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Saturday, December 22, 2012 - 2:13pmSanction this postReply
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My oldest son asked me what I wanted for Christmas.

I told him, I wanted him to find one of these Mayan/end of world folks, tie him to our Christmas tree, and let me just slap him silly all day on the 25th.

He just came home, I picked him up on the bus, but I don't see him carrying any large, squirming packages.

Is there still hope for Xmas day?



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Sunday, December 23, 2012 - 4:56amSanction this postReply
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The calander was not complete!
Savages ran out of stone before it was finished!!

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Sunday, December 23, 2012 - 11:00amSanction this postReply
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Nice post, as is your habit, Edward. 
Clear-thinking individuals often don't understand why folks with even a minimum of intelligence and education can fall for this stuff.
Third, to be rational doesn’t simply mean to memorize the forms of the syllogism or to master the knowledge and technical skills needed to be successful in some narrow field or profession. ...  Rationality means always being honest with one’s self. It means always asking, “Am I trying to get at the truth or simply to rationalize some prejudice or convenient belief that bears little resemblance to reality?”

We would have to include ourselves, each of us, perhaps to some extent - and I confess, too -- but broadly and deeply to many of our own committed Objectivist and libertarian comrades who expect the end of the world.  They prepare for it. They hope for it.  I highly recommend The Future and Its Enemies by Reason editor Virginia Postrel. 


It is true that history provides examples of good and bad choices and their consequences. And we do have theory to explain why those events developed as they did.  The Roman emperor Diocletian might not have had experience or reason enough not to freeze wages and prices -- and then wonder why his reform of the currency failed.  We can see his mistakes and explain them.  So, it is true that the rolling idiocy from Washington DC just makes a rational person shake their head in sorrow. 

That being true, however, civilization is not going to collapse - the world is not going to end - just because Barack Obama is president.

Diocletian's reforms failed because the markets responded to them as people acted in their own personal best interests based on the information at hand.

The so-called "collapse" or "downfall" of the Roman empire took centuries. Even as the city of Rome was being sacked by the Goths, new villas were being built at Ostia on the coast.  King Offa of Mercia in England (757-796) struck silver pennies in the style of Islamic coins. If he himself was not a Muslim (unlikely, but possible), then it indicates active trade with the southern tier Mediterranean during the so-called "Dark Ages."  Gerbert d'Aurillac (946-1003) studied mathematics (and more) at schools in Spain of the Umayyad caliphate before becoming Pope Sylvester II.

Some times are better than others.  Some places are better off than others.  We know the reasons why and ideas have consequences.  Butl life pretty much goes on and civilization mostly develops for the better for all.

(Edited by Michael E. Marotta on 12/23, 11:01am)


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Wednesday, December 26, 2012 - 6:49amSanction this postReply
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Michael,

Very good point. I watched the Glenn Beck/Penn Jilette interview posted on here a few weeks ago. One of my favorite quotes from Penn was the following:

"Two things have been true throughout history: Things are always getting better, and people always think things are getting worse"

I'm not sure how long the world has been going to hell in a hand-basket for, but I'd wager it's been since the beginning of time. Or at least since man started making tools. Yet life goes on, and the standard of living keeps getting better. Sometimes we get so caught up in how bad things are that we forget to enjoy how good things really are!

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012 - 10:23amSanction this postReply
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Here we have an issue of context.

When someone uses the phrase, "throughout history," they are smoothing out a lot of bumps. It's true that the overall trend has been up, but there were many, many times where great numbers of people died as the consequence of downturns we have since recovered from. We don't do well at holding long-term dangers near the front of our minds. What is more than two or three generations away from living memory becomes academic and doesn't necessarily get the attention it should.

Is the world facing a major downturn coming because of the historically unique global debt situation? I don't see how it can be avoided, but only time will tell whether that is a myoptic, chicken-little view or not. And who knows what the timeframe might be.

Penn Jillet makes an excellent point, and even if things were going to go bad in a serious way, and for a long time, it would be no reason not to enjoy all that one can. One's personal happiness shouldn't be tied any more closely than neccessary to the general trends.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012 - 11:16amSanction this postReply
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This all reminds me of what Peikoff wrote, in OPAR, about the "benevolent universe" premise vs. the "Pollyanna" approach.

Pg. 340:

The ability to achieve values, I must add, is useless if one is stopped from exercising that ability—e.g., if an individual is caught in a dictatorship; or is suffering from a terminal illness; or loses an irreplaceable person essential to his very existence as a valuer, as may occur in the death of a beloved wife or husband. In such situations,suffering (or stoicism) is all that is possible. Morality is a means to action in the world;the soul by itself is not an entity, an end, or a fulfillment. Character alone, therefore,deprived of the necessary existential context, will not produce happiness, not even metaphysical pleasure. There is no joy in being alive if one cannot live.

Virtue does ensure happiness, at least in the metaphysical sense—except when life itself becomes impossible to a man, because, for some reason, the pursuit of values becomes impossible.

And pg. 343:

The question is not 'What's the use?" but "What can I do?"

"We do not think that tragedy is our natural fate and we do not live in chronic dread of disaster [explains a character in ATLAS SHRUGGED.] We do not expect disaster until we have specific reason to expect it-and when we encounter it, we are free to fight it. It is not happiness, but suffering that we consider unnatural."

This view of the world becomes in due course self-fulfilling prophecy (as does its opposite). The man who refuses to blame his problems on reality thereby keeps alive his only means of solving them.

The benevolent-universe premise has nothing to do with "optimism," if this means Leibniz's idea that "all is for the best." A great many things are clearly for the worst. Nor does the premise mean that "the truth will prevail," unless one adds the critical word "ultimately." Nor is benevolence the attitude of a Pollyanna; it is not the pretense that there is always a chance of success, even in those situations where there isn't any. The corrective to all these errors, however, is not "pessimism," which is merely another form of pretense.

The corrective is realism, i.e., the recognition of reality, along with the knowledge of life that this brings: the knowledge that happiness, though scarce, is no miracle.



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Sunday, December 30, 2012 - 12:22pmSanction this postReply
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Great quotes, Joe.

You know, Peikoff may be hated in some circles (and loved in others), but I really like him. Every instance to which I have been exposed to either audio, video, or his writing has had a good impression on me. It's admittedly an appeal to the argument from intimidation, but how can you persistently dislike a man who wrote what it is that Joe quoted above?

How?

It strikes me that he has such a benevolent sense of life. Yeah, sure, he poured some fuel on a few fires in his day (rough split from David Kelley, fallout with John P. McCaskey, etc.), but it's not like he unilaterally created those fires ex nihilo -- like our current politicians do (creating public crises to obtain, via deception, what they privately want). In my view, he deserves more credit for his gifts to mankind.

Ed


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Tuesday, January 1, 2013 - 3:26amSanction this postReply
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Well I tend to agree Ed, after all there is a REASON AR made him heir and executor.

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Wednesday, January 2, 2013 - 7:27amSanction this postReply
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Not soon:

The GOP protests were vindicated in part by a Tuesday afternoon projection by the Congressional Budget Office that the measure would add roughly $4 trillion to deficits projected over the next decade. That projection is relative to a baseline in which all of the George W. Bush-era tax rates would have expired—a massive tax hike for the entire country that would reduce the national debt but throw the economy into a downturn.


Read more at http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/01/02/Fractious-GOP-House-Passes-Senate-Tax-Cliff-Bill.aspx#lpdz8DAR83cvfHeS.99



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Wednesday, January 2, 2013 - 11:05amSanction this postReply
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...a massive tax hike for the entire country that would reduce the national debt but throw the economy into a downturn.
These people just don't get it. You can't have a massive tax hike and the resulting downturn and yet think that revenues will increase. And even if the revenues did increase, there is no indication the increase wouldn't be used for new spending! Sheesh! What idiots!

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