| | Curtis,
(Re #37)
Try thinking of "Bayesianism" as a sort of mental martial art... and try to imagine that the definition of 'virtue' used as a technical term by Objectivism isn't the entire meaning of the word. The twelve virtues described on the link aren't supposed to be the /only/ twelve virtues, but are meant as ways to help you improve your rational thinking. Nothing New Agey about it, any more than learning how to apply Jujutsu for self-defense is New Agey.
Ed,
(Re #38)
> but this statement above implies a primacy of > consciousness,
No, only that it can be difficult for a questioner to dissociate themself from a set of questions in a topic close to their heart enough to have a /truly/ objective questionnaire rather than a questionnaire they only /think/ is objective. There are some well-practiced methods to help remove unconscious questioner bias, and it would be well worth your while to read up on them - you can probably find it somewhere under 'statistics', depending on where you look.
> Another appeal to omniscience as the standard of > knowledge?
You raise this point at least three times... and I think it comes from one or more misconceptions you may be under about Bayesian theory. I'm not really sure whether I'm the best to explain it to an Objectivist in Objectivist terms, since, as has been demonstrated, I understand Objectivism less well than I thought I did.
Hm, let's try a parallel, to give you an idea of the /level/ of mistake you're making. Your misunderstanding of Bayesianism is approximately the same magnitude as if I were to suggest (which I'm not) that since Objectivism says the universe is objective, then everything has an objective value in and of itself. It's a completely understandable mistake to be made, but it's still a mistake that makes those who understand the topic better grit their teeth in frustration.
>>> The difference between your view and the Objectivist one >>> is made clear here. Daniel, can you tell me how would >>> you get natural evidence (the only kind humans have) of >>> the supernatural?
>> Pick a particular supernatural claim, and I can give >> a better answer.
> God exists. Now, how would you use science to prove that?
"I wouldn't - science doesn't prove, it just disproves." Ahem.
Not to be snarky, but which God are you referring to, and more importantly, what attributes is that God claimed to possess? Zeus? Vishnu? The Great Manitou? Or, most likely, the God of Abraham? Specific claims are generally made about such gods - in particular, in how they interact with the universe and mortals. Such claims are what makes a particular God-hypothesis testable; http://whywontgodhealamputees.com/ is an investigation of one power claimed to be held by God.
> This "frequency distribution" theory is not a good theory > of knowledge
And here is rather firm evidence that you /don't/ understand Bayesian theory, which is specifically and emphatically /not/ about frequencies. I've offered a link to an introduction on Bayesian theory, and I'll offer it again: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes . If you're not willing to read even that, then there isn't much more I can do to help you learn and understand Bayesianism.
> Another way to say this is that you can't integrate your > knowledge (including estimates of when the sun burns out, > etc), you just have to count things as if the human mind > were an abacus.
That's kind of the /opposite/ of the point I was making, which, I'll try to rephrase, is that /if/ the only information you have is the number of times the sun has risen, then that formula applies. If you have more information, then the /full/ Bayesian theory (described in the above link) applies, and tells you how strongly you should believe a particular proposition given a given amount of evidence.
> This makes truth into a popularity contest; even if it's > a contest among scholars.
The scientific consensus on a topic is, in general, the best source of information on that subject; http://atheistethicist.blogspot.com/2009/12/climate-change-summary-position-part-ii.html (and the related posts in that blog) describe why better than I could myself.
> How about if I compare how sure I am about this to > whether a pencil will drop when I let go of it -- is that > a good standard?
Maybe. Here, I'll let go of a pencil myself...
... now isn't that interesting - it didn't drop at all.
Can you imagine why that might be? :)
> Please use your hands to type out what the Bayesian > probability is that you exist.
Your challenge contains insufficient data to complete. Like value-judgements in Objectivism, Bayesian probability isn't an absolute number; Bayesian probabilities about the same premises vary from individual to individual. I can't tell you what some sort of 'absolute' Bayesian probability on my existence is; the best I could do would be to suggest what a /particular person's/ Bayesian probability for my existence would be.
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