thompson, and Cuffy Meigs.

Steve suggested:  The alternative is that the Republicans will forever be saddled with these strange anti-gay, and anti-abortion, and pro-prayer agendas that actually divide them from too many voters and too many in the coming generations. The demand that religious views be left out of the political arena won't lose the votes of the social conservatives because too many of them are also fiscal and constitutional conservatives.


Atheists are the most hated people in America.  Homosexuals, politicians, and used car dealers have higher rankings of approval among most Americans.  I do agree, though, that your analysis may be valid given a dynamic substrate of unmeasured disbelief.  I mean if you add up the explicit atheists, and the explicit agnostics, and those who do not attend church, but who claim to believe in a Supreme Being, you get to about 16% of the poll samples.  (See Pew poll and follow other links from here. And then see more narrowly here.)  

Religion is powerful.  Any mainstream anthropologist will say that like language and tools, religion is a defining parameter for any and every society and civilization.  Just to say, we here want to believe that a new a better future is one without religion (but with government).  I could argue that religion, government, and family are just our simian past, that our future trajectory of better - if not perfect - rationalism and realism is one without religion, family, or government, a universe of automonous individuals who would no more violate each other's rights than you would shoot yourself in the foot. ... Just sayin' the future is whatever you want to imagine...

(Edited by Michael E. Marotta on 8/26, 7:51pm)


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