| | This is why I support non-Objectivist Thomas Barnett's ideas - they are rational, they are optimistic without being unrealistics, and they are being treated seriously by people who actually can enact them. For example, here is a recent blog quote from him:
Another defeatist-style analysis of "war within the context of war"The conservative version of viewing the Long War strictly within the context of war says we need to go very kinetic, a la the Israelis, and keep the regions of disconnectedness as disconnected as possible. Firewall ourselves off from them. Kill the baddies as required. Harbor no illusions anything can get better. We "contain" the evil and live with the dream that somehow it goes away on its own someday, when of course it won't and instead is likely to grow, become more aggressive in its trapped-ness, and strike out at us more frequently in the 9/11 vein in attempts to socialize their pain and their problems. (my note - ...and the ultra-conservatives or "bomb and kill them all" crowd is even worse, a veritable "kill them all and let God sort 'em out" strategy)
The right does not want to own the "war within the context of everything else" because that forces them to consider the postwar to be as/more important as/than the war, and they don't want to own the backside. They want their wars simple and over with as quickly as possible, and if they're completely fruitless when waged in this manner, well... that's called realism. So no SysAdmin for this crowd.
The left-defeatist version of viewing "war within the context of war" is simply to point out the futility of waging war in this manner, with no vision for or reference to the second-half peace-waging effort. When the second half is discussed, it's done within the context of white man's guilt, so it's all a matter of just giving these people lotsa money. But doing any of the necessary up-front work to clear the baddies? That's all a failure so why bother doing it?
The rightist argument is just so cynical, but the leftist one is so amazingly silly. This guy (linked to some leftist article in NYT) describes how we're losing because the enemy is so willing to remain in his disconnected, bombed-out state that when Israel comes with all its "technology," the insurgents are able to "win" by destroying their society and economy to such a state that this level playing field favors them. So eventually Israel will withdrawal and the result will be what? Israel will continue to live this connected, far more stable and prosperous life and Lebanon will be subject to years or decades of rebuilding, meanwhile living out the "victory" in relative deprivation and disconnectedness and--if Hezbollah has its way--incredible denial of freedom.
This is akin to the "great victory" of the Viet Cong in Vietnam. Read your Vietnamese history from 1975-1995. Some victory. Now Vietnam opens up like crazy, teaches English, jumps through its rear-end to attract American FDI, and turns as capitalistic and connected as quickly as possible, lest it get left behind in China's incredibly marketized wake.
Yes, yes, we "lost" in Vietnam. It just took us three decades for the Vietnamese to recognize that. Their millions of dead paved the way for what exactly? The ultimate pervasiveness of our economic system throughout the region?
Ah, but only our enemies think in such long-term ways. Better for us to declare defeat as quickly as possible wherever possible.
Our pyrrhic victories come when we try to wage war solely within the context of war, believing that the kinetics are all we need to pursue, but the opposition's definition of pyrrhic victory is much the same: pretending that the "honorable" choice of self-destruction in order to preserve control over land and people somehow defines their successful denial of our encroaching networks.
So where are the great victories of this war by "not losing," as this writer argues? Where is Pakistan today? Where is Afghanistan? Where is Iraq? How is life better for the average Iranian? How's Lebanon compared to five years ago? How's Palestine? Where are their great victories in denying freedom and development?
Or do they look like the same old shit of poverty, violence, degradation, and power at the barrel of a gun? Ah, but the terrorists rule our connected world! Let's not forget that. So where are their victories in our world?
Add up all the alleged freedom lost in our world since 9/11 and it's lost in the white noise of our increasingly connected society. Go back and read all the arguments on America's loss of privacy due to the rise of info technology and whatnot prior to 9/11 and ask yourself where the significant additional loss can be found because you won't find it. Anything the government now thinks it can do to you the marketers were long planning and in most cases already snooping.
Connectivity requires code. It's as simple as that. The more connected you are, the more safe and convenient and enriching your life is, but the more rules you become subject to. The Long War has influenced that trajectory, but hardly defines it, except for the conspiracy types who were glad to shift their fantasies about corporations to the government. Ah, but the terrorists have slowed down our economies and derailed globalization! Complete bullshit unsupported by any facts, but live in that world if you must.
Terrorists don't run anything in our world except our fantasies, but we've always needed some bogeyman and these guys will do quite nicely for the here and foreseeable future, and yes, the defeatists both left and right will blow up their significance to unbelievable proportions, constantly working to convince us that we're really "losing" when globalization continues to chug along, lifting millions upon millions of people out of poverty each year around the world and knitting it ever closer, making it safer, more resilient, more connected.
Terrorists can and will enter that connected world, and their impact will be limited to that of "star" criminals (another ever-present American fascination) who capture our imagination but whose impact on our lives will be about as fantastic as death by meteors and comets and choking on Big Macs (actually, as John Mueller of Ohio points out in his new book--that's about the statistical reality--even today in this amazingly "dangerous world"). We'll "fight" terrorists at home with cops, and we'll win the vast majority of the time.
Inside the Gap, we'll still need the military to clear the bad brush on a regular basis, but if we build nothing in that stead we'll end up with nothing but continued trouble. And yes, if the insurgents and terrorists of the Gap continue to "win" by "not losing" against our Leviathan-like efforts, their "great victory" will consist of continued shitty lives filled with deprivation, violence and the lack of freedom (as much or more the lack of economic freedom than political).
We can have two pointless answers to this perceived "loss": we can lament it and withdraw, only to regularly return to replicate the killing strokes of the Leviathan (the Right's defeatism), or we can lament it and withdraw and pay the locals cynical bribes in the form of foreign aid that accomplishes nothing (the Left's defeatism).
Or we can get better at the second half, extend our nets, make new markets, deliver real freedom, and render terrorists the same glorified criminals in a shrunken Gap that they are in a connected expanding Core. And the technology we bring won't be about killing. It'll be about connecting.
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